309
FXUS61 KOKX 061330
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
930 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves south of Long Island this morning and then
stalls this afternoon and evening. A wave of low pressure
follows along the stalled boundary tonight into early tomorrow.
Low pressure then moves through southern Ontario bringing a
stronger cold front Monday night. Low pressure then departs
northeast on Tuesday as high pressure builds from the southwest
into Wednesday. High pressure moves offshore Wednesday night. A
slow moving frontal system impacts the region late Thursday into
next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Fine line observed on radar marks the location of the cold
front, which is passing across Long Island. The front will
continue moving south of Long Island and then stall this
afternoon and evening.

Some lingering light rain is possible this morning. Rain chances
decrease this afternoon.  Some patchy fog across eastern Long
Island will improve once the front moves offshore. Not much
clearing is expected into the afternoon with the upper jet to
our north helping to bring a continuation of mid and upper level
clouds.

Lowered high temperatures a few degrees with the abundant cloud
cover for the rest of the day. Highs will be in the lower to
middle 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Periods of rain tonight thru early tomorrow, with snow and
  sleet mixing in in the interior late tonight, early tomorrow.
  Only trace accumulations of wet snow.
* Rain ends Mon aft/eve.
* A strong cold front Monday night brings breezy weather Tuesday
  and cold air with widespread freezes Tuesday night.

A wave of low pressure will follow along and north of the
stalled frontal boundary located to our south tonight. This will
bring another round of showers through the night tonight and
into the morning tomorrow. Rainfall will be aided by our area
being located within the right entrance region of a jet streak
to our north. Given the colder air filtering in as 500mb heights
aloft begin to drop under northerly flow and cold air advection
at 850mb, we could see some sleet and snow mixing in in the
interior late tonight into early Monday morning. Snow ratios
will be low and any snow accumulations manly limited to a
trace.

The wave of low pressure that passes tonight will exit east through
the day on Monday, leading to the rain gradually ending NW to SE
late Monday morning into Monday evening.

Lows Sunday night will be in the upper to mid 30s. Highs on Monday
will be noticeably cooler than Sunday in the mid 40s.

A stronger cold front will be sent in by passing low pressure to our
north Monday night. We`ll lack moisture, so only slight chances for
light precip is expected Monday night. Snow may be mixed in with any
precip in the interior, but likely staying liquid at the coast,
unless briefly mixed in as it ends. Lows Monday night will be in the
mid-30s at the coast and NYC to the mid/upper-20s in Orange county,
given the earlier passage of the cold front there.

The Tuesday into Tuesday night timeframe we`ll see much colder
temperatures, drier weather, breezy conditions and mainly clear
skies.

Low pressure exits northeast Tuesday as high pressure builds in from
the southwest through Tuesday night. The departing low will leave us
in a stronger pressure gradient resulting in a WNW wind of 15-20 mph
on Tuesday with peak gusts in the afternoon 30-35 mph. Winds will
gradually weaken Tuesday night as the pressure gradient weakens and
high pressure takes more control.

A deep longwave trough will center itself over the area with much
colder 850 mb temps. With strong cold air advection in place,
expecting highs of mid-40s to upper-30s Tuesday to drop down to the
low-30s the low-20s Tuesday night. Most of the area should drop
below freezing Tuesday night. The only areas that have started
growing season by Tuesday night are NYC, Nassau, Hudson, and Essex
counties. Temperatures here are expected to be very close to
freezing, so its possible we could reach Freeze Warning criteria in
these areas if temperatures remain as forecasted. Frost, however,
looks less likely given weakening winds may still be strong enough
to inhibit frost development.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An upper longwave trough remains over the eastern United States
Wednesday through Saturday as a shortwave rotates through the
trough Thursday into Saturday, deepening the upper trough as the
pattern becomes nearly blocked. This results is a slow moving
frontal system developing over the central plains Wednesday and
tracking into the region by Thursday night, and moving slowly
through into the upcoming weekend. With the slow moving system,
and increasing instability and precipitable water values around
1 inch, scattered thunderstorms are possible along with periods
of moderate to heavy rainfall. However, there is too much
uncertainty with the timing and have not yet included in the
forecast. Used the deterministic NBM parameters for the extended
period.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front moves south of the terminals early this morning,
then becomes nearly stationary. A wave of low pressure then
tracks along the nearly stationary front tonight.

IFR ceilings early this morning will be improving to MVFR,
then to VFR by afternoon. Light rain develops this evening, with
conditions lowering to MVFR late tonight. Low confidence on the
timing of improving conditions this morning, and with the
lowering conditions tonight.

A light N to NE flow has developed and the flow will become NW/N
and increase this morning. Gusts 15-18 kt are possible around
midday into early afternoon, however, the gusts may be more
occasional. The flow lightens a little this evening and tonight,
becoming N/NE.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for changing flight categories through this
morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: MVFR-IFR with showers into the afternoon. Wet snow or
sleet could mix in at KSWF early in the morning. Improvement to
VFR late Monday afternoon. A slight chance of rain showers
Monday night with MVFR, snow may mix in at KSWF.

Tuesday: VFR. A slight chance of rain showers in the AM east of NYC
metro terminals. W-NW wind gusts 20-30 kt, diminishing at night.

Wednesday-Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Lingering fog on eastern Ocean waters and eastern LI Bays will
improve through 11 am as a cold front shifts to the south.

SCA criteria will be met today into tonight on ocean waters for
seas 5-6 ft, with SCAs in effect. Non-ocean waters will not
meet SCA criteria through tonight.

Waves will be below 5 ft on Monday through most of Monday night.

Early Tuesday through Tuesday night, waves will be between 5-8
ft on ocean waters, but stay below 5 ft on all other waters.
WNW winds will also gust up to 30 kt on Tuesday on all waters.

Small craft seas and gusts are possible on the ocean waters early
Wednesday morning with gusty northwest winds behind a cold frontal
passage, with winds and seas subsiding as high pressure builds over
the waters during Wednesday. Winds and seas on the ocean waters will
then remain below advisory levels through Friday. The non ocean
waters will be below advisory levels Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Monday for ANZ353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR/MET
NEAR TERM...BR/DS
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BR/MET
HYDROLOGY...BR/MET