334
FXUS61 KOKX 261959
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
359 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves across the region by early this evening.
Meanwhile low pressure remain nearly stationary over Maine
tonight. High pressure then builds in from the west Sunday
through Sunday night, and then across the area on Monday. The
high pushes off the Mid- Atlantic Coast Monday night into
Tuesday, giving way to an approaching frontal system that moves
across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. High
pressure briefly return returns Wednesday night into Thursday
before another frontal system impacts the area for the end of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A strong cold front was moving through eastern Pennsylvania at
19Z as the associated low was moving through Northern New
England and into Maine. Most of the shower and isolated
thunderstorm activity was across NYC and east in association of
upper energy and forcing. While just ahead of the front the
upper trough was beginning to approach the area. Showers may
become a little more widespread, however, thunderstorms are
expected to remain isolated as surface and mixed layer CAPE have
peaked and are forecast to diminish into the early evening with
the frontal passage. And while a storm may produce briefly
higher wind gusts severe weather is not expected. While the
chances of thunderstorms diminish across the marine influenced
land, have kept a mention of isolated thunderstorms into this
evening, with storms for likely over the ocean waters. The cold
front is expected to be east of the region by 03Z with an end to
the precipitation. With the cold front passage breaks in the
clouds are likely, with rapid drying aloft, with scattered to a
few strato cu remaining through tonight. Late tonight winds and
gusts increase and blended in the higher NBM 90th percentile.
Lows will be near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A gusty cyclonic flow will persist through the day Sunday as a
the upper and surface lows remains over Maine and a upper ridge
and surface high remain to the west. Once again blended in the
higher 90th percentile NBM along with the bias corrected
CONSALL for gusts Sunday afternoon, and the 90th NBM for
sustained winds. During the peak mixing Sunday afternoon a few
sustained winds and occasional gusts will be near advisory
levels, however, with only a few reports expected have not
issued a winds advisory. The upper low and upper ridge begin to
track east late Sunday and into Sunday night, and with the loss
of peak mixing winds and gusts will be rather quickly
diminishing into Sunday evening. Temperatures Sunday and Sunday
night will be near seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Global models and their ensembles are in relatively good
agreement through the period with some frontal timing issues, in
particular at the end of next week. Operational GFS is fastest
again, similar to what we saw leading up to the most recent
frontal system. Thus, stayed close to NBM guidance with minor
adjustments to known biases.

An anomalously strong upper ridge (+1-2SD) from the mid section
of the country to the eastern seaboard at the start of the
forecast period will translate east through Tuesday. Southern
branch energy lifting along the backside of the ridge will link
up with a digging northern branch across central Canada, sending
a frontal system over top of the ridge. Warm front lifts across
the area late Tuesday, followed by a cold frontal passage
Wednesday morning. The latter of which looks uneventful with
weak forcing and little moisture. High pressure then briefly
follows Wednesday night into the first half of Thursday before
the front lifts north as a warm front late Thursday, followed by
a cold frontal passage Friday night. Once again, GFS is on the
faster side of the operational envelope. So the consenus
approach works best at this time. This is the stronger of the
systems with a good chance of showers, possibly thunder. The
latter of which will send the warm upper ridge out into the
western Atlantic at the end of the week.

As for temperatures, they will be above normal through the mid
week, with Tuesday being the warmest. Highs will be 75-80 away
from the coast, and 60s along the coast. Temperatures fall back
to seasonable on Thursday, with 60s expected region-wide, with
warmer readings expected for Friday ahead of the next frontal
system. NBM box and whisker plots show very little spread
through Tuesday, but then larger spreads mid week on with some
frontal timing issues. Tuesday could be warmer, but a subsidence
inversion looks to limit the full potential at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front moves through this evening.

Variety of flight categories this afternoon. VFR in the NYC metro
should drop back down to MVFR or IFR ahead of the cold frontal
passage this evening. Otherwise, most other terminals are MVFR or
lower and should remain until the frontal passage from 00-3Z. SHRA
throughout the afternoon. Some TSRA remains possible through the
evening, but confidence too low to including in the prevailing or
tempo groups so left a PROB30 for this chance.

Improving to VFR behind the frontal passage this evening. S/SW winds
with occasional gusts 20-25kt through this evening shift to the W
and then NW tonight while increasing in strength. Gusts tonight
increase 25-30kt. By Sunday, some gusts upwards of 35kt possible.
Isolated MVFR cigs possible for some outlying terminals on Sunday,
but mainly VFR is expected.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely through this evening for changing categories and
any TSRA development. Improvement back to MVFR and VFR may be off by
1-2 hours.

Gusts may be only occasional before the frontal passage this evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 20Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday: VFR. NW wind gusts 25-30 kt. Some gusts to 35kt possible.
Wind gusts lower to near 20 kt in the evening and diminish overnight.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR at night with possible showers.
SW wind gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon at night. Wind gusts up to
25 kt possible at times for afternoon into evening.

Wednesday: VFR. W-NW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Thursday: MVFR possible in SHRA.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
With a strong and gusty SW flow ahead of an approaching cold
front gusts have been at or above 25 kt across the forecast
waters, and have kept the advisory as issued. As the cold front
moves through, and an hour or two after passage, gusts likely
drop off below advisory levels, then will increase in the
northwest flow behind the front later tonight, as cold advection
increases. Winds will remain at or near 25 kt on the non ocean
waters into Sunday evening and extended the advisory until 1000
PM EDT. And for the ocean waters both gusts and seas will remain
at advisory into late Sunday night, and extended the advisory
until 300 AM EDT. However, conditions may be improving earlier
across the western ocean waters.

High pressure building over the waters early next week will
result in below SCA levels through Tuesday. Wind gusts around 25
kt are possible over the ocean and south shore bays Tuesday
night with the approach and passage of a cold front. Waves build
to 4 to 7 ft on the ocean waters during this time frame. Waves
slowly diminish late Tuesday night, falling below SCA criteria
on Wednesday. High pressure then briefly follows into Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW