424
FXUS61 KOKX 011131
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
731 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches later today and pivots through late tonight
into Wednesday morning. Another cold front approaches Thursday and
moves through the area Thursday evening followed by high pressure
building into the area during Friday and into the weekend. Another
frontal system may impact the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A good deal of cloud cover will be around through at least mid
morning to late morning with debris from previous shower and
convective activity. The a pre-frontal trough sets up across the
western portion of the area for the afternoon. At the same time
thickness ridging works into the area with a very moisture rich and
warm air mass settled in with 576+ thickness values, quite sultry.
Fairly confident that hazy sunshine breaks through with the entire
region deeply in the warm sector. It will be close to heat advisory
criteria across the urban corridor of NE NJ, NYC, into urban
Westchester and urban portions of SW CT. Heat index values should
get into the middle and a few upper 90s in all likelihood. Perhaps a
few spots could get to 99 or 100 heat index values for an hour late
in the day but this would be very short lived and lacks the
coverage, thus no heat advisory is issued. In any event, hot and
humid conditions throughout the region with 80s even along the coast
with high dew points resulting in near 90 heat index values
even near the water. The question around convection is how soon
does it initiate this afternoon as the CAMs are not consistent
with the start time. One issue is some CAMs are having trouble
as to whether to have the pre-frontal trough as the main
trigger, or the actual cold front further off to the west. With
the timing of things slightly slower leaning towards the pre-
frontal trough being the main initiator of strong to possibly
severe convection for the afternoon and evening. There could be
another pulse of convection later in the evening / night, but it
would likely be primarily non-severe as previous activity may
have worked thing over a little and also getting away from the
peak diurnal heating later at night with the arrival of the
actual cold front. SPC has a marginal risk of severe weather for
the eastern 2/3rds of the area and a slight risk confined
mainly to the NE NJ zones. The primary hazard with any strong to
severe convection will be strong to potentially damaging wind
gusts. The limiting factor to widespread severe storms looks to
be marginal mid-level lapse rates and marginal shear values
close to 30 kt depending on the guidance one looks at. WPC has
slight risk of excessive rainfall across much of the area, and a
marginal risk across mainly across the eastern and northern
portions of the area. Training / repeating storms would be the
culprit if flash flooding were to take place, but at this point
leaning more towards a localized urban related risk due to high
instantaneous rainfall rates. Also see the Hydro section for
further information.

Kept PoPs elevated all night long based on the newest data with
things progressing a tad slower, with higher POPs east into the
overnight. With the cold front more or less slowing late at night
look for a damp and cloudy, muggy night with temperatures remaining
primarily in the 70s with dewpoint readings remaining elevated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Clouds remain into Wednesday morning as the front struggles to get
further east. Western most location should begin to clear sooner
than eastern sections. Chance showers remain for most of the morning
across eastern most sections, primarily east of the metro. Toward
mid day PoPs really trail off with only a slight chance of lingering
showers across eastern most sections during the afternoon. Dew point
readings will remain elevated and only lower slightly, mainly across
NW sections later in the day. Temperatures overall will be a tad
cooler with mainly middle 80s, with some lower 80s closer to the
coast on a light W to SW wind. More of a sea breeze influence is
anticipated further southeast and along the coast in the afternoon
with a light synoptic gradient and the front more or less washing
out nearby. Cannot totally rule out an isolate shower or storm in
the afternoon as hinted by some CAMs, but have kept this out of the
forecast wording for the time being.

For Wednesday night clouds get further east and mainly offshore late
with only a subtle drop in humidity was dewpoint remain primarily in
the middle 60s across much of the area. Thus temperatures should
only fall into the middle and upper 60s in most places, with lower
70s in the metro, with perhaps a little patchy fog in the outlying
areas possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
No significant changes were made to the extended forecast with only
a few minor edits made to NBM guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front slowly approaches from the west today and stalls over
the area during Wednesday morning.

VFR outside of afternoon/evening showers and potential thunderstorms
when MVFR (cigs/vsbys) to brief IFR (vsbys) would be possible.

Winds mostly SW 5-10kt, increasing to 10-15kt this afternoon with
gusts around 20 kt. Winds then become lighter tonight as they shift
more westerly.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Starting time of potential shra/tstm this afternoon indicated in
TAFs could be an hour or two too early.

Occasional wind gusts around 20 kt possible for a couple of hours
before indicated in TAFs.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR.

Thursday: Possible showers and thunderstorms with brief MVFR or
lower possible day into early eve, higher chances north and west of
NYC terminals.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
As a cold front approaches a southerly flow increases today as ocean
seas will build mostly to 4 to 5 ft with gusts of 20 to 25 kt
resulting in small craft conditions on the ocean, with sub advisory
conditions on the western non-ocean waters. Also, the eastern non-
ocean waters should fall just short of small craft criteria later
today into this evening with perhaps an occasional gust to around 25
kt.

For Wednesday sub advisory conditions should return on the ocean
with a W to SW wind and ocean seas mainly remaining at around 4 ft.
Generally tranquil conditions Wednesday night through Saturday will
result in sub-SCA on all waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There remains a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall via
WPC for today and tonight. With high precipitable water in place
instantaneous rain rates are likely to be high, leading to a
localized risk of flash flooding in association with any stronger
thunderstorms. Repeating and training cells would have to take place
for the risk of localized flash flooding to be realized as there
will be a uniform SW flow through the column with speeds getting
over 30 kt in the mid levels. Overall the risk of flash flooding
looks limited in coverage, and should remain localized and confined
to mostly urban locations. More widespread flooding would become
more of a risk only if rainfall rates can overachieve for multiple
hours.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high risk of rip currents on Tuesday, and this should
also be the case into Wednesday with wave heights not coming down
much, along with a lingering 9 second easterly swell component.
Thus, continuing with the high rip current risk at least through
this evening, and potentially being extended at some point into
Wednesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JE
HYDROLOGY...JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...