922
FXUS61 KOKX 101125
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
625 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the west will gradually build across today. An
upper level disturbance pivots through Saturday while low pressure
down to the south pushes well offshore. High pressure settles south
of the region later in the weekend and then weakens as it moves
east on Monday. A cold front moves across early Tuesday followed
by high pressure gradually building in from the west Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Clear skies to begin the day. Some subtle height rises build
across and this leads to the cP air mass in place undergoing
some further modification. Look for temperatures to get closer
to normal this afternoon, but likely ending up a couple of
degrees below normal as max temps should get into the middle and
upper 30s as all locations except in far western Orange county
get above freezing. The winds will continue to gradually lighten
through the day as the pressure gradient continues to weaken,
although the winds will still gust at times through the morning.
It will be sunny for much of the day. More in the way of high
clouds start to work in for the late afternoon as cirrus streaks
across in advance of a strong confluent trough developing
upstream back to the southwest.

For tonight clouds increase from west to east. Have introduced
slight chance PoPs across western areas towards 06z, with most of
the region getting into chance PoPs after 09z. Positive vorticity
advection begins to increase during this time frame, however the
lower levels will remain moisture starved. The main driver of any
synoptic lift will be PVA as any thermal advection will get shunted
well south of the area into Saturday morning as a coastal low will
not make the northerly turn up the coast to begin the weekend. Lows
tonight will be primarily in the 20s. Another night where
radiational cooling is not expected, but not due to wind as the
winds will be light, but more due to extensive cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There remains excellent agreement among NWP with a storm system
moving across the south and it`s upper level energy getting sheared.
The storm system thus gets shunted to the ENE and well offshore
later on Saturday. The expectation is that NW interior locations may
have a light coating of snow by Saturday morning from the northern
stream upper level low as anything that falls will be cold enough
throughout the column to be in the form of snow.

The trough axis approaches Saturday morning with much of the higher
res guidance showing snow showers moving from W to E across the
region. Most places are expecting to see around a dusting, to
perhaps a half inch in the higher elevations to the NW. The HRRR has
hinted at some minor interaction with the coastal low, but based on
the mid level mass fields cannot see that taking place. Look for
partial sunshine to develop into the afternoon as the trough axis
pivots through with the winds switching to the NW for the afternoon
with gusts potentially returning later in the afternoon.
Temperatures will be in the 30s region wide.

Brisk and seasonably cold Saturday night as the pressure gradient
tightens some, but not expecting the very windy conditions that we
have experienced behind previous past disturbances. Clear and brisk
with lows mainly in the 20s, with wind chills primarily in the teens.

High pressure attempts to build in some from the SW on Sunday. It
may be the first day in quite some time that most coastal sections
get to 40 degrees, thus seasonable temperatures and remaining dry
with sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No significant changes to the forecast thinking Sunday night through
next Thursday.

Key Points:

*Dry conditions will prevail through next Thursday.

*Temperatures will be seasonably cool temperatures starting the
 period Sunday night, but begin to weaken and slide offshore on
 Monday.

*Another shot of colder air appears likely Tuesday through Thursday
 as below average temperatures and blustery conditions return.

Model guidance continues to be in good agreement with the large
scale pattern evolution. Ridging both aloft and the surface will be
in place Sunday night before weakening as it moves offshore Monday.
An upper low will then swing across the Great Lakes Monday night and
then settle over the northeast on Tuesday. In response, a dry cold
front will move across the area early Tuesday. Broad low pressure
should then organize off the New England coast and near the Maritimes
Tuesday night into Wednesday with the upper low also moving
offshore.

The Tri-State region will once again be sandwiched between building
high pressure to the west and low pressure to the east for the late
Tuesday through Thursday period. Temperatures start to fall Tuesday
with highs in the lower to middle 30s. Highs for Wednesday and
Thursday then look to only reach the upper 20s and lower 30s.
Nighttime temperatures Tuesday night and Wednesday night look to
fall into the teens for most and low 20s in the NYC metro.

Blustery NW winds are likely to occur behind the front later Tuesday
and especially Wednesday and Thursday. The current model consensus
does not indicate winds as strong as the recent stretch of weather.
However, have noted a slight uptick in wind gusts in the 75th and
90th percentile of the NBM, generally 25 to 35 mph. NBM
deterministic winds which have been running low in recent NW flow
and cold advection regimes, so sided closer to the NBM 75th and 90th
percentiles with this update. The strongest winds look to peak on
Wednesday. It would also not be surprising to see winds and gusts
trend upward in the coming days given the surface pattern and winds
overperforming in NW flow and cold advection regimes this
winter.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds into the region through this evening. Low
pressure will then pass south of the area late tonight into
Saturday.

VFR through late tonight. Light snow is possible late tonight
into Saturday morning, which may bring categories down to MVFR.
Accumulation is expected to limited to a coating.

Gusty NW flow continues this morning, 20-25 kt. Gusts may begin
becoming occasional late this morning before ending early this
afternoon. Some slight backing of the winds is possible this
evening as speeds fall below 10 kt. Winds then become light and
variable late tonight into early Saturday.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may become occasional after 15z and could end +/- 1-2
hours from forecast.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: Chance of light snow and MVFR in the morning, then
VFR. NW gusts 20 kt possible in the afternoon into the night.

Sunday-Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-30 kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft conditions linger through the morning. This
afternoon any small crafts for the eastern waters will end, with
sub advisory conditions prevailing into tonight as weak high
pressure settles over the waters. Light winds are expected early
Saturday, before a NW flow returns as a coastal low off to the
south pushes well offshore and a disturbance works through from
the west. In its wake NW winds increase late in the day Saturday
and into Saturday evening yielding marginal small craft
conditions across most of the waters.

Conditions return below SCA levels Sunday through Monday night.
Marginal SCA conditions are possible on the ocean Tuesday and
Tuesday night as NW flow increases behind a cold front passage.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are anticipated through much of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ331-
     335-338-345-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ332-
     340-350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/DS
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JE/DS
HYDROLOGY...JE/DS