105
FXUS61 KOKX 300822
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
422 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes to the south as it tracks along a stalled
boundary over the Mid Atlantic through Tuesday. A cold front
then approaches from the west Wednesday, moving through
Wednesday night. High pressure reestablishes itself over the
area for Thursday and Friday. A cold front could potentially
move through sometime Saturday, with high pressure building in
behind it to close out the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A bit of mist and fog across the interior early this morning,
otherwise a dry start to the day. A filling upper low tracks
east into the Mid Atlantic today as an amplified upper ridge
axis remains over the Northeast. Locally, drier air works in
from the north as surface high pressure continues to nose down
into the area. This will allow drier conditions across the
region than over the weekend.

A stationary front that has been draped over the Mid Atlantic will
push further even farther south as the high builds in, allowing
more breaks in the clouds than recent days, but likely still
mostly cloudy much of the time. Temperatures nudge upwards from
recent days, with daytime highs topping out in the low 70s for
most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
October opens on a relatively quiet note, offering seasonal
temperatures and dry conditions. The upper low drifting east
over the Mid Atlantic opens into a trough as it slides east and
offshore. Meanwhile, strong ridging remains over the Northeast,
with the region in between. Surface low pressure develops off
the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic coast late Tuesday into Tuesday
night. Guidance continues to keep the bulk of any associated
precip to the south of the region, but still can`t entirely rule
out a few spotty showers Tuesday evening, especially near the
coast.

Weak high pressure briefly builds in behind the exiting offshore low
Wednesday as a trough digs over the Upper Great Lakes. This will
send a cold front toward the region, passing through by Wednesday
evening. Best forcing appears well to the north, and moisture will
be limited, so not anticipating much in the way of impacts from the
fropa, perhaps a few showers ahead of the boundary Wed evening
across the northern interior. More likely, the front moves through
dry, with clearing skies behind it Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure looks to reestablish itself over the area on Thursday
and Friday after the cold frontal passage late Wednesday. Aloft,
heights rise ahead of an approaching broad upper level trough. With
S/SW flow through the column, we will see a warming trend through
Friday as well as increasing moisture. Highs both days will be in
the mid to upper 70s.

As the aforementioned upper level trough approaches, an associated
surface low likely forms and passes to our north. This would drag a
cold front through the area sometime on Saturday and result in some
showers. There are differences among the guidance with the strength
of the surface low/front, but given where the upper level trough
will likely be, the greatest lift would be to our north and we would
likely only see light showers here.

High pressure builds in behind the cold frontal passage, with a
cooler and drier airmass moving in. Dewpoints drop to the 40s and
high temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will slowly build in from the north as low pressure
passes to our south through the TAF period.

Mainly VFR at all terminals outside of NYC. MVFR for the NYC
terminals, improving to VFR early this morning, with potential to
lower again to MVFR mid-morning for a few hours. Thereafter, VFR is
expected at all terminals through much of tonight. Potential for
MVFR to return late tonight.

A generally E flow will continue through the TAF period. NE this
morning, becoming more E to maybe even SE this afternoon, then back
to NE tonight. Mainly under 10 kts, but could reach 10 kts or a few
kt higher this afternoon.

      NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low confidence in cig forecast this morning. Could fluctuate between
MVFR and VFR. Highest confidence in MVFR is at EWR.

Even with any improvement to VFR early this morning, brief lowering
to MVFR again is possible for a few hours mid-morning. VFR likely
thereafter.

MVFR cigs could return at the very end of the TAF period.


OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tonight: Mainly VFR. Potential for MVFR.

Tuesday: MVFR to VFR.

Tuesday night: MVFR possible in slight chance of showers.

Wednesday through Friday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected across all local waters through
tonight. Passing low pressure to the south will help build seas
above 5 ft on the ocean Tuesday, likely persisting through
Wednesday.

Seas are forecast to lower below 5 ft by Wednesday night, and
sub SCA conditions are then largely expected on all coastal
waters thereafter. However, a gusty northwest flow could follow
a potential cold frontal passage on Saturday and wind gusts
could briefly reach 25 knots.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through this weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR/JT
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...DR/JT
HYDROLOGY...DR/JT