646
FXUS61 KOKX 010252
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1052 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front continues to move through the region tonight. High
pressure then builds in late tonight and Monday and will remain
in control through Wednesday. A warm front lifts north of the
area on Wednesday Night followed by a cold front late in the
week which may remain nearby into the first half of next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The cold front has still yet to pass through SE CT and eastern LI
as of nearly 03z. Expect only low chances of showers right along
the front for the next few hours, with dry conditions for the
overnight. A much drier air mass will ensue with the winds
switching NW to N. Dewpoints will fall quickly through 60s from
NW to SE across the area. By the pre-dawn hours look for
dewpoints to get into the middle and upper 50s with a more
refreshing and comfortable feel into Monday morning with gusts
of 15 to 20 mph in places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
During Monday expect a pleasant early summer day. Dewpoint
readings should remain primarily in the 50s with temperatures
a few degrees below normal with upper 70s to lower 80s for the
afternoon. With the strong synoptic flow out of the N there is
little chance for sea breeze development. Forecast soundings
indicate some scattered cloud development in the 5 to 7 kft
level with any daytime heating towards the late morning and
afternoon. Otherwise expect a partly to mostly sunny day with a
refreshing breeze out of the N.

The pressure gradient relaxes Monday night with high pressure
starting to settle just west of the area. With light winds and
likely just a few clouds around 5 kft expect some radiational
cooling across outlying areas. Temperatures should be able to
fall into the lower and middle 50s in the coolest spots, with
lower to middle 60s for the metro and along much of the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No major changes were made to the Long Term and closely followed the
NBM.

High pressure will remain in control Tuesday and Wednesday before
shifting offshore Wednesday night as a warm front lifts to the
north. A cold front will follow, but will likely not move through
the area and may remain to our north into early next weekend. Will
have to watch the evolution of any middle level impulses as they
ride along the periphery of the ridge. These are difficult to
resolve at this time range, but they may be a focus for showers and
thunderstorms. Right now the consensus of the modeling indicates a
bit higher probability on Friday and potentially Saturday compared
to Thursday.

Temperatures remain seasonable on Wednesday. The deterministic NBM
has trended down a bit for the end of the week, but still should
reach above normal levels, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s
away from the coast. Similar readings are expected through Saturday.
Humidity levels will also be on the rise for the end of the week
into next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure build in behind a cold front for the overnight
hours and lasts through Monday.

VFR. NW-NNW gusts around 20kt for the overnight, mainly for the
city terminals. NNW-N winds increase Monday morning to around
15kt with gusts near 25kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts tonight might be only occasional.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: VFR. S wind gusts 15-20 kt Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday early evening.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible with any late day or nighttime
showers/tstms.

Friday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers and
tstms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA has been canceled with this updated with seas remaining
below 5 ft. Some NW-N gusts around 20kt for the overnight
hours. On Monday, high pressure builds with slowly subsiding
seas with mainly sub small craft conditions, although nearshore
gusts may occasionally gust near 25kt. The pressure gradient
relaxes Monday night as north winds lighten and ocean seas
subside closer to 2 ft towards early Tuesday morning.

Sub advisory conditions will remain through at least Wednesday night
for all waters as high pressure settles over the waters, then moves
offshore. Marginal small craft conditions become more likely late
Thursday as a southerly flow increases, with possible small craft
seas on the ocean into Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrological impacts are expected through Wednesday. A
frontal boundary and pre-frontal trough are likely to approach
late Thursday into Friday, and possibly linger to begin next
weekend. It remains too early to determine the risk of any
hydrological impacts from this frontal system.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There will be a moderate rip current risk on Monday with a lingering
S to SE swell. A low rip current risk is anticipated for Tuesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE
NEAR TERM...JC/JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/JE
HYDROLOGY...JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...