758
FXUS61 KOKX 241051
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
651 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly approaches from the west today and moves
into the region late tonight, then passes east by late Monday.
High pressure then gradually builds in for the middle of the
week, and dominates into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A closed longwave upper low and trough extending from central
and eastern Canada into the central and eastern United States will
be slow moving as a Rex blocking pattern remains today and into
Monday. This will keep a cold front extending from the surface
low centered north of the Great Lakes tracking slowly eastward.
The trend continues for a slower movement, and with little frontal
lift have also trended down with the probabilities of
precipitation. Only a portion of the northwestern areas may see
any rain showers through today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The upper longwave trough and closed low continue to move
slowly east through Monday as a cold front also tracks slowly
east. Once again have trended lower with the probabilities of
precipitation through Monday with little frontal forcing. Mainly
showers are expected with little CAPE or instability, which is
best across the interior. Precipitable water values remain
around 1.5 inches and any showers or thunderstorms that develop
will be capable of producing briefly heavy rainfall as storms
also track slowly eastward. The surface front moves east of the
area by early Monday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points:

* Dry conditions expected through the long term.

* Temperatures through the long term will be near or slightly below
  normal.

Forecast models in good agreement through the long term with a cold
front pushing east of the forecast area Monday night, followed by a
larger area of high pressure building over the area from the Central
Plains through the middle and end of the week, and into the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front slowly approaches through this evening.

VFR expected throughout most of the TAF period, although there will
be a few pockets of brief marginal MVFR ceilings for NW terminals
early this morning, otherwise VFR prevails. Best chances of MVFR are
at KSWF and KHPN. More widespread MVFR ceilings become likely
towards late tonight with showers possible late tonight into Monday
AM for the more western terminals, especially KSWF.

A general S flow through the TAF period. NYC terminals remain around
8-12 kt for most terminals, with gusts up to 20 kt developing by mid
afternoon. The winds then decrease for the evening. The winds will
become primarily SW and W Monday morning at 5 to 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

MVFR conditions could occur earlier than indicated in TAFs for
tonight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: Scattered PM showers, isolated tstm possible in the aft/eve,
MVFR or lower possible.

Tuesday - Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Updated, and issued a SCA until 1100 AM EDT for the ocean
waters as long period east to southeast swell around 4 feet
continue, with seas around 5 feet. Swell and seas subside late
this morning. Otherwise, winds and waves will be below advisory
levels today into Monday morning across the forecast waters.
However, ocean seas may builds to 5 feet by late Monday and
continue into Monday night as a southeasterly swell increases.
Then Tuesday through the end of the week conditions will once
again be below advisory levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of the week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The high risk for rip currents continues through this evening
for the Atlantic Ocean beaches as residual long period 3 to 4
ft easterly swell @ 10-11 seconds slowly subsides.

Monday there is a moderate risk for rip currents at the Atlantic
Ocean beaches as a 3 to 4 ft swell continues. The risk may
increase to high for the Southeastern Suffolk beaches late
Monday as swell builds to 5 ft.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...