155
FXUS61 KOKX 121459
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1059 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be main feature through Friday with a weak wave
of low pressure slowly passing nearby to our south tonight into
Thursday night. A warm front lifts through Saturday, before a strong
cold front moves through the region into Sunday night. Behind
it, high pressure returns early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast on track this morning, with just a few minor
adjustments to reflect current observations. Otherwise, high
pressure briefly builds in from the north today. It will be
cooler than it has been for the past couple of days with a
northerly flow turning east by late in the day. This along with
subsidence will limit the mixing depth. High temperatures for
the day might have already occurred in the city and adjacent
areas shortly after midnight. Temperatures otherwise eventually
rebound to 50-55 across the region.

Shortwave with some moisture may combine for some light showers for
the southern half of the area and mixed rain and snow showers for
the northern half tonight. Precip chances are low however, capped at
30 percent with the higher probabilities across the north where
there will be a better combination of moisture and lift.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The shortwave exits east early Thursday morning with another, but
weaker, shortwave passing to our south off the Mid-Atlantic Coast.
An associated weak wave of low pressure along a stationary front to
our south slowly shifts eastward. Models have trended a little drier
in the low levels along with isentropic lift trending farther east.
Will therefore leave out the mention of drizzle for both Thursday
and Thursday night. Models do however differ regarding the depth of
moisture around 850mb down to the surface. Looks like it could be
shallow enough for partial sunshine. High temperatures for Thursday
in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Slight ridging at the surface and aloft for Friday. More in the way
of sunshine after a mostly cloudy start. A little warmer too, with
highs in the lower 50s for coastal areas and mid 50s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A more unsettled pattern sets up as deepening low pressure cuts
through the central US and into the Upper Great Lakes this weekend
with a mid level trough amplifying as it shifts east. This will send
an associated warm front through the forecast area Saturday, and
strengthening southerly flow helps stream in moisture from the Gulf
into Sunday. Potential for a period of moderate to heavy rain ahead
of the attendant cold frontal passage, though still differences in
global guidance timing and placement that will need to be resolved
before getting too specific. Lingering showers for Monday with the
system exiting late Monday afternoon into Monday evening as high
pressure builds in from the south Monday night into Tuesday.

Warm overnight lows for Saturday night into Sunday, especially away
from the coast, as the area will be warm sectored. Low temperatures
will only drop into the 50s for these locations, and upper 40s near
the coast thanks to the relatively cooler waters. Temperatures
remain above average for the rest of the long term with highs in the
50s and 60s. Cooler conditions are expected along the coast once
again.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure builds across New England into this afternoon. A weak
wave of low pressure approaches from the west this evening.

VFR through the period.

Winds shift to the NE over the next few hours, then shift to the
E/SE this afternoon. Wind speeds will be at or just above 10 kt.
Any gusts that persisted end shortly.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: Mainly VFR. Low chance or brief MVFR possible late in the
morning into the afternoon.

Friday: Chance of sub VFR early, otherwise VFR.

Saturday: MVFR possible. Slight chance of rain showers. S gusts 20-
30 kt Saturday night.

Sunday: IFR or lower possible with showers, especially in the
afternoon and at night. S wind gusts 25-35 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Swell on the ocean has increased noticeably over the past couple of
hours, giving confidence to issue a small craft advisory. Guidance
suggests that the swell doesn`t increase too much over the next few
hours, but seas should eventually average over 5 ft across each of
the 3 ocean zones today. An onshore flow and swell is expected to
keep ocean seas to advisory levels through at least Thursday night,
so the SCA ends at this time for now. SCA could need to be stretched
into Friday, but probably not through Friday night. Sub-advisory
conditions on the non-ocean waters today through Friday night.

Ocean seas build late Saturday with strengthening southerly flow. 5
ft seas are possible late Saturday, but more so Saturday night, then
continue to build and peak Sunday night to 6 to 13 ft. Seas start to
diminish late Sunday night, but remain above SCA conditions through
Monday.

Winds across all waters expected to be above 25 kt by late Saturday
night into Sunday. Gales are possible on the ocean waters on Sunday
into Sunday night. Winds begin to diminish late Sunday night,
falling below 25 kt for most areas by daybreak Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected into the beginning of this weekend.
There is potential for heavy downpours ahead of a frontal passage
Sunday and Sunday night. There remains uncertainty into the duration
and placement, but the possibility of nuisance flooding cannot be
ruled out.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...BC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP