825
FXUS61 KOKX 080001
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
701 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the west through the first half of
Saturday. Low pressure then approaches from the Ohio Valley on
Saturday with a secondary low taking shape south of Long Island
Saturday night. Low pressure departs to the east Sunday as high
pressure builds to the west. High pressure will be in control
Sunday night into Monday. A series of low pressures may impact
the waters Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Only minor changes, temperatures, dew points, and wind, this
evening for current conditions and trends.

The passage of a northern branch shortwave trough and deepening
low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will continue to allow
colder air to filter into the area tonight on NW winds. Wind
gusts of 20 to 30 mph early this evening will quickly subside as
high pressure builds east from the Ohio Valley. Expect a mainly
clear night with some high clouds filtering in from the west
toward daybreak. Lows will range from the upper teens inland to
the lower and middle 20s at the coast. This is right around
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
There is good model agreement in taking a southern branch low
over the Mid Mississippi Valley east on Saturday and into the
Ohio Valley by late afternoon/early evening. As the upper
forcing approaches the coast Saturday night, a secondary low
takes shape south of Long Island, passing to the south and east
overnight. How quickly this secondary low takes shape will be
critical into how strong of an elevated warm layer gets into
the area ahead of the weakening primary low to the west. There
seems to be good agreement with a warm nose pushing into the
NYC/NE metro, southern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, and
western LI around 10 pm - Midnight. Beyond that, the warm air
may not get too much farther north and east as the coastal low
takes shape to the south and SE winds back around to the E/NE
and mid level cool. While this is a close call with the
precipitation likely transitioning to a mix closer to the coast,
strong thermal forcing and frontogenetic forcing will provide a
quick front end dump of snow for most locations with snowfall
rates an inch plus for about a 2 to 3 hour period. Most of this
occurs from Saturday evening into early Sunday morning with a
transition to a lighter precipitation mixed with sleet, freezing
drizzle, and possibly plain rain at the coast (LI and NYC).
Light precipitation will then linger into Sunday morning with
little additional snowfall and/or ice accretion. Any icing looks
light, perhaps a glaze on top of the already fallen snow.

Snowfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected across LI and the
NYC/NJ metro, where a winter weather advisory is in effect.
Across interior NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and southern CT,
expect 5 to 7 inches with a Winter Storm Warning in effect.
Winds through the event are expected to be under 10 mph, so
blowing and drifting unlikely.

Temperatures on Saturday get up into the lower and middle 30s,
then fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s in the evening with
the onset of the snow, fluctuating little overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Points:

* Increased confidence for accumulating snow late Tuesday night into
  early Wednesday.

* Uncertainty remains high for accumulating snow Wednesday
  through Thursday as additional low pressure systems possibly impact
  the area.

* Daytime high temperatures will be below normal for much of the
  week, with the exception of Thursday, with near normal overnight
  low temperatures.

The fast and nearly zonal flow aloft will continue Sunday through
Wednesday with a more amplified trough approaching the east coast
Thursday and passing through Thursday night. High pressure briefly
build into the area late Sunday through late Monday. With another
high likely building to the north late Tuesday through Wednesday
cold air will remain in place. And with a couple of lows passing to
the south precipitation with these lows late Tuesday into Wednesday
will be all snow across the region. The track of the lows are a
little uncertain and will be determined with the strength of the
high to the north. There is increased confidence for an
accumulating snow late Tuesday into Wednesday, however, amounts
are uncertain with the track of the low, and have trended lower.

There may be a brief break in the precipitation later Wednesday into
Wednesday evening, however with the uncertainty with the timing of
the lows will maintain at least chance probabilities.
With the next low pressure system quickly approaching late
Wednesday, and being more amplified and a deeper surface low, chances
remain high for additional snow accumulations at least across the
inland areas. There will be increased moisture with this system as
the low takes a southerly track and Gulf moisture entrains. With the
inland system and a strong southerly flow with strong warm air
advection, frozen precipitation will likely transition to rain along
the coast, and mixed precipitation inland. And with the warm
advection temperatures Thursday may be near to above normal. High
pressure and upper ridging build behind the low to end next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure building toward the terminals through tonight will
pass east Saturday afternoon. As low pressure moves through the
Ohio Valley, a leading warm front will approach late in the
afternoon.

VFR to start, then light snow should start to arrive at the NYC
metros/KISP after 22Z-23Z with vsby quickly lowering to MVFR
then IFR.

NW winds diminish tonight, then become SE-S 5-10 kt in the
afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD possible this evening to adjust end time of gusts.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday night: Snow developing, with widespread IFR and LIFR at
times in locally moderate to heavy snow. Precip transitions to
a wintry mix at KEWR as early as 03Z, and for the remaining NYC
metros and KISP/KHPN just before midnight. Most likely snow
accumulations of 6-7 inches expected at KSWF/KBDR/KGON, and 4-5
inches elsewhere.

Sunday: MVFR early, becoming VFR by noon. NW winds G20-25kt.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: Chance of snow in the afternoon, becoming likely at
night. IFR/LIFR conditions possible especially at night.

Wednesday: Chance of light snow/MVFR or lower cond.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Wind gusts across the non ocean and nearshore waters have
diminished below 25 kt. There may be occasional gusts near 25 kt
across the eastern Sound/bays until around 900 PM, and will
have occasional wording in the forecast. Otherwise, the SCA for
the non ocean waters has been cancelled.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected to return to the ocean waters
into tonight as high pressure builds in from the west. Winds
and seas will then remain below SCA through Saturday night until
low pressure deepens east of the area Sunday.

A strong and gusty northwest flow develops behind departing low
pressure Sunday with small craft seas likely on the ocean
waters with marginal advisory gusts. Winds diminish Sunday night
with building high pressure, however, ocean seas will remain
elevated until late Sunday night. With a weak pressure gradient
force Tuesday into Wednesday winds and seas remain below
advisory across all the forecast waters. Then with an increasing
northeast flow with low pressure impacting the waters Wednesday
night marginal SCA conditions will be possible across the ocean
waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM Saturday to 11 AM EST Sunday
     for CTZ005>012.
NY...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM Saturday to 11 AM EST Sunday
     for NYZ067>070.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM Saturday to 11 AM EST Sunday
     for NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM Saturday to 11 AM EST Sunday
     for NJZ002-103.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM Saturday to 11 AM EST Sunday
     for NJZ004-006-104>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW