088
FXUS61 KOKX 120957
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
557 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure overhead today will shift offshore tonight. A broad
area of low pressure will then impact the area through the end of
the week. A frontal system impacts the area for the end of the
week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to account
for the latest temperature and trends into the afternoon. Ideal
radiational cooling has resulting in outlying areas cooling off
into the 30s in some spots. This should quickly rebound with
surface heating over the next few hours.

High pressure overhead today will result in fairly clear skies and
dry conditions. As the center of the high moves offshore to the
east, a light return flow out of the south will allow low level
moisture to increase. THis southerly flow off the relatively cool
ocean will also prevent high temperatures today along the coast from
rising above the upper 60s to low 70s. Interior areas that aren`t
influences by the flow off of the ocean will see highs in the middle
to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High clouds begin to move into the area tonight with the approach of
a broad surface low from the southwest.  This weak, slow moving
surface low is being forced by a mid-level cut-off low that is
slowly becoming reintroduced to the mean flow. This will allow much
of the middle of the week to experience showery conditions.

Increasing clouds and moisture tonight will prevent temperatures
from falling too much with lows in the 50s to near 60 in the NYC
metro. Much of the first half of the night should be dry but the
chance of showers increases a bit for the western portion of the
area after 2-4AM. Showers should remain light in intensity. The
eastward progression of this band of scattered showers remains a bit
uncertain as the showers will be running into the drier airmass from
the high pressure still sitting offshore.

This general pattern continues during the day on Tuesday and Tuesday
night with the best chance for showers being the western portions of
the area with eastern areas possibly remaining mostly dry during
this timeframe. Overcast skies will prevent temperatures from rising
too much Tuesday with highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s for the
northeasternmost areas.

As the low continues to move toward the area late Tuesday night and
Wednesday, the chance of showers expands eastward with increasing
southerly flow increasing the low level moisture across the area.
Highs Wednesday will only be in the middle to upper 60s. By
Wednesday night, showers should overtake much of the area. There may
be enough elevated instability to result in some isolated
thunderstorms.

Rainfall totals over this timeframe should be anywhere from 0.25" to
0.75" with the highest amounts more likely in the western portion of
the CWA. No hydrologic or flooding concerns are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Unsettled for the long term, though no day seems to be a complete
washout.

Weak surface low and upper level trough will affect the
forecast area on Thursday, pushing offshore Thursday night. This
will be followed by weak upper level ridging into Friday night as a
warm front approaches at the surface during the day. The warm front
lifts north late Friday into Friday night, leaving the area warm
sectored for Saturday. The associated cold front approaches and
moves through Saturday night, with a secondary cold front/surface
trough moving through Sunday.

It becomes more unstable on Thursday with rising temps and the upper
trough moving over the area. This should support initiation, so some
showers and thunderstorms possible especially in the afternoon and
evenings.

As the upper low associated with the frontal system impacting the
forecast area at the end of the week into the weekend slowly treks
east over southeastern Canada, the flow will become more westerly
aloft, and temperatures begin to surge towards 80 on Friday,
especially W of the Hudson. There could be another round of showers
and thunderstorms with energy embedded in the flow, but confidence
is low this far out.

Another warm day on Saturday with the area warm sectored. It should
be a few degrees warmer than Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR as high pressure remains in control.

Light N to E flow, 5 kt or less through daybreak today. Winds become
SE-S winds around 10 kt or this morning into the afternoon.
Increasing cloud cover through the period, but cigs remain VFR.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shifts may be off by an hour or two.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tonight: VFR. Low chance of MVFR developing by daybreak Tuesday.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower and showers possible, mainly NYC terminals
and west.

Tuesday night: Low stratus/fog with IFR cond possible especially
near the coast at KJFK/KISP/KHPN/KBDR/KGON, otherwise MVFR cond
expected. Chance of showers.

Wednesday and Thursday: MVFR cond expected, IFR or lower cond
possible at times. Showers likely. E-SE winds G20kt possible on Wed.

Friday: Mainly VFR, chance of MVFR and showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters through Tuesday night.
The pressure gradient increases with a low pressure building into
the area from the southwest on Wednesday. This will result in gust
near 25 kt on the ocean as well as wave heights near 5-7 feet. SCA
conditions likely linger on the ocean through Thursday before
subsiding Thursday night. Thereafter, winds and waves should
remain below SCA criteria due to lack of any strong pressure
gradient across the waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JP/MW
HYDROLOGY...JP/MW