724
FXUS61 KOKX 121121
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
721 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure strengthens over eastern Canada today as a coastal low
moves up the east coast. This coastal low will impact the area today
through Monday before it starts to gradually drift east. High
pressure will build in mid to late week and will settle nearby to
begin next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

* A coastal storm will impact the area today through Monday bringing
  significant coastal flooding, strong to damaging winds and long
  duration rainfall.

* Coastal flood warnings are in effect for most of the coastline
  with widespread moderate flooding expected and locally major
  flooding for southern Nassau/SW Suffolk. Advisories in effect for
  the CT coastline for minor flooding. Widespread beach erosion and
  localized overwashes are also expected along the oceanfront. See
  the Tides/Coastal Flooding section for more details.

* Strongest winds expected Sunday evening into early Monday morning.
  Damaging winds sustained up to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
  expected across the east end of Long Island. Strong winds expected
  elsewhere mainly in the NYC metro area and along the coast, with
  gusts 45-55 mph, highest across Long Island.

* Moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall expected from Sunday
  afternoon into Monday afternoon. Rainfall of 2-3 inches
  expected for most of NYC and Long Island, with lesser amts of
  1-2 inches north/west of NYC. Minor nuisance/poor drainage
  flooding is possible in typically flood prone areas.

Per latest 00z upper air analysis and very faint circulation evident
in water vapor satellite imagery the northern stream upper level low
is currently centered over western NY. A much broader upper level
low can be seen over the southeast US. The latter has helped spin up
a surface low off that is currently off the Carolina coast. There is
agreement across the guidance with the gradual phasing of these
upper level features late today through tonight. However, there is
still some uncertainty with exactly how the surface features will
react. The GFS and ECMWF and some CAMs develop a secondary low
off the DelMarVa while some of the other guidance brings the
main low up and elongates it. Regardless of which solution
verifies, overall low pressure will pivot northwest towards the
area and tighten the pressure gradient significantly with the
help of a 1030mb high over eastern Canada.

The forecast has not changed much and no changes were made to
headlines. Steady light rain likely comes onshore late this morning
with steady moderate rain expected more towards the afternoon. Rain
is then expected through Monday. Thunder is not expected but can not
be ruled out with some elevated instability so have left in the
forecast for coastal areas at slight chance. Winds gradually
increase this morning and peak this evening into Monday morning. The
latest NAM is coming in the strongest with the LLJ by quite a bit
with 60kt at 950mb for eastern LI. Nudged gusts up a bit because of
this, but headlines did not change since this area is already
covered by a High Wind Warning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Conditions remain windy and wet Monday night but winds will
decrease as the pressure gradient slackens given the weakening
high over eastern Canada. Rain should still be pretty steady
for at least the first half of Monday night and will gradually
taper off. Breaks of sun look possible for western areas by
Tuesday afternoon, with Tuesday night potentially being mostly
clear.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

*Dry conditions prevail Wednesday through the first half of next
weekend. Back to dry conditions for mid to late week.

*Near normal temperatures on Wednesday will trend below normal
Thursday into Friday. A trend back to normal begins next weekend.

Upper troughing will persist across the western Atlantic through the
rest of the week with ridging building to our west. A few spokes of
upper energy may pass by on the backside of the trough, but the
atmosphere is quite dry with N-NW flow aloft.
Surface high pressure will slowly build towards the area through the
end of the week and then settle over the eastern seaboard next
Saturday as the upper ridge is able to settle overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
***High impact coastal storm through Monday***

Mainly VFR before 14z with MVFR ceilings developing from south
to north through the afternoon. Light rain will also develop
after 14z and become widespread by early afternoon. The rain
becomes moderate to locally heavy this evening and continues
into the overnight with IFR, which prevails through Monday
morning.

NE winds increase this morning and early afternoon. Gusts 25-35
kt will develop this morning and continue into the early
afternoon. Gusts continue to increase late afternoon/early
evening with gusts 35-40 kt and sustained winds around 20-30
kt. The strongest winds are expected at NYC and coastal
terminals. There is also potential for peak gusts around 50 kt
after 00z at eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut
terminals. Winds may start to weaken a bit after 06z Monday.

LLWS expected this evening at KJFK, KLGA, KISP, KBDR, and KGON
with winds at 2kft around 50 kt. Winds at 2kft are a bit weaker
elsewhere, so have left LLWS out of the TAF.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely for ceilings and visibilities, especially this
afternoon through tonight.

Peak gusts around 45 kt possible after 22z through around 06z
tonight, especially at KJFK and KLGA.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: Rain. MVFR or lower conditions. NE winds 15-20 kt with gusts
25-40 kt early, then gusts 25-30 kt in the afternoon and evening.

Monday Night-Tuesday: Rain gradually ends into Tuesday morning.
MVFR or lower conditions. N-NE winds gusting 20-30 kt, strongest
near the coast.

Tuesday: MVFR to start with a chance of showers. VFR becoming likely
in the afternoon. N to NNE winds sustained at 10-15kt, G20-25kt.

Wednesday-Thursday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A coastal storm will impact the waters today through Monday
bringing strong winds and dangerous seas. Headlines remain
unchanged with a Storm Warning for all waters except the western
LI Sound and NY Harbor where there is a Gale Warning. Across the
ocean waters, gusts will be as high as 55kt with significant
wave heights up to around 20 feet. For the other waters under a
Storm Warning, gusts will be closer to 45 to 50 kt and gusts in
the Gale Warning areas should peak around 45 kt. Waves on the
LI Sound will likely reach 7 to 10 feet as well as right near
the entrance of the NY Harbor.

As the storm pulls away, headlines may need to be stepped down
as relatively windy conditions will continue for several days. SCA
conditions continue on all waters Wednesday into Thursday due
to building high pressure and lingering swells.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is expected today through
Monday night. While minor nuisance/poor drainage flooding is
possible, no significant impacts are expected with this being a
long duration rainfall and recent dry conditions.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Confidence continues increasing in widespread moderate to major
coastal flooding for the this afternoon, and moreso tonight and
possibly Monday afternoon high tide cycles along the western
Great South Bay as ENE-NE winds ramp up to marginal storm force
this afternoon into tonight. This will pose an elevated threat
to life and property. There is low potential for major coastal
flooding for Jamaica Bay with the Sunday Night and Monday
afternoon high tide cycles as well.

Elsewhere, confidence is high in areas of moderate coastal
flooding along N and E facing coastlines along Western LI Sound,
and twin forks of LI with combination of water levels reaching
marginal moderate flood levels, along with 3-6ft breaking wave
action. In addition, areas of moderate coastal flooding expected
along NY/NJ harbor, including the tidally affected rivers of NE
NJ, particularly the Hackensack River. Coastal flood warnings
are in effect for these areas.

Meanwhile, a widespread minor to locally moderate coastal flood
threat exist for southern CT where NE winds should limit wave
action and keep moderate flood impacts to localized. In
addition, scattered areas of minor to locally moderate coastal
flooding expected along low lying areas along the Hudson R
during times of high tide this aft thru Monday aft as surge if
forced up the river. A coastal flood advisory and flood advisory
has been issued respectively here.

A blend of 75th percentile Stevens, 75th percentile PETSS, and
deterministic STOFS and ETSS was used for this forecast. The
75th percentile was used in the ensemble guidance to give
credence to potentially stronger winds regimes than indicated
by the GFS forced deterministic guidances.

There still remains uncertainty on how quickly winds back from
NE to N, and/or subside on Monday aft based on ultimate track
and intensity of low pressure. If winds back to more of a
northerly direction or weaken quicker than anticipated, water
levels could be lower than currently indicated, particularly for
open water adjacent areas. Will have to re-evaluate over the
next 12-24 hrs.

Finally along the oceanfront, widespread dune base erosion and
localized overwashes are likely during the times of high tide
today thru Monday, via the combo of high stormtide and breaking
surf around 8 to 12 ft. The prolonged e to w sweep will likely
result in considerable beach erosion (escarpment) as well. 4-8
ft surf along NE facing and open water exposed areas of the twin
forks of LI will also likely cause minor to moderate dune
erosion.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT Monday for
     CTZ009>012.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Monday for CTZ009>012.
NY...Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT Monday for
     NYZ071>075-078-080-176>179.
     Coastal Flood Warning from noon today to 6 PM EDT Monday for
     NYZ072-074-075-178.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Monday for NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
     Coastal Flood Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     NYZ079-081.
     High Wind Warning from noon today to 6 PM EDT Monday for
     NYZ079-081.
     Coastal Flood Warning from noon today to 7 PM EDT Monday for
     NYZ080-179.
NJ...Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT Monday for NJZ006-
     106-108.
     Coastal Flood Warning from noon today to 6 PM EDT Monday for
     NJZ006-104-106-108.
MARINE...Storm Warning until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ331-332-340-345-350-
     353-355.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ335-338.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS/JT
HYDROLOGY...DS/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...