293
FXUS61 KOKX 040050
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
850 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front passes through the area this evening. High pressure
builds in behind the front tonight through Friday night. High
pressure remains in control through Sunday. A cold front
approaches from the Great Lakes on Monday, passing slowly across
the area Tuesday or even stalling in close proximity into
midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled.

Strong to severe thunderstorms have pushed south and east of the
area. However, some lingering showers are possible the next couple
of hours across coastal locations.

Skies will become generally clear with NW flow brining in drier
air. Lows tonight will be in the 60s for much of the area with
some spots in the Lower Hudson Valley may drop into the upper
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
*Ideal conditions are expected for Independence Day
 celebrations.

The upper-level trough axis shifts east on Friday and completely
exits east by Friday night. At the same time, an upper-level
ridge builds in from the west. At the surface, high pressure
builds in from the west Friday into Friday night, passing east
offshore.

As high pressure builds in, skies should remain mostly clear
with ample surface heating. The upper level trough still
generally over the area will limit the rising of surface
temperatures, though highs will still be seasonable, generally
in the low to middle 80s. Long Island and the NYC Metro may
actually rise into the upper 80s under a light NW flow. Lows
Friday night will be in the 60s, with interior areas possibly
dropping into the upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points:

* A predominately dry weekend with increasing warmth and humidity
  through Monday.

* Unsettled conditions return Monday through Wednesday, with
 shower/thunderstorm chances each day.

The NBM was largely followed with this update with no major changes.

Good model agreement on the synoptic pattern to start the period,
with upper ridging/rising heights Saturday and Sunday. Attendant
southerly flow with sfc high pressure to the southwest will continue
to advect a more warm and humid airmass into the region, peaking on
Monday (h85 temperatures 16-18C), which would yield sfc temperatures
in the low 90s, especially away from coastal areas. There is some
question as to the amount of cloud cover that will be present, which
may inhibit heating a bit and thus the high temperatures.

Those clouds appear to be in association with a stream of moisture
advecting north into the area from an upper low off the mid-atlantic
coast. Guidance is more varied on the evolution of this system, and
its possible interaction with an upper shortwave and cold front
moving in from the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. A period of
showers and thunderstorms is thus likely Tuesday afternoon, with the
frontal boundary stalling south of the area into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front moves across the area this evening, with high
pressure building in behind it on Independence Day.

Mainly VFR. Lingering SHRA or TSRA quickly comes to an end at
all terminals by 2Z with a return to VFR. Winds shift NW or
NNW into early evening and flow becomes light and variable at
most sites overnight. NW winds increase Friday morning,
becoming around 10 kt in the afternoon, with gusts toward 20 kt
possible.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Wind direction may hang near 310 mag at NYC terminals early this
evening.

Gusts toward 20 kt possible Fri afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night through Saturday night: VFR.

Sunday: VFR. SSW gusts up to 20 kt possible Sunday afternoon.

Monday-Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters under a weak pressure
gradient through Friday night. Tstms may pose a hazard of strong
winds, lightning, heavy rain, and locally rough seas this
afternoon and this evening.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected this weekend into early next week.
Southerly flow on the ocean waters Sunday into Monday will feature
G15-20kt with seas generally around 3 ft, possibly as 4 ft late
Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic impacts anticipated through the middle
of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A lingering southerly swell of 2-3 ft 6-7s will produce mainly a
low rip current risk on Friday, except for a moderate risk for
the beaches from Smith Point to Montauk Point. A low rip current
risk is expected for all beaches on Saturday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DBR/DW/MW
NEAR TERM...DW/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DBR/MW
HYDROLOGY...DBR/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...