983
FXUS61 KOKX 062350
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
650 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure gradually departs to the northeast tonight. A weakening
low pressure system and cold front over the mid-West approaches
and moves through Friday night into Saturday morning, followed by
high pressure through midweek. Another frontal system
approaches by week`s end.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The forecast remains on track this evening with only minor
updates. Bumped up winds across the western half of the area as
gusts have already exceeded 30kts, with KEWR at 34kts, KISP at
32kts and KHPN at 31kts. Any remaining shower activity has
largely pushed east of the area, though cannot rule out a
sprinkle across southern CT over the next few hours. Previous
discussion follows.

Some lingering showers expected across eastern areas this evening as
surface trough pushes off the coast. More in the way in of clouds to
start, but clearing expected late tonight. Colder air moves in
tonight on a northwesterly flow, with lows in the upper 20s to lower
30s.

The pressure gradient tightens tonight as low pressure gradually
exits to the northeast. The area stays well mixed, with winds
increasing aloft. NAM and GFS BUFKIT soundings show mixing up to at
least 850mb for an extended period of time, with 50+ kt at this
level. HREF mean also shows deep mixing, with multiple hours tonight
showing 40+ kt max momentum transfer and 50+ kt on Friday, with
widespread 40 kt gusts expected. Isolated gusts 45 to 50 kt can not
be ruled out. A Wind Advisory continues for the entire forecast
area from 6 PM this evening through Friday afternoon.

Highs on Friday will be slightly above normal for this time of year,
in the middle 40s to near 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Winds diminish somewhat Friday night. A weakening low pressure
system over the mid-West approaches Friday night. With zonal flow
aloft, expect much of any precipitation to associated with this
low, which weakens into a surface trough by the time it moves
through the forecast area, to pass to the south. However, there
is a slight chance for snow showers across northeast NJ, NYC,
and Long Island associated with this feature. No accumulation is
expected. Lows will be in the middle 20s to middle 30s across
the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
**Key Points**

* Mainly dry weather through the the middle of next week. Windy
  conditions will continue on Saturday into Sunday.

* A gradual warmup from near normal temperatures this weekend to
  above normal temperatures through midweek.

The global models and their respective ensembles are in decent
agreement with the pattern into next week. Thus, the NBM was
followed closely for this update with adjustments to the winds/gusts
on Saturday into Sunday.

The region lies on the southern edge of longwave trough centered
over eastern Canada to start the period. A series of weak shortwaves
moves through the flow and over the local area into early next week
with little fanfare. The flow then deamplifies, becoming more zonal
through next Thursday.

At the surface, northwest flow continues Saturday and Sunday. The
pressure gradient remains rather tight into Saturday evening, with
model soundings indicating a well-mixed boundary layer. Thus, winds
look to remain gusty Saturday into early Sunday, though shy of
advisory criteria. Have bumped up winds in collaboration with
neighboring offices from the NBM with this update, effectively near
the 75th percentile.

High pressure then builds in from the southwest on Sunday into
Wednesday, enhancing southerly flow and warm air advection. 850mb
temperatures max out at about 5-7C on Wednesday and again on
Thursday, with 50s and low to mid 60s likely at the surface; warmest
temperatures away from the coasts. The warmest day next week looks
to be Wednesday, under westerly flow, with some uncertainty in the
timing of a frontal passage on Thursday and a more southerly wind
component. NBM IQRs (75th-25th percentiles) for mid next week are in
the 10-15 degree range, indicating the sensitivity of the afternoon
highs to the surface flow. Nonetheless, above normal temperatures
look likely Monday - Thursday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure slowly builds back into the area through Friday.

VFR.

Gusts will continue to ramp up in WNW flow, increasing to
30-40kt tonight. Expect some gusts over 40kt later tonight and
into the first half of Friday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments may be needed around the magnitude of wind gusts, with
some uncertainly around maximum gusts late tonight into the first
half of Friday.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday NIGHT: VFR. W winds gust around 20kt.

Saturday: VFR with W winds G15-20kt possible.

Sunday - Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, SW-S winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gale conditions for all waters this evening through Friday with
40 to 45 kt W/NW gusts.

There will be a lull in gusts Friday night, with 5+ foot seas
continuing on the ocean.

Gusty northwest winds return on Saturday afternoon into Sunday, but
look to be shy of gale conditions attm. Have left mention out of the
HWO with low confidence, even over ocean zones. Waves may approach
SCA conditions Saturday night into early Sunday for the eastern
ocean zones and taper by Sunday evening. Thereafter, sub-SCA
conditions are expected across all waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Although the area saw 1-2 inches of rain on Wednesday, windy and dry
conditions Friday and Saturday will allow for an increased risk in
fire spread. Both days will see min RH values around 30 percent.
Gusts on Friday are expected to reach 45 to 50 mph, with gusts on
Saturday around 30 to 35 mph. However, in coordination with
fire partners, no products are expected at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for NYZ067>075-078>081-
     176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/DBR
NEAR TERM...JP/DBR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JP/DBR
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JP/DBR