Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Lower Mississippi RFC
Issued by NWS Lower Mississippi RFC
690
FGUS64 KORN 121408
ESGORN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER SLIDELL LA
734 PM CDT Tuesday, March 11, 2025
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
: VALID PERIOD 03/11/2025 - 06/09/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Black River
ANNM7 8.0 15.0 25.0 26 76 6 18 <5 <5
PPBM7 16.0 19.0 21.0 10 33 6 17 <5 10
:Current River
DNZM7 13.0 18.0 22.0 7 24 <5 14 <5 9
PWDM7 8.0 25.0 40.0 25 65 <5 10 <5 <5
VNBM7 20.0 23.0 27.0 <5 14 <5 9 <5 7
:Jacks Fork
ALYM7 9.0 12.0 16.0 13 32 5 12 <5 7
EMCM7 12.0 15.0 20.0 <5 17 <5 9 <5 <5
:James River
GLNM7 15.0 25.0 31.0 16 44 <5 19 <5 14
JAMM7 10.0 18.0 24.0 14 66 <5 20 <5 11
:Mississippi River
CPGM7 32.0 37.0 42.0 66 81 38 63 19 40
CRTM7 32.0 41.0 43.0 58 74 8 18 <5 7
HKMK2 34.0 40.0 43.0 70 92 50 67 33 57
NMDM7 34.0 40.0 44.0 50 63 9 26 <5 <5
THBI2 33.0 37.0 42.0 53 75 32 56 17 32
TPTM7 37.0 45.0 47.0 55 63 5 8 <5 <5
:Ohio River
CIRI2 40.0 47.0 53.0 71 88 48 63 17 37
OLMI2 36.0 42.0 47.0 62 84 37 61 15 40
PAHK2 39.0 43.0 52.0 28 64 10 51 <5 7
SMLI2 40.0 48.0 50.0 24 56 6 9 <5 7
:St. Francis River
FSKM7 20.0 22.0 26.0 7 25 7 24 <5 21
PAZM7 16.0 25.0 32.0 16 52 6 19 <5 9
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
VALID PERIOD 03/11/2025 - 06/09/2025
95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
--- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Black River
ANNM7 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 8.1/ 12.3/ 16.0/
PPBM7 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 11.0/ 16.1/ 19.3/
:Current River
DNZM7 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 5.8/ 11.3/ 14.1/
PWDM7 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 8.1/ 15.0/ 19.3/
VNBM7 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 7.8/ 12.5/ 15.0/
:Jacks Fork
ALYM7 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 6.1/ 9.7/ 12.1/
EMCM7 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 5.7/ 9.5/ 11.8/
:James River
GLNM7 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 9.2/ 18.4/ 23.0/
JAMM7 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 5.7/ 11.7/ 14.8/
:Mississippi River
CPGM7 23.7/ 27.4/ 30.2/ 35.2/ 39.1/ 47.0/ 48.3/
CRTM7 23.4/ 24.5/ 27.7/ 34.1/ 36.7/ 39.7/ 42.4/
HKMK2 28.5/ 29.8/ 32.5/ 40.0/ 44.3/ 47.8/ 50.8/
NMDM7 23.1/ 24.3/ 26.8/ 34.1/ 37.7/ 39.8/ 41.9/
THBI2 22.5/ 26.4/ 28.9/ 33.5/ 38.4/ 44.8/ 46.3/
TPTM7 27.6/ 28.9/ 31.4/ 38.5/ 41.7/ 43.4/ 45.2/
:Ohio River
CIRI2 34.8/ 36.1/ 38.9/ 46.6/ 51.0/ 54.8/ 58.2/
OLMI2 27.1/ 28.7/ 32.5/ 39.2/ 44.6/ 48.3/ 53.0/
PAHK2 22.1/ 23.8/ 27.6/ 33.7/ 39.7/ 42.8/ 49.6/
SMLI2 23.6/ 25.1/ 28.0/ 36.3/ 39.9/ 42.2/ 49.5/
:St. Francis River
FSKM7 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 10.2/ 14.6/ 25.2/
PAZM7 6.1/ 6.1/ 6.1/ 6.1/ 12.0/ 18.8/ 26.0/
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
Chance of nonexceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
VALID PERIOD 03/11/2025 - 06/09/2025
95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
--- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Black River
ANNM7 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.2/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/
PPBM7 0.2/ 0.1/ -0.1/ -0.3/ -0.3/ -0.3/ -0.3/
:Current River
DNZM7 0.2/ 0.1/ -0.1/ -0.6/ -0.6/ -0.6/ -0.6/
PWDM7 2.6/ 2.4/ 2.2/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/
VNBM7 2.8/ 2.5/ 2.3/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/
:Jacks Fork
ALYM7 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/
EMCM7 1.7/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/
:James River
GLNM7 3.9/ 3.8/ 3.4/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/
JAMM7 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.1/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/
:Mississippi River
CPGM7 17.4/ 17.4/ 17.3/ 15.6/ 14.5/ 12.3/ 3.8/
CRTM7 16.6/ 15.5/ 14.7/ 12.7/ 10.4/ 8.3/ 7.0/
HKMK2 18.4/ 16.6/ 15.6/ 13.3/ 10.3/ 7.4/ 6.1/
NMDM7 14.7/ 13.0/ 12.0/ 10.0/ 7.1/ 3.9/ 3.6/
THBI2 16.8/ 16.8/ 16.8/ 14.9/ 13.7/ 12.1/ 4.1/
TPTM7 18.2/ 16.4/ 15.4/ 13.5/ 10.5/ 8.7/ 6.5/
:Ohio River
CIRI2 25.0/ 23.4/ 22.5/ 19.8/ 16.3/ 13.2/ 12.2/
OLMI2 21.1/ 21.1/ 21.0/ 21.0/ 20.9/ 20.8/ 19.0/
PAHK2 14.9/ 13.9/ 12.6/ 10.2/ 10.0/ 10.0/ 10.0/
SMLI2 15.5/ 15.2/ 14.4/ 13.5/ 12.1/ 11.4/ 10.9/
:St. Francis River
FSKM7 0.3/ -0.9/ -1.6/ -1.9/ -1.9/ -1.9/ -1.9/
PAZM7 4.9/ 4.8/ 4.7/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/
.END
$$