355
FXUS61 KOKX 191943
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
343 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure remains east of the Long Island through through Friday
night. On Saturday, the low lingers offshore as high pressure noses
in from the northeast. High pressure continues to build in on Sunday
and remains in control through Tuesday. A frontal system approaches
from the west mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
An upper level trough remains over the region tonight, with a
surface low remaining east of Long Island. This low remain nearly
stationary, with little movement, locking the region into a
persistent northeast to northerly flow.

While the forecast models have been trying to produce precipitation
over area, there has been decent mid level drying, which I expect to
continue, so will continue to trend the forecast in that direction.
Expect dry conditions, except I will keep some low POPs over the
eastern portions of New London CT and portions of the Twin Forks of
Long Island. Can not rule out a few rain showers in bands wrapping
around the spinning low.

Stuck close to the NBM for temperatures tonight. Expect lows in
the 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Very little change in the overall weather pattern through the short
term period with the upper trough remaining over the region and a
surface low remaining east of Long Island. One thing to note
however, is late in the period, as the surface low and upper trough
slightly shift eastward, this will allow ridging aloft to start
nosing in from the north.

Similar to the short term period, models continue to trend drier
this period. So will continue with a drier forecast with keeping
some some low POPS mainly across eastern sections of CT and Long
Island. It appears that the highest chances for any rain will remain
offshore.

The region will remain under a persistent N-NE flow.

Temperatures on Friday will be in the 70s and lower 80s. Lows Friday
night fall into the 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
**Key Points**

*Improving conditions Saturday into Sunday as high pressure builds
into the region.

*Downward temperature trend to slightly below normal temperatures
expected by early next week.

*A frontal system mid to late will bring with it additional chances
for showers.

The offshore low will still be spinning in place to start Saturday
and then slowly start to drift eastward. At the same time, high
pressure to out northeast slowly noses into our area. With the
surface ridging and some dry air moving into the area, much of the
area will remain dry on Saturday. The best chance of any showers
will be eastern Long Island and eastern CT. Given the tight pressure
gradient, a gusty northeast flow is expected. Gusts 25 to 35 mph for
eastern LI and eastern CT and mainly 20 to 25 elsewhere. Northeast
winds will begin to relax by Sunday afternoon as the low departs and
the pressure gradient weakens.

Thereafter, upper ridging begins to build in with surface high
pressure nosing in from the north. Dry conditions are generally
expected Sunday through Tuesday. A slightly cooler airmass advects
into the area for Monday and Tuesday under easterly flow and highs
in the upper 60s and low 70s.

The airmass begins to moderate somewhat on Wednesday, though still
below normal in the low 70s, with increasing cloud cover and a
chance of showers from an approaching frontal system to the west.
Guidance varies on timing, with some starting showers as early as
Tuesday night, while others keep the rain away until Thursday
morning. Overall, not expecting this to be a very impactful system,
rather just another chance for passing showers as the low passes
north with a front dragging through our area.

The NBM was primarily used for the forecast. Some adjustments were
made to low temps Sunday night across the interior as clear skies
and lightening winds may allow for some better cooling.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure remains offshore, southeast of Long Island,
through Friday.

VFR, except for far eastern terminals such as KGON, where
conditions may be MVFR overnight tonight into Friday
morning/early Friday afternoon.

Winds remain NE to N 10-15 kt with gusts to around 20 isolated
gusts to 25 kt are possible. Winds diminish to 10 kt or less,
with gusts ending after 02Z, but NE winds pick up again, to 10
to 15 kt tomorrow, with gusts 20-25 kt.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible mainly due to wind gusts, possibly not being
as strong as forecast.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Saturday Afternoon: VFR. MVFR east of the NYC terminals
in possible showers, but low chance of occurring. NE gusts
around 15-25 kt possible, highest gusts east.

Sunday: VFR. NE gusts 15-25 kt possible, highest gusts east.

Monday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisories remain up on the ocean waters through Friday
night and will likely need to be expanded in the weekend as a
persistent N-NE flow keep seas above 5 ft. SCA winds will be a
little more challenging to reach, however its likely we see some
gusts to 25 kt through parts of this time frame. For the non-ocean
waters, lesser confidence of reaching SCA conditions and have
cancelled the non-ocean SCA except for the far eastern sound, where
some 25kt gusts are possible through midnight. Confidence of SCA
conditions on the non-ocean waters is just not high enough at this
time for any headlines.

6-9 ft waves and 25-30kt gusts will continue on the ocean waters
this weekend and at the start of next week. While the LI Sound and
Bays may not see 5+ ft waves, gusts near 25 kt will be possible
until Sunday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic issues through the middle of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Multiple rounds of coastal flooding are expected through this
weekend with low pressure churning offshore, giving a steady NE flow
and piling of water. That along with building seas, and a recent
full moon are leading to higher total water levels forecasts.

Today and tonight will feature minor coastal flooding for much of
the coastline across SW CT, NYC, and Western Long Island. Statements
and advisories are out to address this. Tonight will be the
lower of the high tide cycles, with more surge on Friday.
Expect more widespread minor coastal flooding Friday. Some
coastlines Friday as a result will have their total water level
forecasts reach into the moderate coastal flood category,
particularly within the South Shore Bays and along the Western
Long Island Sound coastlines. This is where a coastal flood
watch has been issued. ETSS and just the 50th percentile of
Stevens are indicating this moderate coastal flood forecast. In
addition, Eastern Long Island and SE Connecticut could get minor
coastal flooding Friday.

More coastal flooding can be anticipated for this weekend during the
times of high tide. There will be minor to locally moderate coastal
flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 AM EDT
     Friday for CTZ009.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday
     afternoon for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 AM EDT
     Friday for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday
     afternoon for NYZ071-073-176-177.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ074-075.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Friday for NYZ080-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday
     afternoon for NYZ178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ332.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JT
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BC/JT
HYDROLOGY...BC/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...