450
FXUS61 KOKX 081550
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1150 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves east of the area this afternoon. A large
dome of high pressure will then build in from tonight into
Thursday, settle over the area Thursday night into Friday, then
begin to move east on Saturday. A coastal storm could impact the
area from Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
With FROPA already taken place across much of the area, and the
front clearing ern sections towards midday, look for the rain to
essentially shut off with the passage of the front for eastern
sections, with only a couple of lingering showers early this
afternoon even after cold fropa mainly across eastern LI and E
So. CT. Skies clear quickly thereafter, with a NW-N wind
essentially gusting to 20-25 mph, with a few occasional gusts
approaching 30 mph in a few locations.

Temps this afternoon will not be nearly as warm as recent days,
with highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s. The most noticeably
change is with dew point readings into the 50s, and even some
dew points into 40s towards and just after sundown.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Expect winds to diminish only somewhat tonight, which should
limit extent of radiational cooling even under clear skies.
Low temps tonight should range from around 50 in/near NYC to
the 40s most elsewhere, and reaching the upper 30s in parts of
Orange County. Highs on Thu will be the coolest of the season
thus far, with highs only in the upper 50s/lower 60s.

As the high settles over the area Thu night, clear skies and
diminishing winds will promote strong radiational cooling, with
low temps in the 40s only in the NYC metro area, with 30s most
elsewhere, and sub freezing temperatures across much of the
interior where a freeze watch is not in effect, and across
parts of the Long Island Pine Barrens.

Temps moderate somewhat Fri into Fri night, with highs 60-65 and
lows mostly in the 40s to lower 50s, with a few upper 30s in
some of the interior valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Points:

* High pressure will move east on Saturday.

* Potential is increasing for a coastal storm to impact the area
  from Sunday into Monday with strong winds, coastal flooding,
  and some heavy rainfall.

* Temps will be close to mid October norms.

Model guidance is trending toward the idea of low pressure
developing off the SE coast on Sat moving NNE to a position off
the Mid Atlantic coast early next week. Earlier model forecasts
had shown an upper ridge developing atop the storm over the
Northeast and shunting it more to the south, which would have
dealt more of a glancing blow to the area with some gusty winds
and little to no rainfall, but they have now trended away from
that and toward the idea of a nrn stream closed low digging SE
through the upper Great Lakes and OH Valley, preventing upper
ridging from shunting the storm south, pulling the storm NNE
and even stalling it off the Mid Atlantic coast on Mon as the
two systems phase aloft. This increases the potential for strong
winds and periods of heavy rain Sunday night into Mon,
especially closer to the coast. Reasonable worst case scenarios
attm are for winds reaching advy criteria with gusts over 45 mph
over a good portion of the area, perhaps closer to warning
criteria with gusts closer to 60 mph across eastern Long Island,
and 1-2 inches of rain. See the Tides/Coastal Flooding section
below for possible coastal impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure builds in behind a departing cold front.

Brief MVFR/IFR the next couple of hours, otherwise VFR as
showers come to an end and skies clear form west to east.

W-NW winds bcmg NNW by early afternoon. Gusts 20-25kt through
this afternoon, with the gusts lingering into this evening for
some terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

End time of gusts may be off by a couple of hours tonight for
KEWR and KTEB, and there is a chance that gusts are only
occasional at most overnight for KLGA and KJFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: VFR. N gusts around 20 kt, mainly in the morning.

Friday-Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in rain. NE gusts 25-35kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA expanded to include the central/ern sound where nearshore
obs on the CT coast were gusting over 25 kt. SCA continues
today for the ocean and south shore bays, with gusts up to 25 kt
and ocean seas as high as 5-6 ft. Post-frontal N flow should
bring SCA cond to all waters tonight, with gusts 25-30 kt and
ocean seas remaining at 5-6 ft. These conditions should last
into Thu morning on the ocean.

A coastal storm has potential to bring sustained gale force
winds and gusts to storm force on the ocean, and gale force
gusts elsewhere. Seas could build to 15-20 ft on the ocean, 8-12
ft on the Sound waters E of Orient Point, 5-10 ft at the NY
Harbor entrance, and 5-6 ft on the central Long Island Sound.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Despite the potential for more rain with a coastal storm early
next week, there are no hydrologic concerns attm as dry
antecedent conditions have prevailed.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
N flow should limit water levels somewhat on Thu, but as winds
turn E on Fri minor flooding looks possible for these areas and
also for Newark Bay.

Potential for a coastal storm capable of producing widespread
moderate flooding and beach erosion on Sunday/Monday has
increased, via the combo of high astronomical tides associated
with yesterday`s full moon, and surge generated by strong NE
flow.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for CTZ005>008.
NY...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for NYZ067>070.
NJ...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ331-332-
     345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ335-338-340.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG
NEAR TERM...JE/BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JC/DW
MARINE...BG
HYDROLOGY...BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...