003
FXUS61 KOKX 121757
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
157 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure strengthens over eastern Canada today as low
pressure moves up the East Coast. This low will impact the area
through Monday before it starts to gradually drift east.
High pressure will build in mid to late week and settle nearby
to begin next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Quick update to address near term trend, namely slower onset of
rain and faster onset of winds.

Key Messages:

* A coastal storm will impact the area bringing significant
  coastal flooding, strong to damaging winds and long duration
  rainfall.

* Coastal flood warnings are in effect for most of the coastline
  with widespread moderate flooding expected and locally major
  flooding for southern Nassau/SW Suffolk. Advisories in effect for
  the CT coastline for minor flooding. Widespread beach erosion and
  localized overwashes are also expected along the oceanfront. See
  the Tides/Coastal Flooding section for more details.

* Strongest winds expected this evening into early Monday
  morning. Damaging winds sustained up to 40 mph with gusts up
  to 60 mph expected across the east end of Long Island. Strong
  winds expected elsewhere mainly in the NYC metro area and
  along the coast, with gusts 45-55 mph, highest across Long
  Island.

* Moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall expected from Sunday
  afternoon into Monday afternoon. Rainfall of 2-3 inches
  expected for most of NYC and Long Island, with lesser amts of
  1-2 inches north/west of NYC. Minor nuisance/poor drainage
  flooding is possible in typically flood prone areas.

Per 00Z upper air analysis and very faint circulation evident
in water vapor satellite imagery the northern stream upper level
low is currently centered over western NY. A much broader upper
level low can be seen over the Southeast US. The latter has
helped spin up a surface low off that is currently off the
Carolina coast. There is agreement across the guidance with the
gradual phasing of these upper level features late today through
tonight. However, there is still some uncertainty with exactly
how the surface features will react. The GFS and ECMWF and some
CAM`s develop a secondary low off the DelMarVa while some of
the other guidance brings the main low up and elongates it.
Regardless of which solution verifies, overall low pressure will
pivot northwest toward the area and tighten the pressure
gradient significantly with the help of a 1030 mb high over
eastern Canada.

The forecast has not changed much and no changes were made to
headlines. Steady light rain likely comes onshore late this
morning into this afternoon, with steady moderate rain expected
from NYC east this afternoon. Rain is then expected through
Monday. Thunder can not be ruled out via some modest elevated
instability so have left in the forecast for coastal areas at
slight chance. Winds gradually increase today and peak this
evening into Monday morning. The latest NAM is coming in the
strongest with the LLJ by quite a bit with 60 kt at 950 mb for
eastern Long Island. Nudged gusts up a bit because of this, but
headlines did not change since this area is already covered by
a High Wind Warning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Conditions remain windy and wet Monday night but winds will
decrease as the pressure gradient slackens given the weakening
high over eastern Canada. Rain should still be pretty steady
for at least the first half of Monday night and will gradually
taper off. Breaks of sun look possible for western areas by
Tuesday afternoon, with Tuesday night potentially being mostly
clear.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Dry conditions prevail Wednesday through the first half of
  next weekend. Back to dry conditions for mid to late week.

* Near normal temperatures on Wednesday will trend below normal
  Thursday into Friday. A trend back to normal begins next
  weekend.

Upper troughing will persist across the western Atlantic through
the rest of the week with ridging building to our west. A few
spokes of upper energy may pass by on the backside of the
trough, but the atmosphere is quite dry with N-NW flow aloft.
Surface high pressure will slowly build towards the area through
the end of the week and then settle over the eastern seaboard
next Saturday as the upper ridge is able to settle overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
***High impact coastal storm through Monday***

Rain overspreading from the south and west through this afternoon,
with conditions declining to sub VFR, persisting through the
TAF period.

Pushed back this decline by an hour or two with a bit slower
progression of the precip and lower cigs, but expect by 20 or
21Z all terminals will be raining and sub VFR.The rain becomes
moderate this evening and continues into the overnight with
IFR, prevailing through Monday morning, if not through the day
as the steady rain transitions into numerous showers.

NE flow strengthens through the afternoon. Gusts already up to
35 kt at coastal terminals as of 18Z, and will increase further
late afternoon/early evening with gusts up to 40 kt and
sustained winds 20-25 kt. The strongest winds are expected at
NYC and coastal terminals, with potential for peak gusts up to
50 kt after 00z at KISP and KGON, and perhaps even KLGA and
KJFK. Winds may start to weaken a bit after 06z Monday.

LLWS expected this evening at KJFK, KLGA, KISP, KBDR, and KGON with
winds at 2kft around 50 kt. Winds at 2kft are a bit weaker
elsewhere, so LLWS is left out of the TAF these other terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for ceilings and visibilities, especially this
afternoon through tonight.

Peak gusts 45 to 50 kt possible after 22z through around 06z
tonight, especially at KJFK and KLGA.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Afternoon: Showers. MVFR or lower conditions. NE winds
15-20 kt with gusts 25-35 kt, gradually lowering into the evening.

Monday Night: Showers taper into Tuesday morning. MVFR or lower
conditions. N-NE winds gusting 20-30 kt, strongest near the
coast.

Tuesday: MVFR to start with a chance of showers. VFR becoming likely
in the afternoon. N to NNE winds sustained at 10-15kt, G20-25kt.

Wednesday-Thursday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Friday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A coastal storm will impact the waters through Monday bringing
strong winds and dangerous seas. Headlines remain unchanged
with a Storm Warning for all waters except the western Long
Island Sound and NY Harbor where there is a Gale Warning.
Across the ocean waters, gusts will be as high as 55 kt with
significant wave heights up to around 20 ft. For the other
waters under a Storm Warning, gusts will be closer to 45-50 kt
and gusts in the Gale Warning areas should peak around 45 kt.
Waves on the Long Island Sound will likely reach 7-10 feet as
well as right near the entrance of the NY Harbor.

As the storm pulls away, headlines may need to be stepped down
as relatively windy conditions will continue for several days.
SCA conditions continue on all waters Wednesday into Thursday
due to building high pressure and lingering swells.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread rainfall of 1-3 inches is expected through Monday
night. While minor nuisance/poor drainage flooding is possible,
no significant impacts are expected with this being a long
duration rainfall and recent dry conditions.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Confidence continues increasing in widespread moderate to major
coastal flooding for the this afternoon, and moreso tonight and
possibly Monday afternoon high tide cycles along the western
Great South Bay as ENE-NE winds ramp up to marginal storm force
this afternoon into tonight. This will pose an elevated threat
to life and property. There is low potential for major coastal
flooding for Jamaica Bay with the Sunday Night and Monday
afternoon high tide cycles as well.

Elsewhere, confidence is high in areas of moderate coastal
flooding along N and E facing coastlines along Western Long
Island Sound, and twin forks of Long Island with combination of
water levels reaching marginal moderate flood levels, along
with 3-6ft breaking wave action. In addition, areas of moderate
coastal flooding expected along NY/NJ harbor, including the
tidally affected rivers of NE NJ, particularly the Hackensack
River. Coastal flood warnings are in effect for these areas.

Meanwhile, a widespread minor to locally moderate coastal flood
threat exist for southern CT where NE winds should limit wave
action and keep moderate flood impacts to localized. In
addition, scattered areas of minor to locally moderate coastal
flooding expected along low lying areas along the Hudson R
during times of high tide this aft thru Monday aft as surge if
forced up the river. A coastal flood advisory and flood advisory
has been issued respectively here.

A blend of 75th percentile Stevens, 75th percentile PETSS, and
deterministic STOFS and ETSS was used for this forecast. The
75th percentile was used in the ensemble guidance to give
credence to potentially stronger winds regimes than indicated
by the GFS forced deterministic guidances.

There still remains uncertainty on how quickly winds back from
NE to N, and/or subside on Monday aft based on ultimate track
and intensity of low pressure. If winds back to more of a
northerly direction or weaken quicker than anticipated, water
levels could be lower than currently indicated, particularly for
open water adjacent areas. Will have to re-evaluate over the
next 12-24 hrs.

Finally along the oceanfront, widespread dune base erosion and
localized overwashes are likely during the times of high tide
today thru Monday, via the combo of high stormtide and breaking
surf around 8 to 12 ft. The prolonged e to w sweep will likely
result in considerable beach erosion (escarpment) as well. 4-8
ft surf along NE facing and open water exposed areas of the twin
forks of Long Island will also likely cause minor to moderate
dune erosion.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for CTZ009>012.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for CTZ009>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for NYZ071>075-078-080-
     176>179.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT Monday for NYZ072-074-075-
     178.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for NYZ071-073-078-
     176-177.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for NYZ079-081.
     High Wind Warning until 6 PM EDT Monday for NYZ079-081.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM EDT Monday for NYZ080-179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for NJZ006-106-108.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT Monday for NJZ006-104-106-
     108.
MARINE...Storm Warning until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ331-332-340-345-350-
     353-355.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ335-338.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/DS/JT
NEAR TERM...BG/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...BG/DS/JT
HYDROLOGY...BG/DS/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...