865
FXUS61 KOKX 161728
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
128 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area through the end of the week
and will remain in control through the weekend. A fast moving
cold front passes through the area Sunday night into Monday.
Weak high pressure then briefly follows before another frontal
system potentially impacts the area for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pres near the Great Lakes and low pres over the Atlc will
produce cool and breezy wx today with most areas staying in the
50s. Wind chills this mrng in the 30s and 40s. Some mid clouds
early, then sunny with deep subsidence. Based on model time
heights, wind gusts in the 20-30 mph range seem reasonable,
with perhaps a few higher peak gusts due to deep mixing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pres builds ewd tngt, but the gradient still should keep
winds going for most if not all of the cwa overnight. This will
serve to limit frost potential and allow for more homogeneous
low temps. Any spots that do decouple will likely see temps blw
the NBM numbers.

Increasing heights on Fri, and with deep mixing on NW flow,
temps should be a few degrees warmer than Thu. With a somewhat
dirty ridge building in from the W, should see some high clouds.
Winds diminishing in the aftn as the pres grad relaxes.

Better radiational cooling cond Fri ngt with light to calm
winds. Main limiting factor could be high clouds over the area.
Because of these, stuck with the NBM which is too mild for frost
advy criteria anywhere. Some patchy frost may be possible in the
normally colder sheltered spots. There could also be some patchy
fog in the river valleys.

Some thicker mid and high clouds on Sat filtering some of the
sunshine, but temps should be even warmer nonetheless as the
thermal ridge begins to build in from the W. No rain with the
next sys still well to the W of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The fcst thinking is on track and the NBM was followed.

Key Messages:

* A progressive upper low tracking across the Great Lakes sends
  a cold front and showers across the area Sunday night into
  Monday.

* Sunday looks to be the warmest day ahead of the cold front
  with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s, which is about 3 to
  5 degrees abv normal. Expect readings closer to normal for
  the remainder of the period.

* Another frontal system approaches for the middle of next week.
  Upper air pattern pointing toward the development of a
  longwave trough across the east.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions through the TAF period with high pressure
building in from the west.

NNW-NW winds 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt by this afternoon.
Winds and gusts will gradually subside this evening with gusts
likely ending overnight. NNW-NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts around
20 kt anticipated Friday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts could be a few kt higher than forecast this
afternoon.

End time of gusts tonight may be off by 1-2 hours.

Gusts on Friday could be occasional.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday Afternoon-Saturday: VFR.

Sunday...VFR. SE gusts 20-25 kt possible in the afternoon and
evening.

Sunday night: MVFR or lower in showers. SW gusts 15-20 kt
possible.

Monday: MVFR or lower possible early. Chance of showers. W gusts
20-25 kt possible.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, SW gusts 15-20 kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
NW flow thru Fri with a SCA for all waters today, lasting thru
tngt on the ocean. The SCA may need to be extended on the
remaining waters thru tngt.

Winds and seas decrease subside on Fri. A SCA may be needed, for
all or part of the day, particularly on the ocean.

Winds and seas blw SCA lcls on Sat, then return flow ahead of a
frontal sys may bring winds and seas to SCA lvls for Sun. A SCA
will likely be needed behind the sys for Sun ngt and Mon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected thru early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
N flow gradually relaxes on Friday. Tide levels to reach close
to minor thresholds for the most vulnerable spots along the
Fairfield CT coastline and along the back bays of S Nassau/SW
Suffolk. This may all be dependent on how quickly the N flow
relaxes as the offshore flow could mitigate water levels from
reaching minor thresholds.

With a strengthening S flow and building seas Sunday into Monday,
there is a chance that some tidal piling and elevated astronomical
tides associated with the new moon of the 20th may lead to some
spotty minor coastal flooding in these same areas.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/DS/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC/DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...