732
FXUS61 KOKX 041740
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
140 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region tonight slowly drifts east, but
remains in control through the weekend. A cold front approaches
from the Great Lakes on Monday, passing slowly across the area
Tuesday or even stalling in close proximity into midweek. A more
robust frontal system may approach the area by the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Deep-layered ridging keeps us dry with very little, if any, cloud
cover. Maybe some cirrus moving in late at night. Relatively
comfortable dew points as well this evening in the 55-60 degree
range along with winds below 10 mph. Evening temperatures in the 70s
are expected to drop to overnight lows mostly in the 60s, except
well inland and the Pine Barrens where it should drop into the mid
50s with good radiational cooling conditions for much of the night.
Blended in MET/MAV MOS guidance in these spots as NBM is usually too
warm in these instances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
h5 ridge axis approaches from the west during the period and
flattens a little by the time it`s overhead. Some over-the-ridge
cirrus anticipated on Saturday, but generally partly to mostly sunny
as the sun would only be filtered through the clouds and not
completely blocked out. Dewpoints remain at relatively comfortable
levels for this time of the year, and NBM looked good with high
temperatures being mostly in the mid 80s. The urban corridor of NE
NJ should however reach the upper 80s.

Dry weather continues on Sunday with subsidence and capping. h8
temperatures warm up to 17-18C, so anticipating highs in the low-mid
90s in the usual warmest spots in NE NJ, and mostly upper 80s to
around 90 away from the immediate south-facing coasts. NBM looked a
little too low based on this analysis, so blended in the warmer 50th
percentile NBM for high temperatures. Dewpoints will be a little
higher this time, leading to maximum heat indices in the low-mid 90s
for NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley. Not enough coverage of 95+
heat indices anywhere for 2-day advisory consideration during the
Sunday-Monday period. Will need to see if Sunday`s heat indices
trend upward with subsequent forecasts.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Despite the unsettled nature of the extended forecast, global models
were in fairly decent agreement, so the NBM was closely followed.

The area will remain generally between a subtle trough to the west
and a ridge to the east over the Western Atlantic. A cold front
approaches the area Monday, eventually moving through the area and
stalling in the vicinity by Tuesday. By Tuesday, heights aloft will
lower but flow should remain fairly zonal with a subtle trough to
the west. Disturbances in the flow will traverse the area through
much of the middle of the week.

High pressure over the Western Atlantic will promote a general S/SW
flow which likely brings subtropical moisture up the East Coast. The
combination of several mid-level disturbances moving through, a
stalled surface boundary in the vicinity, and a moist S/SW flow will
allow for much of the extended portion of the forecast to have a
chance for showers and thunderstorms.

By the end of the week, more robust energy in the flow approaches
from the west and allows the trough to dig into the Northeast. This
will provide for a better opportunity for showers and storms as well
as a slight decreases in temperatures.

Temperatures will be generally above average on Monday with highs in
the middle 80s to low 90s. Despite chances for showers each day,
high temperatures should remain in the low to middle 80s through the
end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR as high pressure builds builds over the terminals through
tonight, then offshore on Saturday.

VFR. NW winds 10-13 kt with gusts 17-20 kt through early evening.
Winds may back to the SW late afternoon/early evening from KJFK
to Long Island terminals with potential sea breeze development.
Winds weaken this evening and become light and variable
overnight. SSW winds are expected to develop Saturday morning,
increasing to around 10 kt in the afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be occasional this afternoon.

Wind direction could back to the SW at KJFK 21-23z with a late
day sea breeze.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday night: VFR.

Sunday: VFR. SSW gusts up to 20 kt possible Sunday afternoon.

Monday-Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers
and isolated thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters through at least
Sunday morning. Near-advisory gusts are expected Sunday afternoon
into evening on the ocean with seas climbing to around 4 ft.

Generally weak flow will then result in sub-SCA conditions on
all waters Monday through at least Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrological concerns are expected through the
beginning of next week. Some tropical moisture may feed into the
area Tuesday into Wednesday which may allow for an environment
with the potential for heavy rainfall. WPC has portions of the
area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for this
timeframe.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A low rip current risk continues at the ocean beaches into this
evening except for a moderate risk for the beaches from Smith
Point to Montauk Point. A low rip current risk is expected for
all beaches on Saturday.

&&