950
FXUS61 KOKX 200234
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1034 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure remains south and east of the Long Island through
through Friday night. Over the weekend, the low begins track
slowly south and east and father out into the western Atlantic.
At the same time, high pressure noses in from the northeast and
remains in control through Tuesday. A frontal system approaches
from the west mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
No changes with this update as the forecast remains on track.

An upper level trough remains over the region tonight, with a
surface low remaining east of Long Island. This low remain
nearly stationary, with little movement, locking the region into
a persistent northeast to northerly flow.

While the forecast models have been trying to produce precipitation
over area, there has been decent mid level drying, which I expect to
continue, so will continue to trend the forecast in that
direction and follow more of a persistence based forecast.
Expect dry conditions, except for some minimal / slight chance
POPs over the eastern portions of New London CT and portions of
the Twin Forks of Long Island. Can not rule out a few rain
showers in bands wrapping around the spinning low, but this
activity has had difficulty getting further west based on latest
sat / rad trends.

Expect lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Very little change in the overall weather pattern through the short
term period with the upper trough remaining over the region and a
surface low remaining east of Long Island. One thing to note
however, is late in the period, as the surface low and upper trough
slightly shift eastward, this will allow ridging aloft to start
nosing in from the north.

Similar to the short term period, models continue to trend drier
this period. So will continue with a drier forecast with keeping
some some low POPS mainly across eastern sections of CT and Long
Island. It appears that the highest chances for any rain will remain
offshore.

The region will remain under a persistent N-NE flow.

Temperatures on Friday will be in the 70s and lower 80s. Lows Friday
night fall into the 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
**Key Points**

*Improving conditions Saturday into Sunday as high pressure builds
into the region.

*Downward temperature trend to slightly below normal temperatures
expected by early next week.

*A frontal system mid to late will bring with it additional chances
for showers.

The offshore low will still be spinning in place to start Saturday
and then slowly start to drift eastward. At the same time, high
pressure to out northeast slowly noses into our area. With the
surface ridging and some dry air moving into the area, much of the
area will remain dry on Saturday. The best chance of any showers
will be eastern Long Island and eastern CT. Given the tight pressure
gradient, a gusty northeast flow is expected. Gusts 25 to 35 mph for
eastern LI and eastern CT and mainly 20 to 25 elsewhere. Northeast
winds will begin to relax by Sunday afternoon as the low departs and
the pressure gradient weakens.

Thereafter, upper ridging begins to build in with surface high
pressure nosing in from the north. Dry conditions are generally
expected Sunday through Tuesday. A slightly cooler airmass advects
into the area for Monday and Tuesday under easterly flow and highs
in the upper 60s and low 70s.

The airmass begins to moderate somewhat on Wednesday, though still
below normal in the low 70s, with increasing cloud cover and a
chance of showers from an approaching frontal system to the west.
Guidance varies on timing, with some starting showers as early as
Tuesday night, while others keep the rain away until Thursday
morning. Overall, not expecting this to be a very impactful system,
rather just another chance for passing showers as the low passes
north with a front dragging through our area.

The NBM was primarily used for the forecast. Some adjustments were
made to low temps Sunday night across the interior as clear skies
and lightening winds may allow for some better cooling.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure remains offshore, east of Long Island through Friday.

VFR, except for KGON, where conditions should go MVFR overnight into
Friday morning, and perhaps into early Friday afternoon.

Winds will be NE and around 10 kt for most terminals, with some
occasional gusts out towards KISP for a few more hours. NE winds
pick up again with gusts resuming by 14 to 15z for most terminals
with sustained winds 10-15g17-25 kt.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Confidence remains high with wind direction into Friday. Amendments
may be needed for KEWR and KTEB for Friday where wind gusts may be
more occasional.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night: Mainly VFR, pockets of MVFR possible east.

Saturday Afternoon: VFR. MVFR east of the NYC terminals in possible
showers, but low chance of occurring. NE gusts around 15-25 kt
possible, highest gusts east.

Sunday: VFR. NE gusts 15-25 kt possible, highest gusts east.

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday..Mainly VFR, with pockets of MVFR possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisories remain up on the ocean waters through Friday
night and will likely need to be expanded in the weekend as a
persistent N-NE flow keep seas above 5 ft. SCA winds will be a
little more challenging to reach, however its likely we see some
gusts to 25 kt through parts of this time frame. For the non-ocean
waters, lesser confidence of reaching SCA conditions and thus have
cancelled any remaining non-ocean SCAs. Confidence of SCA
conditions on the non-ocean waters is just not high enough at
this time for any headlines.

6-9 ft waves and 25-30kt gusts will continue on the ocean waters
this weekend and at the start of next week. While the LI Sound and
Bays may not see 5+ ft waves, gusts near 25 kt will be possible
until Sunday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic issues through the middle of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Multiple rounds of coastal flooding are expected through this
weekend with low pressure to the southeast slowly drifting
farther out into the western Atlantic. This will result in a
building easterly swell that will help to pile water into the
area in conjunction with high astronomical tides. Northerly
winds will also develop more of an easterly component the second
half of the weekend which will contribute to the wind forcing
component of the surge.

Surge forecast is generally 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 ft with the highest
of the tides being during the morning into afternoon high tide
cycles. This results in locations adjacent to western LI Sound
and the south shore bays of western LI getting to around
moderate benchmarks Friday with widespread minor elsewhere.
Thus, there are coastal flood warnings for those moderate
locations and advisories elsewhere. There is also the potential
for another round of moderate coastal flooding Saturday morning
for southern Nassau, southern Queens, and SW Suffolk, where a
coastal flood watch in in effect. Most other locations will
likely see minor flooding continuing. The threat gradually
lessens Sunday into Monday with any moderate flooding expected
to be more localized. Astronomical levels will also be on the
downswing.

In addition, due to the building easterly swell there is a high
rip current risk through Saturday, which will likely need to be
extended into Sunday at some point.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for CTZ009.
     Coastal Flood Warning from noon to 4 PM EDT Friday for CTZ009.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 3 PM EDT Friday for
     CTZ010>012.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Warning from noon to 4 PM EDT Friday for NYZ071-
     073-177.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 3 PM EDT Friday for
     NYZ078>081.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ074-
     075.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to 1 PM EDT Friday for NYZ072-
     074-075.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Saturday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for NYZ080-178-
     179.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     afternoon for NYZ080-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from noon to 4 PM EDT Friday for NYZ176.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 9 AM to 1 PM EDT Friday for NYZ178-
     179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ006-
     106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to 1 PM EDT Friday for NJZ006-
     106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JT
NEAR TERM...JE/DW
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BC/JE/JT
HYDROLOGY...BC/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...