920
FXUS61 KOKX 280608
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
208 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will settle south of the area today and moves offshore
on Friday. A frontal system then approaches in its wake and moves
across the area Friday into Friday evening. High pressure follows
for this weekend into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
High pressure overhead with calm winds this morning. Some patchy fog
potential remains across the interior as temperatures fall to the
dewpoint at some locations. GOES night fog product (10.3-3.9
micron) already showing some development in Orange County and
in the Delaware River Valley west of the forecast area. Any fog
is expected to be local and confined to valleys and interior
portions of the area, dissipating after sunrise.

Thereafter, another dry day on tap as winds become southerly this
afternoon and moisture advection increases as a result. Aloft, a
shortwave trough begins to approach from the Great Lakes region, and
an attendant sfc cold front as well by this evening. Some of the 00Z
convection-allowing models continue to depict some warm advection
showers, though isolated in nature across portions of the interior
late Thursday night ahead of the frontal system. Given the dry
subcloud layer in place per model soundings, prior to about 06Z, not
expecting much in the way of coverage.

High temperatures remain below average, in the mid and upper
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
By Friday morning as the front approaches, precipitation
chances increase from west to east by 12Z. The front itself
looks to slow down a bit on its approach as it becomes aligned
with the mid level flow while the main upper low slowly works
east across upstate NY. 00Z CAMS/HREF continue to show a broken
line of convection across eastern portions of the area, Southern
CT and Long Island, by Friday afternoon. This timing and
location matches the best instability axis (~1000 J/kg mean HREF
SBCAPE) and erosion of any CIN by early afternoon. Shear is
lacking however, so not really expecting much in the way of
severe thunderstorms, though small hail and gusty winds would be
possible with any stronger storms.

The front pushes offshore by Friday evening with high pressure
following. Highs on Friday should reach the middle to upper 70s with
potential of around 80 degrees in the NYC metro.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
No significant changes were made to the long term, and the NBM was
followed closely except where noted below.

Key Point:

* Dry and cool. Temperatures resembling normals for mid-September.

Upper-level low over the Northeast lifts outs through the weekend
with high pressure building both aloft and at the surface. Surface
high pressure is expected to hold on across the area through the
middle of next week.

What to watch for:

A longwave trough digging across central Canada and the Midwest
kicks a weak upper trough/low over the Tennessee Valley east. While
the general model trend keeps a surface low east of the local region
per this evening`s 00Z guidance, the ECMWF has been most persistent
with developing low pressure off the Southeast coast Tuesday and
working it north along the eastern seaboard on Wednesday. The GFS
has been bounced around from run-to-run, but neither the GEFS and
EPS support the low close enough to the coast for a significant
impacts. However, just something to keep an eye on as we go through
the holiday weekend.

Temperatures through the period will be closer to mid September
normals with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows mainly in the
lower 50s to lower 60s. A few locations may even get into the upper
40s. Used NBM10-25% for the Pine Barrens region of LI from Sunday
morning through Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will build to the south tonight, then move off
the mid Atlantic coast on Thursday as a cold front begins to
approach from the west.

VFR. Light NW flow this overnight should become light/variable
most terminals. S-SW flow Thursday morning will increase to
around 10 to 15 kt by afternoon, with some gusts 15-25 kt,
mainly fro the metro terminals

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday night and Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible
with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms late
Thursday night into Friday, and into Friday evening for eastern
terminals.

Saturday through Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through this afternoon.
Occasional gusts up to 25 kt are possible on the ocean west of
Fire Island Inlet due to increasing southerly flow this
evening. Gusts may peak around 20 kt on the rest of the waters.
Seas may also peak around 4 ft on the ocean during this time. A
cold front passage late Friday will allow winds and seas to
remain below SCA levels into Friday night.

Sub SCA conditions are likely under a weak pressure gradient
through the weekend into early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A strengthening southerly flow on Thursday will increase the rip
risk to moderate. However, the morning hours into the early
afternoon will be more in line with a low risk. Moderate
conditions then continue into Friday with an incoming wind wave
of 4-5 ft 6s.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DBR
NEAR TERM...DBR
SHORT TERM...DBR
LONG TERM...DBR/DW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...DBR
HYDROLOGY...DBR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...