277
FXUS61 KOKX 090905
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
405 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area today and lingers into Sunday
before shifting offshore Sunday night. A frontal system moves
through the area Sunday night through Monday. High pressure then
builds in again for the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper level ridging accompanied by surface high pressure builds
in during the day today. As a frontal system departs to the
east, the pressure gradient will remain fairly tight this
morning allowing for the continuation of gusty NW winds,
particularly as daytime heating allow for deeper mixing of the
BL. NW winds will be 10-15 mph with gusts upwards of 25-30 mph
this morning. Anomalously dry conditions in conjunction with the
persistent gusty winds will continue to allow for a high risk
of fire danger. As such a Red Flag Warning remains in effect as
as fires may catch and spread very easily under these
conditions. Highs today will be in the 50s.


As the day progresses and high pressure becomes more established,
the wind should begin to subside.High pressure centers itself
overhead tonight, allowing for light to calm winds and clear
skies. This should be a fairly decent setup for efficient
radiational cooling. Much of the Connecticut coastline and much
of Central and Eastern Long Island are expected to drop to near
freezing, and since the growing season hasn`t yet ended, Freeze
Warnings are in effect through early Sunday morning.
Additionally, Frost Advisories are in effect for Nassau,
southern Westchester, and eastern Bergen Counties with low
temperatures in the middle 30s potentially allowing for the
development of widespread frost.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridging persists on Sunday with high pressure
slowly making its way offshore through the day, allowing for
mostly clear skies and dry conditions, particularly during the
morning hours. Upstream a trough and embedded shortwave
approaches the area from the Great Lakes region. Return flow on
the backside of the departing high pressure and ahead of the
approaching frontal system will allow for an increasing SW flow
to quickly advect more moderate air and moisture into the area
during the day. Highs will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

At the surface, a frontal system begins pushing into the area
late on Sunday, clouds will continue to increase throughout the
day, but the column will take time to saturate so any rain
showers associated with the frontal system likely won`t reach
the area until near or after sunset. Widespread light rain is
expected for much of the region overnight Sunday and into early
Monday. Generally a quarter to a half inch of rain is expected.

The cold front pushes through the area by Monday morning through
winds should remain fairly brisk out of the west behind it. High
temperatures will rise into the middle to upper 60s with
generally clear skies and a well-mixed BL. The area remains
under a generally upper-level trough through Monday night before
highs pressure begins to nose in once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Looking at Northern Hemispherical upper level wave pattern,
amplitude of Rossby Wave moving into Western US Tuesday not as large
as seen with model runs 24 hours previously with less wavelength.
Downstream the models are now indicating less upstream ridging than
was seen previously. For Tuesday, the upper level trough exits the
local region with ridging thereafter through Wednesday.

The trough from Western US arrives into local area Thursday, but
with main jet streaks west and south of the local area Thursday into
Thursday night. Trough axis moves across Thursday night, oriented
from NW to SE. GFS strongest with western side jet streak. For
Friday into Saturday, trough exits, and ridge to the west approaches.

At the surface, a cold front passes through early Tuesday. This will
be followed by high pressure building in from Southeast Canada. This
high pressure area will continue building in through Wednesday and
will then shift northeast of the region, heading into the Canadian
Maritimes Wednesday night.

An area of low pressure approaches Wednesday night and moves in for
Thursday with its associated frontal system. The low and frontal
system northeast of the region and slow down Friday. There will be a
prolonged chance of rain showers with this system Wednesday night
through Thursday night with some possibility of lingering rain
showers Friday into Friday night as well.

The system for late in the week appears to be weaker than previously
forecast. Forecast trend has lowered with rainfall with this system
with some possibility of dry intervals and not rainfall the entire
timeframe. Kept upper limit of POPs to chance.

Temperatures overall not expected to deviate much from normal.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds in through the TAF period.

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. NW gusty winds
continue through this morning, and more substantially decrease this
afternoon. Winds drop to less than 10 kts or less tonight into
early Sunday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

End time of wind gusts could be off by 1-3 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Tonight: VFR. Light and variable winds overnight.

Sunday: VFR into the afternoon, then becoming MVFR with possible
rain late. MVFR or lower in rain at night with rain.

Monday: MVFR with rain ending during the morning, eventually
becoming VFR. W-SW winds 10 to 15 kt, gusts 15-20 kt. Gusts ending
after sunset.

Tuesday: VFR. NW winds near 10 kt with gusts 15-20 kt. Gusts mainly
during the day into early evening.

Wednesday: VFR.


Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA remains in effect for all waters into early this morning for
NW gusts 25-30kt. NW ocean wind waves expected to be 5-6 feet in
response, and continue at 3 to 5 ft on central and eastern LI sound
this morning.

Sub-SCA conditions return from W to E this morning into afternoon as
high pressure builds over the waters with winds and wind waves
relaxing.

SCA conditions likely re-develop for the ocean zones Sunday night
into Monday with the approach of a frontal system that moves through
the area. Sheltered waters may see gusts approach 25kt, but
confidence in reaching SCA thresholds is higher on the ocean at this
time. There may be some lingering 5 ft ocean seas Monday evening but
otherwise, wave heights are likely to remain below SCA
thresholds Monday night through Wednesday night across the
forecast waters. For wind gusts, potential for 25 kt gusts on
eastern waters, especially the eastern ocean waters for Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Otherwise, sub-SCA wind gusts are forecast
for Tuesday through Wednesday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warning for elevated fire danger remains in effect through
6PM for the entire area based on anomalously dry/drought conditions,
meteorological factors, and coordination on available fuels with
fire officials/land managers.

NW winds gusts likely to increase once again this morning to the 20
to 25 mph range across the area, with RH values dropping to 30
percent by late morning. NW 20 to 25mph gusts likely till at least
midday for LoHud/NYC and into mid afternoon for LI before gradually
dropping off into the afternoon and evening as high pressure builds
overhead.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate drought conditions have developed across the area per
US Drought Monitor. Streamflows are generally below the 25th
percentile of normal for this time of year. There are no
other hydrologic concerns through mid next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012.
     Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Sunday for
     CTZ009>012.
NY...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ211>213.
     Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Sunday for
     NYZ078>081.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Sunday for
     NYZ071-177-179.
NJ...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Sunday for
     NJZ104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ331-
     332-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ335-
     338.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/MW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JM/MW