008
FXUS61 KOKX 201133
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
733 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system impacts the area today into tonight. Hurricane Erin
will pass well to the southeast from Thursday into Friday, bringing
indirect but significant impacts along the shoreline. High pressure
will return by late week, then a cold front will approach from the
west from Sunday into Monday. Please refer to NHC forecasts for
further information on Hurricane Erin.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Points

* Life-threatening surf and rip currents at all Atlantic Ocean
  beaches

* Isolated flash flood threat at this time today into tonight as
  a frontal system impacts the area

A weakening frontal system approaches the area from the west
today as hurricane Erin moves up the east coast of the US.
Aloft, a shortwave trough approaches. Although the frontal
system is "weakening" it will still have a part in impacting the
area today as it helps bring in some moisture from the west.
Showers are expected through much of the day as plenty of lift
is available through the column with the help of the
aforementioned shortwave, a right entrance region of an upper
level jet and surface convergence. There remains uncertainty
on how or if any interaction with Erin will occur, which would
only further enhance rainfall. In coordination with WPC the
marginal risk was kept over the area, but an upgrade is possible
as trends are monitored this morning. One limiting factor will
be the lack high hourly rainfall rates from the latest CAMs.
This is likely due to the lack of deep convection. There is only
very little elevated instability available. Kept slight chance,
but confidence is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points

* Life-threatening surf and rip currents at all Atlantic Ocean
  beaches continue

The short term period will be dominated by the indirect but
significant impacts along the shoreline from Hurricane Erin as
it passes well to the south east. See TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
section below.

Otherwise, dry, but windy conditions are expected. Winds peak
late Thursday into early Friday out of the NE with gusts up to
20 to 30 mph for most and potentially isolated up to 40 mph
across Long Island and the immediate coast. The 90th percentile
NBM was blended in with the NBM due to the usual low NBM bias.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Went with the NBM Sat and beyond with little change to the
overall fcst thinking attm. Ridging at the sfc/aloft will build
in after Erin`s departure. As this ridge moves east another
frontal system will approach on Sunday and pass through on
Monday, with chance of showers and possibly a tstm.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A frontal system impacts the region today and tonight, moving
east and weakening toward Thursday morning.

VFR, becoming MVFR across the terminals by 14Z/15z, with a
chance of showers. MVFR prevails into late afternoon with
showers, and perhaps a rumble of thunder. However, low
confidence and isolated, so not mentioned in the forecast.
Conditions lower to IFR early evening with showers becoming less
widespread by the overnight.

Winds E to NE around 10 kt increase to 10-15 kt by late
morning. Gusts are likely during the afternoon, although gusts
may be more occasional. Winds back to NE at 10-15 kt this
evening, and gusts 20-30 kt, highest along the coast, develop
late.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of lowering flight categories may be off by an hour or
two.

Gusts this afternoon may be more occasional.

A rumble of thunder is possible late afternoon into the early
evening. However, with low confidence in the occurrence not
included in the forecast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: Chance of showers in the morning with MVFR/IFR cond
still possible. NE winds 15-20kt G25-35kt, highest along the
coast. Improving to VFR by evening.

Friday: VFR. NE-N winds 15G20-25kt in the morning.

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: MVFR or lower possible in any showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The Gale Watch on the ocean waters has been converted to a Gale
Warning and all non-ocean waters are now under a Small Craft
Advisory.

As Hurricane Erin passes well to our southeast, an E/NE flow
will increase to 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 40 kt for the
ocean waters and 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt for non-
ocean waters. Additionally, there will be a combination of a SE
swell from Erin and an E wind wave. Significant wave heights
could over the ocean waters could peak Thursday afternoon at 16
to 18 feet, with occasional seas of 20+ feet. 5-8 foot waves
also reach the eastern LI Sound and 5 foot waves are expected at
the entrance of the NY Harbor.

Please refer to National Hurricane Center forecasts for further
information on Erin.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is a chance for areas of minor urban and poor drainage
flooding today into tonight due to a slow moving frontal system.
In general, up to an inch of rainfall is expected across the
area. However, locally higher amounts of 2+ inches can not be
ruled out if persistent activity develops along the front. There
will be a higher flash flood threat if tropical moisture from
Erin makes it into the area, with eastern areas the most likely
spots for this to occur late today into tonight. There is
uncertainty if this connection will occur and trends will be
monitored closely today. The WPC has kept the area in a marginal
risk of excessive rainfall, but this risk could increase with
future updates.

Thereafter, there are no hydrologic concerns through early next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A High Surf Advisory and High Rip Current risk are in effect for
all Atlantic Ocean beaches through Friday as swell from
Hurricane Erin will bring life-threatening surf and rip
currents. Additionally, a Coastal Flood Watch has been issued
for all of southern LI, southern Queens, Brooklyn and Staten
Island for the potential of widespread moderate flooding along
the vulnerable areas of the immediate coast for the Thursday
evening high tide cycle. Minor coastal flooding may continue
with each high tide cycle through Friday.

Life-threatening surf and rip currents expected for the rest of this
week as building long period swells from Erin continue, peaking
Thu/Fri. Surf heights could reach 12-16 ft from Thu afternoon
and continuing into early Fri morning, as large, very long
period swells (10-11 ft @ 15-17 sec) arrive nearly head on at
the beaches.

The threat for beach flooding, beach erosion and escarpment and
areas of dune erosion will increase with successive high tides
thru Thu night. Widespread areas of dune erosion are likely
with localized overwashes during the Thu evening and Fri morning
high tides. This high surf will be combined with elevated water
levels as we approach a new moon.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Watch Thursday evening for NYZ074-075-080-081-
     178-179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT Friday
     for ANZ331-332-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Friday
     for ANZ335-338.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JMC/JT
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/JT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...