429
FXUS61 KOKX 150918
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
418 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes to the south today as high pressure builds in
from the west for the weekend and low pressure near the Canadian
Maritimes weakens and heads out to sea. A cold front moves
through on Monday, with weak high pressure building in
thereafter. A complex frontal system then likely impacts the
area towards late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Low pressure rapidly deepens tracking away from the Mid Atlantic
coast today, while low pressure approaching the Canadian Maritimes
also continues to deepen. This will result in a strengthening NW
flow (gusts up to 20 mph) and very dry conditions. Min RH values are
forecast to be in the 20 to 40 percent range. See fire weather
section below for fire weather threat.

Expect highs in the middle to upper 50s today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure near the Canadian Maritimes begins to weaken tonight,
while high pressure builds in from the west. NW winds for Saturday
look to be a bit stronger with gusts up to 30 mph expected.
Temperatures will be in the upper 50s to around 60 on Saturday,
which is about 5 degrees above normal. Slightly warmer temperatures
on Sunday, with highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Lows Saturday
morning will generally be in the lower to mid 30s inland, to around
40 at the coast. Lower 40s are expected in and around NYC.

Winds remain elevated tonight to preclude frost. Better radiational
cooling conditions for Saturday night into Sunday morning for the
interior, and thus frost is expected north and west of the city.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front passes through during Monday with limited moisture.
Can`t rule out a morning shower mainly north of the city. Clearing
behind the front with above-normal high temperatures on a
downsloping NW-WNW flow. Went a couple degrees above deterministic
NBM as it has been a little too low with the past couple of
instances with this setup.

High pressure otherwise keeps us dry through probably at least the
daytime hours of Wednesday, but left in a slight chance of afternoon
showers for some of the western zones with uncertainty over timing
of the next storm system to impact the area. A fairly broad area of
low pressure to our south and west heads our way Wednesday night
into Thursday. Better model agreement regarding the track and timing
of this storm with the 00z model run, but still capped PoPs at 40
percent Weds night through Thurs night for the time being as this is
still several days away. A needed widespread rainfall is
nevertheless appearing to be more likely. High temperatures for
Tuesday through Thursday a little above normal at mostly 55-60.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region today as a strong coastal low
shift into the Canadian Maritimes.

VFR N winds backing to NW by the end of the morning push. Speeds
increasing to 10-15G20KT this afternoon. Gusts subside after 00Z for
some terminals this evening, but the NW flow remains.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts might be only occasional, especially at night.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Late tonight - Saturday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt aft 12Z Sat.

Sunday...VFR.

Monday...VFR with strong NW flow.

Tuesday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions continue through tonight with NW winds
increasing tonight into Saturday morning. Gusts of 25 to 30 kt are
expected across all waters and SCA has been issued for all waters
for Saturday. With high pressure building in Saturday night, winds
diminish, and non-ocean waters will see wind drop below 25 kt early
Saturday night, while the ocean zones are expected to fall below 25
kt a few hours later.

An easterly swell will keep seas on the ocean 3 to 4 ft, however
occasional 5 ft seas are possible, especially for the outer waters
of the ocean zones.

Winds and waves look to remain below SCA criteria Saturday
night through the middle of next week for the most part.

There is potential for some 25 kt gusts over the
ocean waters with a cold frontal passage on Monday. A frontal
system may then bring SCA conditions sometime mid to late next
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions will continue through Saturday along with gusty
NW winds. In fact, min RH values today are expected to be 20% to
40%, and Saturday will be 20% to around 30%. NW winds also
strengthen during this time with gusts up to 30 mph possible on
Saturday. In collaboration with state land managers and
adjacent WFOs, have issued a Red Flag Warning for CT on Friday,
with a Fire Weather Watch for the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ,
NYC, and LI for Saturday. All other times will be covered by an
SPS. Minimum relative humidity values will remain low on
Sunday, around 30 percent. However, winds will only be around 5
to 10 mph out of the NW/W.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate to severe drought conditions exist across the area per
the latest US Drought Monitor. Stream flows are generally below
the 25th percentile of normal for this time of year. There are
no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With an upcoming full moon today, water levels will be on the
rise. Tidal departures needed for minor flooding will be as
little as a couple of tenths to 1/2 ft by today and Saturday.

Offshore low pressure combined with high pressure over the Northeast
coast will help maintain a 3-4 ft long period E swell. This should
continue cause minor coastal flooding during the morning high tides
today and Saturday, and probably on Sunday for a few areas. Flooding
could be moderate in spots along the south shores of Nassau and
Queens this morning and potentially Saturday morning as well.

Most of the coastline is remains a coastal flood advisory through
this morning`s high tide cycle, with widespread inundation of 1/2 to
1 ft above minor flood thresholds (1.5 to 2.5 ft above MHHW)
expected. Flooding along the SE CT coastline, on the north fork of
Long Island and in Peconic Bay, also also the more sheltered Great
South Bay locations of Suffolk, looks to be only spotty, with
inundation mostly below minor thresholds but still 1 to 2 ft above
MHHW, so limited to the most vulnerable spots right along the
shoreline. A statement remains posted for these zones for this
morning, and it looks like levels will fall short for Saturday
morning`s high tide cycle, thus no extension of the statement.

Extended advisories where confidence is highest for another round of
widespread minor flooding during the Saturday morning high tide
cycle. This includes the south shore back bays of Nassau/Queens as
well as along Jamaica Bay, Lower NY Harbor, and Southern Fairfield
County. For other all other zones under an advisory this morning,
confidence was not high enough to extend the advisory given the
latest guidance. Statements for localized minor flooding touching
benchmarks may still be needed for these zones.

Additional minor flooding still appears likely for some areas Sunday
morning and still possible on Monday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EST Saturday for CTZ009.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     CTZ010.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     afternoon for NYZ211>213.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ072-
     081.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for NYZ074-075-
     178-179.
NJ...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     afternoon for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NJZ006-
     106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/JP
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...