164
FXUS61 KOKX 041453
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1053 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Based on latest obs and recent performance of the NBM the last
few days, dropped highs a couple of degrees. Highs will mainly
be in the mid and upper 80s, but cooler along the immediate
coast.

High pressure remains overhead today with a gradually building
upper ridge. This will warm the mid-levels a bit and result in
a warmer day.

In addition, smoke from Canadian wildfires, most pronounced
north of the area will gradually drift south into the area
today. Both vertically integrated smoke and near surface smoke
concentrations will increase into Monday afternoon. Model
visibilities are not showing much in the way of visibility
restrictions. For the time, will mention haze across the area.
This will be closely monitored and would not be surprised if
state DECs issue air quality alerts. Beyond today, the smoke
may lift back to the north due to the aforementioned height
rises along the east coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Generally tranquil conditions with a remaining dry airmass will
allow for another relatively cool night with lows in the upper
50s for interior spots and 60s for most.

Highs on Tuesday will be similar to today, though maybe a degree
or two cooler. An increase in cloud cover Tuesday night and into
Wednesday should prevent highs from climbing out of the low to
middle 80s for Wednesday, though the forecast remains dry. As
the high pressure strengthens to the north, an increasing
easterly flow on Wednesday will also increase moisture a bit at
the surface, though the humidity is not anticipated to get to a
level to make for oppressive conditions.

The presence of any smoke will continue to be monitored for
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***Key Points***

The NBM was largely followed with this update with no major changes.

Key Points:

* Dry conditions are expected through next weekend with high
  pressure in control

* Seasonable temperatures through the period with highs in the 80s.
  Humidity levels will creep up a bit, but are not expected to be
  excessive during this time frame.

A decent stretch of sensible weather is in store for the extended as
global models and their respective ensembles advertise a building
upper ridge and high pressure at the surface much of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region through the TAF period.

VFR to start. MVFR vsbys for smoke will be possible today and
could continue into the evening hours, especially across the
inland terminals. Have moved MVFR vsby into a TEMPO as
confidence is decreasing in vsbys lowering. If smoke does
occur, terminals that get a seabreeze would likely improve back
to VFR during the afternoon. Also, smoke will likely result in
slant range visibility issues.

Light and variable winds become light northerly in the morning
with sea breezes developing midday into the afternoon. Winds
become light and variable once again tonight.

    NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Wind shift/sea breeze timing may be off by an hour or so today.

Uncertainty with how smoke will affect vsbys today with the
potential for MVFR, but likely not below that.

Slant range visibility restrictions likely with any smoke.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday. Mainly VFR. Visibility restrictions from smoke will be
possible.

Wed-Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Wednesday morning. An
easterly swell will gradually build through the period with seas
building to around 4 ft on Wednesday afternoon and 5 ft
Wednesday night. Seas are forecast to remain around 5 ft through
Friday, but this will depend on the magnitude and location of
low pressure well off the Mid Atlantic coast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The pressure gradient remains weak today. However, the pressure
gradient does steepen a bit for Tuesday with low pressure well
out in the Atlantic and a strengthening high pressure area
moving across the Canadian Maritimes.

Light and variable winds today become more southerly along the
coast in the afternoon. For Tuesday, more consistent slowly
increasing east to southeast winds are forecast. The onshore
fetch increases Tuesday.

Lower waves, near 1 to 2 ft, and light winds keep a low rip current
risk for the ocean beaches today. The easterly winds Tuesday
could very well reach up to around 10 kt in the afternoon and
with the developing fetch and slightly building waves, to near 3
ft, the rip current risk is moderate for the ocean beaches
Tuesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MW
NEAR TERM...MW/DW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BC/JT
MARINE...MW
HYDROLOGY...MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...