031
FXUS61 KOKX 070939
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
439 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak sfc trough will move into the area this morning, followed
by a cold frontal passage early this afternoon. High pressure
will the briefly nose in from the west in its wake later today,
then weaken tonight with the approach of another cold front
which should move through on Friday. Strong Canadian high
pressure will build in its wake Friday night into Saturday, then
move offshore on Sunday, with a frontal system passing through
Sunday night into Monday. High pressure will then build in
through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Bkn high clouds over the area will shift to the SE after
daybreak as a weak trough moves through. The trough is more of
a dry line and subtle wind shift to the WNW ahead of the the
actual cold front, which should be preceded by sct-bkn Cu late
this morning and around midday before moving through with with
a more decided wind shift to the NW and an increase in speeds,
with gusts 20-25 mph.

Temps still look to be unseasonably warm today given sunshine,
deep mixing and downslope flow, though not quite as warm as
yesterday except across coastal CT and Long Island given the
wind shift from SW off the water yesterday. High temps should
reach the upper 70s in NE NJ, mid 70s most elsewhere, and the
lower 70s well inland, a couple degrees above the warmest MOS
guidance as was the case yesterday. These temps will be a couple
of degrees shy of record highs at Newark, Central Park, and
LaGuardia.

Most of the cold air advection should take place this evening
before NW flow backs W overnight. With CAA, clear skies and
diminishing winds there will be some radiational cooling as
well. Low temps will range from the upper 30s well inland to
near 50 in NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
One last mild day expected on Fri, with highs mostly 65-70, and
a gusty W flow before another dry cold front moves through from
the north Fri evening, and Canadian high pressure builds in for
the weekend. Temps Fri night should bottom out from the mid 30s
to mid 40s, and daytime temps on Sat will be noticeably cooler,
with highs only in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Points:

* Above average temperatures expected late Sunday and Monday,
  then back to normal for the middle of next week.

* Widespread light rain likely late Sunday into Monday as a
  frontal system moves through.

Surface high pressure with upper level ridging will be in place
over the area on Saturday which will gradually shift offshore
into Sunday. A potent shortwave trough moves across the Upper
Midwest and into the Great Lakes region on Sunday which will
allow for a surface frontal system to impact the area late
Sunday and through much of the day on Monday. Widespread light
rainfall is expected Sunday late afternoon through the first
half of Monday. Additionally, a persistent SW flow will allow
temperatures to be above average both Sunday and particularly
Monday with highs Monday in the middle to upper 60s.

The cold front pushes through Monday night with a shifting NW
flow eventually drying out the airmass and ushering in more
seasonable air. The general thinking is that high pressure
gradually reestablishes itself by midweek with large-scale upper
level ridging. Another frontal system may approach the area by
late in the week, but timing and placement differences are too
large among global models to have any certainty in the forecast
at this range.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front moves across the terminals this morning.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Only
exception would be this morning with potential for MVFR stratus
near 3 kft, from 12-17Z. Current TAFs have stratus ceilings
higher, near 3.5 to 4 kft, keeping VFR conditions with higher
ceilings in the mid to late afternoon.

Wind speeds near 5-10 kts into the morning push. Winds increase
to 10-12 kt this morning with gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon
before diminishing to less than 10 kt tonight. Wind direction
more westerly this morning becoming NW. Wind direction becomes
more variable Thursday night, generally going from NW to more
westerly.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

Low chance for MVFR stratus this morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 09Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday: VFR. W winds G15-20 kt in the morning, G20-25 kt in the
afternoon, gusts close to 20 kt at night.

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: Mainly VFR for the morning, then a chance of MVFR or
lower in rain showers for the afternoon, becoming likely at
night.

Monday: MVFR becoming VFR. Rain showers probable to likely in
the morning, tapering off in the afternoon. SW-W winds G15-20
kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
No advy for the near term. That said, a few gusts just shy of
25 kt are likely on the near shore waters this afternoon after a
cold frontal passage.

SCA cond should take place Fri as W flow increases in the
afternoon ahead of another cold frontal passage and shifts NW
at night, with gusts up to 25 kt on most if not all waters, and
ocean seas building to 5-6 ft mainly out east.

Strengthening SW flow Sunday night into Mon may produce SCA
conditions on the ocean waters, with seas 5-7 feet and gusts
near 25 kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
For today, min RH will be lower than originally anticipated,
30-35% inland and 35-40% closer to the coast. This plus NW
winds gusting to 20-25 mph and very dry fine fuels will once
again lead to elevated fire growth potential. SPS was issued
for S CT.

For Friday, conditions remain similar if not worse, with min RH
25-35% and W winds gusting up to 25 mph. A Red Flag Warning may
be needed.

For Saturday, min RH 20-30% and NW winds gusting to 20 mph
expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through mid next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/MW
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...JM/MW
MARINE...BG/MW
FIRE WEATHER...BG
HYDROLOGY...BG/MW