313
FGUS63 KKRF 221428
ESGOSG

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1021 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2024

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  10/26/2024  - 01/24/2025

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:LITTLE OSAGE R AT FULTON KS
FTNK1              22.0  25.0  30.0    10   23    8   20   <5   <5
:LITTLE OSAGE R AT HORTON MO 1N
HTNM7              41.0  45.0  50.0    15   43    5    9   <5   <5
:MARMATON R AT FT SCOTT KS NO.2
FSKK1              38.0  42.0  43.0     7   10   <5    7   <5   <5
:MARMATON R AT NEVADA MO 2NW
NVDM7              20.0  26.0  31.0    15   52   13   15   <5    6
:OSAGE R AT TABERVILLE MO
TBVM7              23.0  34.0  46.0    12   19   <5    5   <5   <5
:SAC R AT CAPLNGR MILLS MO 5N
CMZM7              16.0  19.0  28.0    17   25   14   22    5    5
:SOUTH GRAND R AT URICH MO 1S
URHM7              24.0  26.0  33.0     8   21    6   17   <5   <5
:BIG CR AT BLAIRSTOWN MO 1SW
BLRM7              20.0  23.0  36.0    18   55   12   33   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410212221/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024  - 01/24/2025

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:LITTLE OSAGE R
FTNK1       2.5/    2.5/    2.6/    4.0/    5.1/   22.6/   27.0
HTNM7      27.3/   27.4/   28.7/   32.4/   34.6/   43.6/   45.3

:MARMATON R
FSKK1       6.8/    6.9/    8.0/   11.1/   14.9/   35.9/   39.5
NVDM7       2.3/    2.4/    3.1/    8.0/   15.0/   28.1/   29.6

:OSAGE R
TBVM7       7.9/    7.9/    8.1/    9.9/   12.7/   24.7/   30.0

:SAC R
CMZM7       6.7/    6.7/    6.8/    7.5/   11.6/   21.5/   27.8

:SOUTH GRAND R
URHM7       3.5/    3.7/    4.3/    6.3/   11.0/   22.8/   26.8

:BIG CR
BLRM7       6.9/    7.0/    7.8/   15.2/   18.0/   23.8/   25.3
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410212221/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF

:            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024  - 01/24/2025

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:LITTLE OSAGE R
FTNK1       2.4/    2.4/    2.4/    2.4/    2.4/    2.4/    2.4
HTNM7      25.5/   25.5/   25.5/   25.5/   25.5/   25.5/   25.5

:MARMATON R
FSKK1       6.3/    6.3/    6.3/    6.3/    6.3/    6.3/    6.3
NVDM7       1.8/    1.8/    1.8/    1.8/    1.8/    1.8/    1.8

:OSAGE R
TBVM7       7.8/    7.8/    7.8/    7.7/    7.7/    7.7/    7.7

:SAC R
CMZM7       5.0/    5.0/    5.0/    5.0/    5.0/    5.0/    5.0

:SOUTH GRAND R
URHM7       2.5/    2.4/    2.1/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0

:BIG CR
BLRM7       6.8/    6.8/    6.2/    5.6/    3.4/    2.4/    2.4

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$