143
FXUS61 KOKX 091952
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
352 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds south of the region through Monday. Local
region in between lows southeast and north of the region for
Tuesday. A cold front approaches late Tuesday and moves across
late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. High pressure briefly
builds Wednesday into Wednesday night before moving towards the
Canadian Maritimes. Weak low pressure approaches Thursday into
early Friday. Region will then be in between high pressure in
the Western Atlantic and approaching developing low pressure to
the west heading into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Upr wave exiting the region this aftn will leave windy cond in place
into the eve. As the bl cools, winds will diminish this eve. Another
jet max however passes thru overnight and the associated subsidence
looks to kick winds back up slightly overnight. Main impact with
this is to make the temp fcst challenging. Went close to the NBM
given the mixing winds expected. If things remain decoupled,
particularly across the interior, lows will end up several degrees
colder.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Weak low pres tracking ewd across the Gulf of ME, along with NW
flow aloft, will be conducive to wly llvl flow thru most of the
day on Mon. This is a warm signal. As the flow aloft weakens
17-20Z, the sea breeze should begin to overspread the coasts.
This should still allow most areas to warm significantly thru
the late mrng into the early aftn. Mixed down temps from h85
then blended in the NBM to produce the high temp grid. Went a
good deal abv the NBM for LI and parts of CT, bringing almost
the entire cwa aoa 60 degrees. If the flow ends up a bit S of W,
or the sea breeze develops too quickly, these numbers will be
too warm.

A dry airmass and broad subsidence should produce no pcpn and few
clouds. There should be some cu invof the sea breeze.

Light sly flow Mon ngt with mainly skc. There could be enough return
flow llvl moisture to allow for some shallow fog to develop. The
prob is too low however attm to include in the fcst. Went with the
NBM for temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly dry through much of the long term. Possibilities for rain
showers Thursday through Thursday night and a higher possibility for
next weekend, especially for next Sunday. Temperatures overall are
forecast to be above normal on average.

More amplified pattern develops for next weekend. Stronger low
approaches with a strengthening cold front for next Sunday.
Potential for heavy rain and gusty winds with strong meridional flow
ahead of it.

Upper and mid level flow quasi-zonal much of the long term, with
strengthening SW flow for next weekend. Region mainly in between
northern and southern branches of the upper jet. Upper jet southern
branch starts to move into the region for the latter half of next
weekend.

At the surface, weak pressure gradient Tuesday in place across the
area with the area in between systems. Low in Southeast Canada
brings a cold front to the region late Tuesday into early Wednesday.
Cold front expected to move across dry with a lack of available
moisture.

High pressure from Great Lakes and Southeast Canada then briefly
builds into the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure
moves into the Canadian Maritimes Thursday. Weak low pressure
associated with an inverted trough sets up Thursday across the
region. The region will have more easterly flow. Possible rain
showers in the forecast but just slight chance.

Warming trend for Friday into the weekend. Friday and Friday night
forecast is dry but chances for rain showers increase for next
weekend. Saturday appears to be mainly dry but likelihood increases
substantially next Sunday for rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A surface trough passes through this afternoon with another
Monday morning, followed by weak high pressure.

VFR. Strengthening W/SW winds this afternoon will gusts
25-30kt, but then quickly diminish this evening. Winds will
back to the SW at 5-10kt tonight, then veer to the W/NW Monday
morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shifts may vary by 1-2 hours. Gusts may be a bit
lower than currently forecast this afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday Afternoon: VFR. Chance of an afternoon seabreeze.

Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible with E flow. Slight chance of
showers.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds decrease early this eve, so the sca is set to expire most of
the waters at 00Z. Residual 5 ft seas however on the ocean,
especially the ern portion, so the sca was extended there thru Mon.
Winds and seas blw sca lvls Mon ngt.

Sub-SCA conditions forecast for all waters Tuesday through Tuesday
night. Non-ocean waters forecast to stay below SCA. Probable SCA
conditions for the ocean Wednesday through Friday. All waters
forecast to return to below SCA conditions Friday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An SPS remains in effect for nern NJ til 00Z. Gusty winds will
diminish this eve, and RH will recover as well. Min RH in the
20s to around 30 on Mon, along with W winds 10-20 mph. A sea
breeze will develop after noon at the coasts resulting in a wind
shift.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns expected this week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/JM
FIRE WEATHER...JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM