319
FXUS61 KOKX 272331
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
731 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure passes through tonight, followed by a cold
front that stalls nearby during Friday before moving back north as a
warm front Friday night into Saturday. The frontal boundary drifts
back south of the region Saturday night, before lifting north once
again Sunday night as low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes.
The associated cold front approaches Monday, moving through Monday
night into Tuesday. High pressure then builds in from the northwest
Tuesday, before another frontal system potentially impacts the region
mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Clear skies to start the evening before cloud cover gradually
builds after midnight with a passing trough to the north. Forecast
remains on track and previous discussion follows.

A weak warm front or surface trough passes trough the area tonight.
Not much moisture with it, and with dry low levels, anything that
falls might be just a sprinkle. Thermal profiles look too warm with
freezing level heights too high to support flurries. Low
temperatures ranging from the lower 40s in the city to the mid 30s
across the northern zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
For Friday, a cold front dropping down from the north stalls
somewhere across the forecast area, but possibly just north of us.
The front then nudges northward starting late in the day or during
Friday night as a warm front. Meanwhile, moisture streams eastward
in the vicinity and north of this boundary. Some of this may result
in some showers late in the day for parts of the forecast area, but
a better overall chance happens during Friday night for the entire
area. Temperatures will run above normal with highs in the mid 50s
to low 60s and lows around 50 in the city with 40s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Unsettled to start the period as a complex frontal system lingers
nearby through early next week.

Warm front remains north of the region on Saturday, with increasing
SW flow quickly advecting in an anomalously mild air mass and
setting up the warmest day of the year so far. Temperatures rise
well into the 70s generally from NYC north and west, with perhaps
even a few lower 80s in urban NE NJ. Marine influence should limit
max temps to the lower 70s moving east into Long Island and much of
southern CT, and the 60s along south facing shorelines out east. The
warmth is short-lived as NW flow aloft and mid level confluence over
eastern Canada bring high pressure SE into northern New England and
helps force the front back south Saturday night.

As that high passes well east, the front drifts back north as low
pressure cuts tracks thru the Lower Great Lakes, and lifts north by
Monday AM. Attendant cold front then approaches Monday, moving
across the area Monday night. A mostly cloudy day should limit highs
to the upper 50s and lower 60s to the east and mid 60s to lower 70s
to the west. Expect numerous showers along and ahead of the fropa,
and at least the chance for some embedded thunderstorms, especially
west of the Hudson. Thereafter, cooling back down into the 40s and
50s for daytime highs Tue and Wed with cold NW flow. Another frontal
system could bring another round of rain mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure, south of the area, along the mid Atlantic and
southeast coast remains tonight as a weak cold front moves
through the area. The front then stalls in the vicinity during
Friday and moves back north as a warm front Friday night into
Saturday.

VFR. W wind shifts more SW this evening, and then becomes more
westerly and increases late tonight into Friday morning as the
cold front passes through the region. SW winds remain into
Friday afternoon with the winds becoming southerly late in the
day.

Isolated light rain showers are possible tonight. Low
confidence in coverage and occurrence so have left out of the
TAF. Conditions are expected to remain VFR regardless.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments through Friday afternoon.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night: MVFR with a chance of rain showers.

Saturday: VFR through the morning, MVFR possible starting in the
evening with rain showers. SW winds G25-30kt.

Sunday: VFR, with a slight chance of rain showers during the day.
MVFR with a chance of rain showers at night. E-SE wind G15-20kt.

Monday: MVFR or lower with showers, slight chance of thunder in the
afternoon. S-SW winds G25-30kt, becoming NW at night.

Tuesday: VFR. N/NW wind G25kt during the day.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds diminish this evening before increasing overnight as the
pressure gradient tightens in response to a trough shifting
through the region. Not enough confidence to drop the SCA for
the non-ocean waters for the overnight/Friday morning period,
but there may be only low coverage where criteria is met. On the
ocean, 5ft seas would appear to be limited east of Fire Island
Inlet, but marginal SCA gusts anticipated west of here overnight
into Friday morning, so no changes to the advisories on the
ocean. Sub-advisory conditions then follow for Friday afternoon
and night.

Strengthening SW flow may bring Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
conditions to at least the ocean waters, if not all waters, Saturday
with winds gusting toward 25 kt. Ocean seas build above 5 ft
Saturday and Saturday night as well, and could linger thru
Sunday AM, especially east of Moriches Inlet. Winds lower
Saturday night, and after a lull daytime Sunday, SCA conditions
return Sunday night or Monday as a frontal boundary lifts north,
with gusts 25 to 30 kt possible on all waters. Gales possible
Monday on the ocean. Winds and seas should then begin to lower
below SCA criteria Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Minimum RH values on Friday are expected to be lowest across
the CT zones at 30-35%. Winds will however be on the lighter
side by the time the RH drops this low in the afternoon, with
maybe a gust or two up to 20 mph. Minimum RH values for the rest
of the forecast area will range mostly 35-45% with gusts below
20 mph. No statements anticipated across the entire forecast
area at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the middle of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ331-
     332-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DR
NEAR TERM...JC/DR
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DR
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/DR