372
FXUS61 KOKX 040230
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1030 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will result in another cool night with light
winds and mostly clear skies (minus haze/smoke aloft from
western Canadian fires). Lows will generally be 3 to 5 degrees
below normal, but even cooler across locations that radiate
well, in particular the Pine Barrens region of Long Island.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The upper trough will gradually lift out of eastern Canada this
period, while heights/ridging build northward along the eastern
seaboard. This will allow for warmer conditions and a bit of a
bump in humidity. In addition, smoke from Canadian wildfires,
most pronounced across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada will
settle south tonight and into the area Monday (per the 12Z
HRRR). Both vertically integrated smoke and near surface smoke
concentrations will increase late tonight into Monday afternoon.
Model visibilities are not showing much in the way of visibility
restrictions. For the time, will mention haze across the area
Monday. This will be closely monitored and would not be surprised
if state DECs issues an air quality alerts for Monday. Beyond
Monday, the smoke may lift back to the north due to the
aforementioned height rises along the east coast.

As for temperatures, highs both Monday and Tuesday will be in
the 80s, a few degrees above normal. There may even be a spotty
90 across metro NJ. Lows will be in 60s to around 70, highest
across the NYC metro. An anticipated increase in cloud cover
Tuesday night into Wednesday and an easterly flow (due to
strengthening high pressure to the north), will keep highs a
few degrees cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***Key Points***

The NBM was largely followed with this update with no major changes.

Key Points:

* Dry conditions are expected through next weekend with high
  pressure in control

* Seasonable temperatures through the period with highs in the 80s.
  Humidity levels will creep up a bit, but are not expected to be
  excessive during this time frame.

A decent stretch of sensible weather is in store for the extended as
global models and their respective ensembles advertise a building
upper ridge and high pressure at the surface much of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region through Monday night.

VFR. There is an increased potential for MVFR vsbys in smoke
during the day Monday, and possibly into the early evening
especially across the inland areas. With increased confidence
have now included MVFR vsbys in smoke at all the terminals with
the 18Z HRRR indicating a higher concentration of smoke moving
into the area. If smoke does occur, terminals that get a
seabreeze would likely improve back to VFR during Monday
afternoon.

Light and variable to calm winds continue through the overnight
and into early Monday morning across the region. Winds become
light northerly in the morning with sea breezes developing
midday into the afternoon.


    NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Wind shift/sea breeze timing may be off by an hour or so Monday.

Uncertainty with how smoke will affect vsbys on Monday, with
the potential for MVFR, but likely not below that.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: Generally VFR. There may be MVFR vsby
restrictions in smoke early in the evening, especially at KSWF.

Tuesday-Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are on tap through Wednesday. An easterly
swell will gradually build through the period with seas
building to around 4 ft on Wednesday and 5 ft Wednesday night.
Seas are forecast to remain around 5 ft through Friday, but this
will depend on the magnitude and location of low pressure well
off the Mid Atlantic coast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The pressure gradient remains weak for Monday. However, the
pressure gradient does steepen a bit for Tuesday with low
pressure well out in the Atlantic and a strengthening high
pressure area moving across the Canadian Maritimes.

For Monday, light and variable winds become more southerly along the
coast in the afternoon. For Tuesday, more consistent slowly
increasing east to southeast winds are forecast. The onshore
fetch increases Tuesday.

Lower waves, near 1 to 2 ft, and light winds keep a low rip current
risk for the ocean beaches through Monday. The easterly winds
Tuesday could very well reach up to around 10 kt in the
afternoon and with the developing fetch and slightly building
waves, to near 3 ft, the rip current risk is moderate for the
ocean beaches Tuesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Monday night for
     NYZ067>075-176-178.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...