617
FXUS61 KOKX 301805
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
105 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system moves across the region into this evening with
high pressure building to the west late tonight. High pressure
briefly builds on Monday before quickly giving way to developing
low pressure over the southern states. A secondary coastal low
forms along the Mid Atlantic coast early Tuesday, passing just
south and east of Long Island Tuesday afternoon/evening. High
pressure largely prevails for the second half of the week with
the exception of a cold frontal passage on Thursday. Another low
pressure system may impact the area next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A frontal system to the west moves across the area through
tonight. Southerly winds increase in speed into the afternoon
with some gusts along the coast of 20-30 mph possible.

The parent low pressure system passes well to the north of the
area this afternoon and evening, allowing for a warm front to
approach and move through at least the southern and eastern
portions of the area today. This will allow for high
temperatures to rise into the upper 40s and lower 50s for Long
Island and SE Connecticut. Highs in the low to middle 40s are
expected for the Lower Hudson Valley.

While there may be some initial light snow showers for the Lower
Hudson Valley at the onset generally widespread rainfall is
expected as the cold front approaches from the west. Given that
the rainfall should be intensifying over the area into this
afternoon, eastern areas are more likely to see a steadier
rainfall into the afternoon and evening hours. Rainfall is
expected to end during the first half of the night, generally
expecting to be dry by midnight. The wind shifts W tonight and
then eventually NW allowing for CAA to drop temperatures into
the upper 20s inland to low to middle 30s for the coast tonight.

Rainfall amounts of a tenth or two for the western half of the
area and up to a half inch for the eastern areas are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Brisk NW flow on Monday will gradually decrease in intensity as
high pressure shifts overhead during the day, resulting in dry
and generally clear conditions. Temperatures will be cool
however, with highs in the upper 30s inland to the lower 40s
along the coast. The high pressure quickly shifts to the
northeast Monday night with an intensifying low pressure system
developing over the Southeast US approaching the area from the
southeast into Tuesday morning.

Precipitation is expected to begin to move into the area
Tuesday morning, possible before sunrise. Current thinking is
that initial p-type will be a light snow for areas north and
west of NYC, possibly even briefly in and around NYC. As the low
approaches from the southwest, warmer air will move into the
coastal areas, pushing the rain-snow line further north into
mid-morning. By afternoon, widespread rainfall, possibly
moderate to heavy at times, is expected along the coast.
Portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and possibly extreme
northern portions of NJ may be able to hold onto snow through at
least the early afternoon which may help in way of
accumulations, but even these areas may begin to mix with
snowfall by early to mid-afternoon.

By late afternoon into Tuesday evening, the low passes just
south and east of the area with the intensity of precip
diminishing quickly. Any precip is expected to come to and end
by midnight Wednesday with a brisk NW to N flow quickly drying
out the area. Current forecast has overall about an inch of
rainfall over the coastal areas. Orange County and the higher
elevations of Passaic County may see an accumulation of 2-5" of
snow, possibly locally higher for high elevations. 1-3" of snow
are possible for other portions of the Lower Hudson Valley with
less than an inch expected even further southwest toward the
coast.

It is worth noting that there still remains a fair amount of
uncertainty in the exact track of the low which will determine
how quickly the precipitation moves into the area and how warm
or cold the airmass will remain through the day. A slight shift
in the track north will result in lower snowfall totals as a mix
with rainfall will be more likely for even inland areas.

At this time, winds do not look to be a concern with this
system, but the exact track will determine if this will change
with a more northward track allowing the coastal areas to be
influenced by a southerly LLJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points:

* About 10 degrees below normal for high temperatures through the
  entire long term period.

* A cold front moves through Thursday bringing in a frigid
  airmass for Thursday night into Friday.

* Another low pressure system may impact the area next weekend.

High pressure builds in behind the departing low on Wednesday and
will remain in control through the rest of the week aside from a
cold frontal passage on Thursday. This is expected to be a dry
frontal passage.

Next weekend there is potential for another system to impact the
area, but at this time there is too much uncertainty for specifics
on rain/snow and stuck close to the NBM during that period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A frontal system moves across the terminals into early this
evening. High pressure briefly returns late tonight into
Monday.

Generally MVFR conditions are expected with light to moderate
rainfall. There is a low chance of brief IFR along the coast,
but not included in the forecast. Precipitation ending west to
east from around 23Z to 03Z, with conditions quickly improving
to VFR.

S/SW winds 10-15kt with gusts generally 20-25kt, which may be
more occasional. Winds shift to W around 15kt G20-25kt with the
passage of a cold front. Monday winds shift more to the NW
during the morning, and then gusts diminishing toward 18Z
Monday.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments for timing of flight categories likely into early
this evening.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday afternoon: VFR. NW G15-20kt, gusts ending by late
afternoon.

Tuesday: MVFR in rain along the coast, IFR to LIFR NW in snow,
with a transition zone of rain/snow north and northwest of the
NYC terminals, expected in the morning. Widespread IFR to LIFR
late morning into the afternoon with rain, moderate to briefly
heavy at times. LIFR to VLIFR in snow at KSWF through the
afternoon. Conditions slowly improving to VFR during the evening
from west to east as the precipitation ends. Winds SE to E
G15-20kt, becoming N by late day with G15-25kt, highest at the
coastal terminals.

Wednesday through Friday: VFR. NW G15-20kt Wednesday. W G20-30kt
Thursday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Increased S flow today will result in SCA conditions for all the
ocean waters as well as the Great South Bay, Peconic and
Gardiners Bays, and the Eastern Long Island Sound. Advisories
began at 15Z and continue through tonight. Other zones may have
an occasional gust to near small craft thresholds this
afternoon. Small craft conditions may continue into Monday
morning before falling below by midday as high pressure builds
back into the region. Winds and seas then remain below advisory
levels through Monday night.

Winds and seas increase through the day on Tuesday with the
passage of an offshore low pressure system. By the afternoon, SCA
wind gusts are likely on the ocean waters by the afternoon, and by
the evening for the non-ocean waters. There may also be a brief
period Tuesday night with gusts reaching gale criteria.
Additionally, current wind forecast has seas reaching 5 to 8 feet
for the ocean waters. It is worth noting that there is some
uncertainty given the nature of the system. A small change in
forecast track of the offshore low could cause a larger change in
forecast winds than usual.

The system pull away on Wednesday and winds and seas gradually
lower, likely falling below SCA criteria by Wednesday afternoon. The
next shot at SCA criteria will be with a cold frontal passage on
Thursday and then again next weekend with another area of low
pressure potentially impacting the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns expected through next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ332-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JT/MW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JT/MW
HYDROLOGY...JT/MW