382
FXUS61 KOKX 131316
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
916 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Secondary low pressure off the Delmarva pivots northwestward closer
to the coast this morning as high pressure over eastern Canada
gradually weakens. Low pressure starts to depart the area tonight,
with a cold frontal passage following early Wednesday. High
pressure builds in from the west thereafter and then settles over
the region Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* A coastal storm will continue to impact the area bringing
  significant coastal flooding, strong winds and a long
  duration moderate to locally heavy rainfall.

* Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect for most of the coastline,
  with widespread moderate flooding expected and locally major
  flooding for southern Nassau/SW Suffolk. Advisories remain in
  effect for the CT coastline for minor flooding. Widespread beach
  erosion and localized overwashes are also expected along the
  oceanfront. See the Tides/Coastal Flooding section for more
  details.

* Wind headlines have been cancelled given the current trends.
  The Wind Advisory has been cancelled. Strong and gusty
  northeast winds will continue into early this afternoon, and
  gradually diminish late in the day and into this evening.
  Sustained winds and gusts are no longer expected to reach Wind
  Advisory criteria, therefore, the Wind Advisory has been
  cancelled.

* Moderate to locally heavy rainfall expected into this
  afternoon. Additional rainfall of 1-2 inches expected for
  eastern CT/Long Island, with lesser amts of 0.5-1 inches from
  the NYC metro area north/west. Minor nuisance/poor drainage
  flooding is possible in typically flood prone areas.

The northern and southern stream will continue to phase this
morning. The guidance is finally on the same page with the
formation of a secondary low off of the Delmarva and northeast
of the main low off the Carolina coast. This secondary low will
track northwestward closer to the coast this morning and tighten
the pressure gradient over our area with the help of a 1030 mb
high in eastern Canada. Observed winds have been running below
forecast winds for several hours now and since we are likely
past the peak winds have adjusted wind headlines.

The highest will be through this morning and then gradually
lower through the day as both the secondary low and eastern
Canadian high weaken. Rain will remain steady and light to
moderate through the day. Some isolated heavier pockets of rain
are possible, mainly this afternoon as CAMs show some convective
activity. Confidence in thunder is low, but have kept slight
chance in the forecast as it can not be completely ruled out
with some elevated instability. Rain tapers from west to east
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure drifts farther offshore on Tuesday, but broadens.
At the same time, large high pressure approaches from the west.
This places the area in a relatively tight pressure gradient for
several days. Expect breezy N/NW conditions through the short
term.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Mainly dry conditions prevail Thursday into the upcoming weekend
  with high pressure largely in control.

* Below normal temperatures are forecast on Thursday through Friday
  with highs struggling to reach 60 degrees. Nighttime temperatures
  could fall into the lower and middle 30s inland and 40s elsewhere.

* Milder weather returns next weekend with temperatures potentially
  reaching the low 70s by next Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A coastal storm continues to impact the terminals through
tonight.

Conditions will fall to IFR this morning and then prevail
through tonight. There could be some fluctuations between MVFR
and IFR at times, especially this morning. Rain continues
through much of the TAF period, but should become more
intermittent by tonight.

NNE gusts will range from 25-35 kt into the afternoon,
especially at NYC terminals, Long Island and coastal Connecticut
terminals. Winds should start decreasing late afternoon and will
continue weakening tonight with peak gusts 20-25 kt at coastal
terminals towards day break Tuesday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for ceilings and visibilities through the TAF
period.

Wind gusts could end up slightly lower than forecast into the
afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: MVFR in the morning with a chance of rain east of NYC
metro. VFR likely by the afternoon. N to NNE wind gusts G20-25kt.

Wednesday-Thursday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Friday: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A coastal storm will impact the waters through today bringing
strong winds and dangerous seas. Some tweaks have been made to
the marine headlines. The Storm Warning has been cancelled and
replaced by a Gale warning through 07Z/300 AM EDT. Everywhere
else a Gale Warning is in effect for gusts up to 40 to 45 kt.
Waves across the Sound could reach 5 to 7 feet with 7 to 12 feet
possible in extreme eastern portions of the Sound.

As the storm pulls away, headlines may need to be stepped down
as relatively windy conditions will continue for several days. SCA
conditions continue on all waters Wednesday into Thursday due
to building high pressure and lingering swells. There is a
chance seas fall below 5 ft on Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
For most, an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected. While
minor nuisance/poor drainage flooding is possible, no significant
impacts are expected with this being a long duration rainfall
and recent dry conditions.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
This forecast update has maintained much of the previous
forecast with the updated guidance continuing to show additional
surge this afternoon associated with the approach of a secondary
sfc low. While some locations have fallen short categorically
from the overnight`s high tide cycle, locations across southern
Nassau and Southwest Suffolk did reach moderate levels. There is
still some concern of isolated major flooding for locations in
Nassau County and in Lindenhurst with the afternoon high tide.
Some of this will depend on the approach of the sfc low, whether
the winds become a bit more NE than NNE, and the role, if any,
of tidal piling between the overnight and this afternoon`s high
tide.

All this said, made no change to coastal flood headlines, but
messaging on major flooding has been tempered a bit more based
on the overnight trends.

For this update, maintained the blend of 75th percentile
Stevens, 75th percentile PETSS, and deterministic STOFS and
ETSS, with some minor adjustments down to peak TWL values.

Finally along the oceanfront, widespread dune base erosion and
localized overwashes are likely during the times of high tide
thru today, via the combo of high stormtide and breaking surf
around 8 to 12 ft. The prolonged e to w sweep will likely result
in considerable beach erosion (escarpment) as well. 4-8 ft surf
along NE facing and open water exposed areas of the twin forks
of Long Island will also likely cause minor to moderate dune
erosion.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     CTZ009>012.
NY...Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ072-
     074-075-178.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ071-
     073-078-079-081-176-177.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080-
     179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ006-
     104-106-108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 3 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/JT
NEAR TERM...MET/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS/MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...DS/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...