739
FXUS61 KOKX 111824
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
224 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered just offshore in the Western Atlantic
early this week. A cold front gradually approaches on Wednesday and
moves through sometime Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
High pressure briefly returns Friday into Saturday before another
cold front passes through Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The area remains under mid-level ridging with a surface high
pressure positioned to the southeast of the area off of the Mid-
Atlantic coast.

This high pressure will allow dry and generally clear conditions to
persist over the next 36-48 hours. Clear skies tonight with a
lessening wind should allow some interior spots to radiationally
cool into the low to middle 60s, assuming the light SW flow
becomes calm. Temperatures along the coast may remain in the
upper 60s to near 70. Given the amount of cooling expected
tonight, the development of patchy fog is possible, especially
for the extreme NW portions of the area where valley fog may
form and the eastern coastal areas where low stratus may form.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains in control through Tuesday with once again
mostly sunny skies expected outside of any morning fog or low
stratus. Temperatures are expected to rise into the middle to upper
80s for much of the area with some warmer spots rising into the low
90s.

An increasing S/SW flow into the afternoon will allow for a
subtle increase in dew points which will make for a more muggy
feel to the air than much of the last week. The additional
moisture will also make the heat index values rise into the low
90s for much of the area. Low temperatures Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning will be slightly warmer than previous nights
with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. More widespread fog or
low stratus will be possible as well once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure well offshore continues to push east and weaken as a
slow moving cold front gradually approaches from the northwest on
Wednesday. The S/SW flow out ahead of the front will bring an
increase in heat and moisture to the area. The NBM was followed for
temperatures, but blended in some drier dewpoints to account for
some daytime mixing. This combination resulted in widespread 95 to
99 degree Heat Index values everywhere except eastern Long Island
and eastern CT. As of right now these Heat Index values are only
widespread for 1 day, so Heat Advisory criteria is not being met.
While some northeast NJ, NYC and Long Island locations will see 95
to 96 degree Heat Index values again on Thursday, conditions are too
marginal and confidence is too low to issue any Advisory at this
time.

With the cold front/pre-frontal trough moving into the hot and humid
airmass, there is a threat for showers and thunderstorms, mainly
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. As of right now severe
thunderstorms are not expected. While instability is decent (upwards
of 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE), shear appears to be weak (mainly below 20kt
0-6km bulk shear) along with lack of mid and upper level forcing.
However, it is worth noting that the CSU MLP has western portions of
the area in a 15 to 30% risk of damaging winds.

Behind the cold front we dry out as brief high pressure builds in.
Dry conditions likely continue through Sunday before another cold
front brings chances for showers and thunderstorms. Also expect a
gradual warm up through Sunday, with Heat Index values back at 95 to
99 on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR with high pressure in control.

S-SW winds around 10 kt this afternoon, a little stronger at some of
the coastal terminals (KJFK/KLGA/KBDR/KGON), should start weakening
towards sunset and become light SW or light/variable overnight. KEWR
should have more of a SSE harbor breeze this afternoon. Winds again
become S-SW around or just over 10 kt in the afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday afternoon and night: VFR.

Wednesday: Chance of late day/evening showers/tstms with MVFR or
lower cond. Chance of showers late at night.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm.

Thursday night through Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
With a weak pressure gradient in place, winds and seas are expected
to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria through the
week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no significant hydrological concerns through the week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate rip current risk is in place today and Tuesday along
ocean beaches due to persistent E-ESE swells with around 3 ft waves
and a 7 to 9 second period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JT/MW
HYDROLOGY...JT/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...