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Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service
Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center, Slidell LA
1700 PM CST Wednesday February 26 2025

Central Region - Spring Flood Potential Outlook
              National Weather Service
Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center - Slidell, LA
          valid for Thursday February 27 2025


Streamflow data provided by the U.S. Geological Survey and
the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

...For Central Region...WFOS SGF PAH AND LSX ONLY...


...Introduction...


Since the first outlook, we have seen normal to nearly 300% of normal precipitation
in southern Missouri and Illinois as well as western Kentucky. In the upper Mississippi
Valley as well as the Missouri Valley below Gavin`s Point Dam, little to no snowpack
will contribute to below average contributions from the upper Mississippi River and
Missouri River.

Soil moisture conditions across the Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys has remained
stable or slightly improved since the first outlook. Soils in southern Missouri, Illinois
and western Kentucky are significantly moister due to a rainfall event last week. Soils
will still have some ability to absorb spring rainfall, which is the key driver of flooding
in the area of southern Missouri and Illinois, as well as western Kentucky.

...Mississippi River below Chester IL AND Ohio River below
Smithland Dam IL (WFO PAH)...

Regular Precipitation over the past few months has caused the river to recover from low
flow conditions of last fall, a large rain event in the Ohio Valley last week has caused
the lower Ohio River to swell to over 200% its normal flow. That may be exacerbated by
precipitation expected to fall in the next 5 to 7 days.

See the chart below for specific locations showing percent of normal
streamflows:

                                             2/26
Mississippi River              Thebes IL     43%
Ohio River                      Cairo IL     215%

Based on existing soil moisture...streamflow conditions...and extremely low snow pack...
But elevated forecasted precipitation expected over the next 7 days and a wetter than
average outlook for the season in the Ohio and upper Mississippi Valleys...
an AVERAGE to BELOW AVERAGE Flood Potential is expected along the middle Mississippi and
lower Ohio Rivers. Due to the low snow pack the magnitude of future crests will depend
on the frequency...intensity...and extent of spring rains.


...St. Francis Basin of south Missouri (WFO PAH)...

The St. Francis Basin has received near to below normal levels of precipitation this
winter and streamflows are running normal based on current conditions.
Minor rises occurred in January, but remained well below flood levels. Steady
base flow conditions are currently occurring on the upper St. Francis River. Heavy rain
fell in this area in the past week and is forecasted again in the next 7 days.
Observed daily streamflows as a percent of median are given below.

                                            2/26
St. Francis River           Patterson MO    149%

Based on existing soil moisture...streamflows...and normal spring rainfall
patterns...an BELOW AVERAGE Flood Potential is expected over the upper St. Francis
Basin. Percent of available flood control storage for the St. Francis Reservoirs
are given below.

                                              2/26
                      Wappapello Res. MO      97.6%


...Black/White Basins of south Missouri (WFO SGF/LSX/PAH)...

During the winter, minor rises occurred over the upper portions of the Black
River Basin. Precipitation in the past week saw some locations reach flood stage.
Normal to well above normal precipitation has occurred over the basins since the first
outlook. Soil moisture content is above average conditions. Streamflow conditions are
near seasonal levels. No flooding is occurring on the upper Black/White basins and
no flooding is forecast over the next several days. Observed daily streamflow as a
percent of median are given below.


                                             2/26
Black River                 Annapolis MO     112%
Black River              Poplar Bluff MO     101%
James River                    Galena MO     61%

Based on existing soil moisture...streamflows...and normal spring rainfall
patterns...a BELOW AVERAGE Flood Potential is expected over the upper Black and
upper White Basins. Percent of available flood control storage for the
Black/White Reservoirs are given below.

                                             2/26
      Combined Black/White Reservoirs AR     96%

...Extended Temperature and Precipitation Outlook...

The 8-14 Day Outlook issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center indicates normal
to above normal temperatures over the Missouri, Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
The precipitation outlook in the 8-14 days is normal to above over the upstream
areas.

The 30 Day Outlook indicates chances of normal temperatures for most of the Missouri,
upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Chances of above normal precipitation are
indicated across the upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys with normal cahnces in across
the Missouri Valley.

The 90 Day Outlook issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center indicates equal
chances for above or below normal temperatures over the Missouri, upper Mississippi
and lower Ohio Valleys. Above normal temperatures will be seen across the eastern portion
of the Ohio Valley. Chances of above normal precipitation are indicated over the lower
Missouri, most of the Mississippi, and the entire Ohio Valleys.

The next scheduled spring flood outlook will be released on March 13 2025.

.END


$$