124
FXUS61 KOKX 181156
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
756 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will sag well to the south this morning. High
pressure building to the north today will move off the northern
New England coast on Tuesday. A weakening frontal system
approaches from the west Wednesday. Hurricane Erin will pass
well to the southeast on Thursday, bringing indirect impacts
mainly along the shoreline. High pressure will return by late
week, then a cold front will approach from the west late this
weekend. Please refer to National Hurricane Center forecasts for
further information on Erin.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Vigorous closed low sinks SE through the Canadian Maritimes
today, with region on edge of NE troughing and central/southern
US ridging. At the surface, a cold front continues to sink SE
towards the Mid Atlantic, with Canadian high pressure building
into New England. Isolated early morning showers and cloudy
skies to start the day, with gradual clearing from NE to SW in
the afternoon as mid-levels gradual dry underneath a strong mid-
level subsidence inversion.

Temps will run a good 10-20 degrees cooler than Sunday, and
several degrees below seasonable in response to gusty NE CAA
flow (25-30 mph) in the morning and Canadian maritime flow,
cloud cover, and limited mixing during the day.

Wind diminish tonight as high noses in, particularly across
interior, bringing potential for a bit of radiational cooling
into the upper 40s across northern tier. 50 to lower 60s for
city and coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Increasingly high surf and dangerous rip currents.

Region remains on edge of NE troughing and central/southern US
ridging to start the period, with good agreement in a couple of
weak shortwaves approaching from the NW thru the Great Lakes
Tuesday and Wednesday, amplifying NE US troughing. This feature
will help steer hurricane Erin on a NE-ward course as it makes
its closest approach to Cape Hatteras Wed Night. Please refer to
National Hurricane Center forecasts for the latest forecast
information on Erin.

At the surface, a cold front continues to press down into the Mid-
Atlantic as the center of high pressure slides SE across New England
and then offshore, while nosing towards the region. High pressure
will remain stationary through Wednesday Night maintaining a
persistent E/NE flow and slowly moderating Canadian maritime airmass
across the region through the period.

At this point, appears to be a persistent E-NE flow 10-15 mph
with gusts up to 20 mph along the coastal plain, slightly
higher along the immediate shoreline through Wednesday. A
stronger pressure gradient will lie closer to the stationary
front across the Mid Atlantic. Will have to monitor models
trends and NHC forecast for Wed Night into Fri AM for a
strengthening of wind fields locally (particularly SE coastal
areas) as Erin makes it closest approach and it becomes a bit
more asymmetric warm core with expanding wind field.

Otherwise, conditions appears mainly dry through the period,
with Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night shortwave and weakening
surface troughs approaches in a subsident environment. NAM is
indicating a bit more aggressive moisture return for Tue Night
into Wed Night period, which would increase potential for
showers. ECMWF also showing potential for some showers with Wed
Night disturbance. Certainly not a PRE-setup (limited theta-e
transport poleward of TC into the region), but could see some
strengthening of ULJ and shortwave in response to Erin to
increase chance for showers Wed aft/Wed Night.

Otherwise, daytime temps slightly moderating Tue and Wed, but
still remaining a few degrees below seasonable. Generally mid
to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points:

* Life threatening surf and rip currents Thursday into Friday.

* Widespread areas of beach flooding, dune erosion and localized
  overwashes along the ocean beachfront Thursday into Friday.

By Thursday, Hurricane Erin will be passing well to the SE. The only
sensible weather impact will be a brisk NE flow with perhaps some
gusts upwards of 30 mph along the eastern coastline. Other indirect
impacts will be felt along the coastline; see the Tides/Coastal
Flooding section for details.

Ridging at the sfc/aloft will build in after Erin`s departure on
Fri, with mostly clear skies and a flow shifting from N to SE-S by
afternoon. This will allow temperatures to rise back to normal
levels Friday as well as a subtle increase in moisture. Another
frontal system may approach the area from the west late this weekend
with chance of showers and possibly a tstm Sat night into
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure building to the north today will move off the
northern New England coast on Tuesday.

MVFR cond this morning should improve to VFR by afternoon. NE
winds 10-15 with some gust up to 20 kt this morning will also
diminish to around 10 kt this afternoon and veer ENE early this
afternoon, then SE late. ESE winds less than 10 kt become ENE
overnight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts this morning may only be occasional.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Chance of afternoon/evening showers mainly at KSWF with
MVFR cond possible, otherwise VFR. E-SE winds G20kt at the
metro/coastal terminals in the afternoon.

Thursday: VFR. NE winds G20kt.

Friday: VFR. NE winds G20kt in the morning at KISP/KGON.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA for all waters this morning with E/NE gusts to 30 kt. Winds and
gusts should gradually diminish this afternoon across the nearshore
waters, but likely remain at around 20 kt through midweek for the
ocean waters south of LI.

Persistent easterly flow will maintain 4 to 7 ft easterly wind waves
across the ocean waters through Tuesday, giving way to rough
conditions mid to late week as 15+ft sec long period swells build
thru mid week, peaking at 10-15+ft Thu Night. Increasingly dangerous
conditions expected at the inlets and entrance to E LIS through mid
to late week.

SCA cond will continue into Thu and Fri on the ocean and also the
ern Sound, due to long period swells in advance of Hurricane Erin,
also some wind gusts to 25-30 kt on the ocean Thu into Thu night.
Swell should peak Thu night at 10-15 ft on the ocean (highest east)
and at 5-10 ft on the Sound E of the CT River and Orient Point. Sea
gradually diminish thereafter but should still be at 5-7 ft even into
daytime Sat.

Please refer to National Hurricane Center forecasts for further
information on Erin.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The overall rip current for today should be moderate, though it
could increase to high by late day as long period swells (2 ft
@ 15 sec) from Hurricane Erin start to arrive. A high rip
current risk is forecast for Tuesday as the swell from Hurricane
Erin increases. Longer term, life- threatening surf and rip
currents expected for the rest of this week as building long
period swells from Erin continue, peaking on Thu/Fri.

The threat for beach flooding, beach erosion and escarpment and
areas of dune erosion will increase with successive high tides
Tue thru Thu night. Widespread areas of dune erosion are likely
with localized overwashes during the Thu evening high tide,
possibly Fri AM high tide, as very long period swells of 9-14 ft
@ 16-17 sec (highest east) arrive head on, producing surf at
least that high if not higher due to runup as they approach
shore and enter shallower water. This high surf will be
combined with elevated water levels as we approach a new moon.

Bias-corrected STOFS guidance in the longer term appears to be
gradually catching up to the situation, indicating widespread
minor coastal flooding for the Thu night high tide cycle and
more isolated flooding Fri evening as seas subside. Departures
only 1/2 ft higher (reasonable worst case) could lead to
moderate flooding in spots with both cycles.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG/NV
HYDROLOGY...BG/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...