304
FXUS61 KOKX 241823
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
223 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly approaches from the west into tonight, before
passing through on Monday. High pressure then gradually builds in
for the middle of the week. A frontal system may approach the
region Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Closed upper trough axis centered over the Great Lakes slowly
advances into the Northeast. Cold front pushes east ahead of
it, slowly approaching through tonight.

Winds ahead of the boundary are largely onshore from the south.
The front remains well back across western PA as of 18Z, so
forcing is weak locally, as is instability. A mid level cloud
deck ahead of the front has worked into the Hudson Valley and
northeast NJ, but only a few widely scattered light rain showers
have made it this far east, and CAMs aren`t indicating much in
the way of additional activity working east through tonight
with the boundary hanging back to the west. More likely, low
stratus and areas of fog may develop late with saturating low
levels.

Meanwhile, a non tropical coastal area of low pressure slides off
the Carolina coast and passes just to the east of the area
tonight. Most guidance keeps the region dry from this system,
but a couple solutions do graze the LI Forks and SE CT with a
few showers tonight or early Monday morning as it passes east,
so will maintain at least slight chance PoPs here, with
overcast skies otherwise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Trough axis shifts into the Northeast on Monday, with a leading
cold front moving through locally during the morning hours, and
an offshore coastal low passing 150 mi southeast of Montauk.

Not anticipating widespread rainfall with the actual frontal
passage, and CAMs depict only isolated to scattered showers
possible in the early morning as it moves through. Absent this,
many, if not most, remain dry. Any lingering fog or low stratus
erodes through mid morning, and remaining cloud cover attempts
to break up as the day progresses and the front works further
offshore.

Soundings indicate a well-mixed BL developing, up to 750 mb, as
flow turns westerly behind the fropa. This should allow gusts
20 to 25 mph much of the day. 925 mb are progged into the low
20s(C), which should allow for a rather warm and humid day prior
to the arrival of cooler air behind the front. Afternoon highs
top the low to mid 80s, or even a couple of degrees above normal
for late August. The drier, cooler air mass begins to advect in
by late day, and dew pts fall from the mid to upper 60s in the
afternoon, down into the 50s by the evening. Dry conditions
prevail Monday night with clearing skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points:

* Dry conditions expected through Thursday, with slight shower
  chances Friday.

* Temperatures will be near or slightly below normal for the period.

Decent model agreement through the week with a series of upper
troughs advecting through the northeast with little fanfare. High
pressure at the surface slowly makes its way east from the Central
Plains heading south of the area by late week. Thus, with the high
off to the west, northwest flow at the surface will dominate, and so
expecting dry and cooler conditions Tuesday through Thursday. By
Friday, an upper trough approaches from the west along with a weak
cold front. Precipitation chances do increase through the day on
Friday, but with better forcing to our north via the
aforementioned upper trough, not anticipating much in the way
of shower activity associated with the system at this point.

The NBM was followed for this update.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front slowly approaches through this evening and moves across
the terminals on Monday.

Generally looking at VFR conditions today. The one exception will be
north and west of NYC, where there is a better chance of MVFR cigs,
mainly KSWF and KHPN, however MVFR may not prevail until late this
afternoon or evening. More widespread MVFR ceilings become likely
tonight with showers possible late tonight into Monday
AM for the more western
terminals, especially KSWF.

A general S flow through the TAF period. NYC terminals remain around
8-12 kt for most terminals, with gusts up to 20 kt during the
afternoon. The winds then decrease for the evening. The
winds will become primarily SW and W Monday morning at 5 to 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

MVFR conditions could occur earlier than indicated in TAFs for
tonight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday afternoon: MVFR or lower possible, mainly east of
NYC. Scattered showers also possible

Tuesday - Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Extended Small Craft Advisory (SCA) on the coastal ocean waters
until 8 PM this evening as long period easterly swells
continue, with seas hanging near 5 feet. Seas gradually lower
into tonight, before building back toward 5 ft on waters east of
Fire Island inlet late Monday afternoon with increasing
southerly swells. Additional SCA may be needed here Monday
evening through Tuesday morning.

Other than noted above, winds and waves are expected to remain
below advisory criteria through the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The high risk for rip currents continues through this evening
for the Atlantic Ocean beaches as residual long period 3 to 4
ft easterly swell @ 10-11 seconds slowly subsides.

Monday there is a moderate risk for rip currents at the Atlantic
Ocean beaches as a 3 to 4 ft swell continues. The risk may
increase to high for the Southeastern Suffolk beaches late
Monday as swell builds to 5 ft.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DBR/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DBR/DR
HYDROLOGY...DBR/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...