744
FXUS61 KOKX 010552
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1252 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pass through overnight, followed by high
pressure building from the west today. The high will retreat
offshore tonight as low pressure develops over the southern
states. A secondary coastal low forms along the Mid Atlantic
coast early Tuesday, passing south and east of Long Island
Tuesday afternoon and evening. High pressure largely prevails
for the second half of the week with the exception of a cold
frontal passage on Thursday. Another low pressure system may
impact the area next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A high overcast remains across Long Island and SE CT.
Mostly clear skies NW of there will spread east overnight.

Winds have switched to more of a W direction and will gradually
veer to WNW, then more to the NW toward daybreak. Low temps in
the lower/mid 30s by daybreak are close to normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Winter Storm Watch in effect for Orange County on Tuesday as
  coastal storm brings an accumulating snow to portions of the
  interior, and mainly rain at the coast.

High pressure builds in from the west through this evening
with diminishing NW winds and clear skies. Highs will top out in
the upper 30s/lower 40s.

The focus then shifts to a winter storm that is likely to bring
part of the area its first accumulating snowfall of the season.
Southern branch shortwave energy tracking across the central
Plains and into the Mid Mississippi Valley today will link up
with low pressure over Gulf of Mexico. The latter of which
tracks NE across the Southeast tonight and then begins to
deepen more quickly along the Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday
morning. The deepening coastal low will take a track to the
south and east of Long Island Tuesday afternoon and evening,
passing in close vicinity to the 40N/70W benchmark. The 30/12Z
ECMWF continued to track to the southeast of the benchmark as
does the EPS and GEFS. The other 30/12Z operationals, NAM12 and
Canadian are still inside to the NW with warmer solutions.
However, solutions are converging and even though the ECMWF is
farthest SE, there is quite a bit of troughing to the NE of the
low track. Subtle shifts in the low track will be critical to
vertical temperature profiles and how far inland the rain/snow
line gets. Differences in the low track seem to be hinging on
the interaction with a northern branch shortwave dropping across
the Midwest and Great Lakes during this time.The system is
progressive with no blocking over the north Atlantic, which is
the same reason high pressure quickly retreats away from the
Northeast along with the cold air supply. Thus, the airmass is
only marginally cold enough for inland locations to receive a
snowfall with coastal locations likely to be all rain (possible
mix at the onset).

Precipitation will develop from west to east Tuesday morning
with coastal locations possibly seeing a brief mix. Rain/snow
line will lift northwest across the interior with the only
locations expected to be mainly snow will be north and west of
I-84 in Orange County NY. This of course can change with even
subtle shifts in track. Coastal locations will see little if any
accumulation, with as much as 4-7 inches possible across Orange
County NY, especially the higher elevations. This area has been
placed under a Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday. Some locations
in the inland transition zone could see 2-5 inches, which is
advisory level. However, confidence is too low at this time for
the issuance of an advisory. Liquid equivalent amounts come to
just under an inch well northwest across upper portions of the
Lower Hudson Valley to as much as an 1.5 inches across far
eastern Long Island.

NBM probabilities have increased to around 50 percent for
meeting warning criteria (6+ inches) across western Passaic,
Orange, and Putnam counties. For advisory level (3-5 inches),
there is 50-70 percent probability for Northern Fairfield CT,
central/northern Putnam and Westchester NY, and western Passaic
NJ.

Surface temperatures will also be marginal with highs in the
lower/mid 30s inland. However, in the watch area where snowfall
rates of 1-2 inches/hour are possible, snow will be able to
cover roadways. Coastal locations will get up into the 40s.
Refreezing of any standing water is likely Tuesday night as much
of the area drops below freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points:

* High temperatures will run 10+ degrees below normal.

* A cold front moving through on Thursday will bring in a
  frigid air mass for Thursday night into Friday.

* Another low pressure system may impact the area next weekend.

High pressure builds in behind the departing low on Wednesday and
will be followed by a cold frontal passage on Thursday. This is
expected to be a dry frontal passage. A cold air mass then
builds in and could bring lows as low as the single digits to
parts of the interior.

Next weekend there is potential for another system to impact the
area, but at this time there is too much uncertainty for
specifics on rain/snow and stuck close to the NBM during that
period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR as a cold front moves east of the terminals overnight,
followed by high pressure building from the west today.

W winds take hold initially, with gusts mainly around 15-25 kt
after cold fropa. Gusts will drop off at some terminals before
resuming by 13Z-14Z. Winds gradually veer to the NW late in the
overnight and into the morning push. Today winds will gust out
of the NW, more so from 13Z-14Z to 18Z, with gusts ending toward
19Z. Winds then become light and more northerly toward the
evening push.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be more occasional than frequent before 13Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Late tonight: Mainly VFR. Low chance of MVFR ceilings just
before daybreak.

Tuesday: MVFR in rain along the coast, IFR/LIFR NW in snow,
with a transition zone of rain/snow NW of the NYC metro
terminals expected in the morning. Widespread IFR/LIFR late
morning into the afternoon with rain, moderate to briefly
heavy at times. LIFR/VLIFR in snow at KSWF through the
afternoon. Conditions slowly improving to VFR during the
evening from west to east as precipitation ends. Winds SE-E
G15-20kt, becoming N by late day with G15-25kt, highest at the
coastal terminals.

Wednesday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt

Thursday: VFR. W winds G20-30kt.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions both ahead of and following a cold frontal
passage will produce SCA conditions into the early morning for
far eastern Long Island Sound and the eastern/south shore bays
of Long Island, and through the morning on the ocean. Winds and
seas will lower as high pressure builds in the west today.

Winds and seas increase through the day on Tuesday with the
passage of an offshore low pressure system. SCA wind gusts are
likely on the ocean waters by the afternoon, and by the evening
for the non-ocean waters. There may also be a brief period
Tuesday night with gusts reaching gale criteria. Additionally,
current wind forecast has seas reaching 5-9 ft for the ocean
waters. It is worth noting that there is some uncertainty given
the nature of the system. A small change in forecast track of
the offshore low could cause a larger change in forecast winds
than usual.

The system pulls away on Wednesday and winds and seas gradually
lower. SCA seas may linger on the ocean waters through the day
Wednesday. The next shot at SCA criteria will be with a cold
frontal passage on Thursday and then again next weekend with
another area of low pressure potentially impacting the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Much of the area should not have problems with the potential of
1-2 inches of liquid equivalent on Tuesday. Minor nuisance and
poor drainage flooding is possible, especially with snow melt
and clogged drains.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Tuesday evening
     for NYZ067.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ332-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...BG/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JE/BG
MARINE...DW
HYDROLOGY...DW