119
FXUS61 KOKX 081726
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1226 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure remains stalled up to our north across the Canadian
Maritimes as high pressure builds very slowly out of the west through
Friday. Low pressure passes to the south and east Saturday into
Saturday night. High pressure then builds in for Sunday and
weakens over the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Based on wind gusts 24h ago overachieving (common on a NW flow
here), and continued cyclonic flow and cold advection, raised
gusts to be consistently 30-35 kt (35 to 40 mph) this afternoon
with a few up to 40 kt (46 mph) possible. No wind advisory
planned at this time but close. Temperatures also nudged up a
degree or two in some spots bases on latest obs. However, this
will be offset some by the cold advection.

Reinforcing shots of cP air will continue to rotate through via the
northern branch of the jet stream. The first reinforcing shot of
cold air pivots through today in the wake of a shortwave. A stalled
upper level low remains across the Canadian Maritimes. This has
resulting in a persistent NW flow regime, and this only continues.
The winds at the sfc will be primarily out of the WNW. Expect
another dry, but gusty WNW flow today. With dew point readings
primarily in the single digits it will remain quite dry and
cold. Temperatures will run a good 12 to 15 degrees below normal
with highs only reaching the middle and upper 20s. However,
with the wind it feel 10 to 15 degrees colder with wind chills
primarily in the teens, and close to 10 above across the NW
interior.

For tonight quite cold once again with mainly clear skies to start.
Another cold and blustery night. The winds will subside slightly for
the late evening, but then behind a shortwave the winds will pick up
again after 6z; probably closer to 9 and 10z. Clouds arrive towards
and just after midnight, with skies becoming mostly cloudy late at
night as the trough, weak frontal boundary and accompanying
shortwave pushes through. This will be another reinforcing shot of
cold air behind the trough into Thursday morning. Lows will be
primarily in the teens, with perhaps a few lower 20s in the NYC
metro. However, the wind will make it feel like single digits once
again, with some wind chills approaching zero in the far northern
portions of the area towards daybreak as the winds start to gust
over 35 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
After some morning clouds look for clearing skies into the
afternoon. Another dry, windy, and cold day on tap with temperatures
struggling to reach freezing at the coast, and likely not getting
out of the upper 20s further north and northwest. Wind chills will
run in the teens to around 20. The winds will be the story, as the
some gusts should get close to advisory criteria. An inversion shown
in the forecast soundings make preclude some of the stronger gusts
from getting all the way down. However at the top of the mixed
layer gusts do approach 40 kts. Later shifts will have to
evaluate, but a wind advisory may be needed for the day Thursday
and perhaps into early Thursday evening. Used NBM 90th percentile
wind / wind gusts for the most part as much of the non-raw
guidance appeared to be too light with the winds.

Some subtle height rises are progged ahead of the next feature for
late Thursday night and into Friday. The cP air mass will undergo
some modification, especially into the day Friday. Lows Thursday
night with a gusty NW wind continuing, although the stronger wind
gusts will subside will be in the upper teens to middle 20s, with
the wind making it feel about 10 degrees colder. During the day
Friday look for temperatures to get closer to normal, but likely
ending up a few degrees below as max temps should get into the
middle and upper 30s as all places should get above freezing. The
winds will continue to gradually lighten through the day as the
pressure gradient continues to weaken. After a mostly sunny start,
look for more in the way of high clouds as cirrus streaks in during
the afternoon in advance of a strong confluent trough developing
upstream back to the southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models are in good agreement regarding the upper and surface
features regarding the next storm system. A lack of phasing of
northern and southern stream troughs leads to low pressure emerging
off the Carolina coast late Friday night into Saturday morning, with
the strengthening storm passing well south and east of the 40N/70W
benchmark Saturday afternoon into evening. Enough guidance shows a
complete or near-miss of the precip shield reaching the southern
zones, thus PoPs remain capped at chance late Friday night
through Saturday afternoon. Overall higher chances will be
across the southern zones - closer to the offshore storm. Even
if the northern periphery of its precip shield doesn`t reach us,
can`t completely rule out snow showers for the entire forecast
area in association with the northern stream energy plus upper
divergence with the left front quadrant of a strong jet streak
shifting through. Should any snowfall occur Friday night through
Saturday, there`s increasing confidence that accumulations
would be light.

High pressure builds in behind the system Saturday night through
Sunday, then weakens over the region Monday and Tuesday. Dry through
the period, but given guidance showing cyclonic flow aloft and
potentially a surface trough nearby, maybe some flurries for
Tuesday. Highs generally in the 30s each day in the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The terminals will remain between strong low pressure to the
east and strong high pressure to the west.

VFR.

Strong flow around 310 magnetic through the TAF period. Gusts
up to 40kt through the rest of the day. Gust speeds diminish
tonight, but remain prevailing just below 30 kts. Occasional
gusts over 30kt will be possible all night. Gusts return to
35-40 kt through the day tomorrow.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

 Gusts may vary, at times.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20 kt in the morning.

Saturday: MVFR-IFR possible. Chance of snow. NW gusts 20 kt
possible.

Sunday-Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gale Warnings will be allowed to proceed through the day Thursday as
a strong WNW-NW flow regime will continue to remain in place. At
times the nearshore waters may fall below gale criteria, especially
for this evening. However, the winds will pick up once again later
at night and into Thursday morning. Solid gale conditions take place
across all waters Thursday and into Thursday evening. Later Thursday
night gale conditions will give way to small craft conditions as the
winds gradually come down. Towards Friday look for ocean seas fall
below 5 ft, but small craft gusts may linger into much of the
morning before gusts fall below 25 kt during the afternoon.

Sub-advisory conditions likely continue through Saturday night, then
SCA conditions will be possible Saturday night into Sunday with a
pressure gradient tightening behind a storm strengthening well-
offshore.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic issues anticipated through early next
week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/JE/DW
NEAR TERM...JE/DW
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JC/JE
HYDROLOGY...JC/JE