596
FXUS61 KOKX 060014
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
814 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through the weekend, then
slowly weaken on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
High pressure over Quebec will keep the area dry. Haze due to
wildfire smoke will linger. Mid/high clouds should hamper
radiational cooling, with low temps near 70 in/just outside NYC
and in the 60s elsewhere.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains anchored over Quebec with a continuation of an
easterly flow. Models still agree on broken to overcast mid to high
clouds, so anticipating a mostly cloudy day. Regarding smoke and
haze, models suggest that the surface visibility could be reduced to
perhaps 5-6 statute miles just about everywhere except eastern LI
and SE CT, but with improvement working westward during the day, so
mentioned haze in the forecast accordingly. NBM was used for high
temperatures - ranging mostly 80-85. Mostly cloudy conditions
continue Wednesday night, limiting radiational cooling. Low
temperatures mostly in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will dominate through the period, with temps near to
slightly below normal Thu and Fri. A gradual warming trend will
commence thereafter, with slightly above normal temps inland on Sat
and then temps well above normal early next week, along with rising
dewpoints. Heat index values could exceed 95 mainly inland both
Mon/Tue. A late day tstm may be possible mainly NW of NYC on Tue
afternoon with the approach of a weak disturbance from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure remains north and east of the terminals through
the TAF period.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. There
is a chance for a brief time window of MVFR stratus towards
early Wednesday morning.

Winds will be SE to E near 5 kt tonight. Winds will become
variable direction for some terminals. Winds become more SE and
increase to near 10 kt Wednesday.

  NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Uncertain about MVFR timing. Start and end time could vary by
1-2 hours.

Chance VFR could very well prevail late tonight into Wednesday
morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday afternoon - Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Wednesday night with
sustained easterly winds increasing during the day Wednesday,
but remaining at 15 kt or less. This, along with an E to ESE
swell could generate ocean waves approaching 5 ft during the
afternoon and evening, but prevailing seas should be closer to 4
ft.

Sub SCA conditions expected from Thu through Sunday. E swell up to 4
ft on Thu and possibly into Fri could cause rough conditions at the
ocean inlets.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip risk thru the middle of the week with
building swell and an east wind around 10kt at times.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>007-
     009>011.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067>075-
     176-178.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC/BG
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG