157
FXUS61 KOKX 280737
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
237 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves eastward within Quebec as high pressure remains
well southwest of the local region through today. Low pressure
passes through the Canadian Maritimes tonight with high pressure
building in from the south and west. This high pressure area moves
across Saturday and then moves offshore for the rest of the weekend.
Another frontal system approaches from the Great Lakes for Sunday.
Warm front passes on Sunday with a cold front following that for
Sunday night. High pressure returns thereafter for Monday before
exiting and giving way to a developing wave of low pressure Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Weak high pressure moves in for midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An area of low pressure will traverse Southern Quebec from west to
east today while maintaining nearly the same central low pressure.
Meanwhile, high pressure well south and west of the region will
slightly fill in, a slight increase in central pressure. The result
will still be a tight pressure gradient across the region but will
trend weaker towards end of the day and into tonight.

Some mid level disturbances as diagnosed from positive vorticity
maximum and some increases in low to mid level omega in addition to
some elevated CAPE have necessitated an increase to the POPs in the
forecast. A well mixed boundary layer and drier air moving in will
be a limiting factor but after viewing several different CAMs did
increase 10 to 15 percent with POPs. The highest increase in POPs
was north and west of NYC, closer to the greater dynamics with more
forcing for lift. With any wet bulb cooling, the primary
precipitation type will be snow showers. POPs are just slight chance
for this and in the time period of greatest daytime heating, this
afternoon. This will be at a time when the coldest air at 850mb
moves across the area along with the lowest 1000-500mb thickness as
well. Forecast high temperatures stay mainly in the lower 40s,
around 5 to 6 degrees below normal for this time of year. Air will
still feel colder than the actual temperature with wind chills only
in the low to mid 30s at most.

Regarding wind gusts, the forecast has lowered a small amount
compared to previously forecast. Latest BUFKIT sounding show more
40kt for top of mixed layer gusts so appears the max or peak wind
gust will be 45 mph, with most gusts in the 35 to 40 mph range. This
will be under wind advisory thresholds which start at 46 mph and go
until 57 mph. If there is a max wind gust of 46 mph, it appears it
will be localized to where any moderate or heavy shower occurs and
enhanced via negative momentum transfer. Otherwise, expecting most
wind gusts to be under 45 mph.

For this evening, the low pressure will be moving farther northeast
into the Canadian Maritimes with simultaneous closer approach of
high pressure to the local region. The pressure gradient will
decrease more and with this relaxation, winds will decrease more.
This will really be observed late at night when the center of the
approaching high pressure area will be getting into the Mid-
Atlantic. With weakening lapse rates and main forcing getting
displaced more north and east of the local area, any leftover snow
shower activity will diminish in the evening. Clouds are expected to
decrease and along with the winds with enough winds and thereby
mixing to prevent ideal radiational cooling. Forecast lows will
exhibit less spatial range from the upper 20s to lower 30s for much
of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The short term forecast period will cover this weekend. Mid level
pattern starts with ridging but eventually transition to more
troughing to close out the weekend. At the surface, high pressure
continues to build in from the south and west. Eventually the center
of this high pressure area traverses the local area Saturday evening
before exiting to the northeast late at night.

Another frontal system approaches from the Great Lakes Saturday
night. Its associated warm front moves in by early Sunday and moves
across later that same day. The local region becomes briefly within
the warm sector as a cold front develops and approaches from the
west. This cold front moves across from west to east Sunday night.

Dry conditions are expected for Saturday but with decreasing winds
as vertical mixing will not be as deep, the airmass will not modify
much in terms of temperature. Forecast high temperatures are pretty
similar to those of the previous day and are mainly in the lower 40s
Likewise, lows Saturday night will not deviate significantly from
the lows the previous night, still ranging mainly from the upper 20s
to mid 30s.

More warm air advection is expected for Sunday with more return SW
flow developing. Chance for rain showers back in the forecast for
Sunday into Sunday night. At the onset, a wintry mix is forecast
north of west of NYC. No significant snow accumulations are
expected, as this looks to be a mainly rain event.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points:

* Monday should be mainly dry and colder as high pressure builds in
  from the west. Below normal temperatures are expected through
  Thursday.

* Low pressure may bring the first bout of winter weather to the
  area Tuesday into Tuesday night. There remains uncertainty in the
  low track, which will be critical in determining precipitation
  type.

NBM closely followed during this timeframe.

Global models are in good agreement with a shot of colder air
Sunday night into Monday. However, an active southern branch of
the polar jet will send Pac energy quickly across the country
Sunday into Tuesday, which interacts with low pressure over the
Gulf coast states. The latter tracks across the Southeast and
into the Mid Atlantic states Monday night into Tuesday with the
potential for secondary coastal low development. The low then
passes to the south and east of LI Tuesday night. The exact
track will be critical to precipitation type with only a
marginally cold airmass in place. The latest 12Z GFS and ECMWF
take the low close to the 40N...70W benchmark Tuesday night.
This is a track that often is more favorable for snowfall and/or
wintry weather across the forecast area. However, with no
blocking over the north Atlantic, surface high pressure quickly
lifts out to the Northeast ahead of the low. This will allow the
cold air to erode over the region and allow more of a maritime
influence. Right now, latest forecast calls for a snow/rain mix
at the coast transitioning to all rain, and snow to a rain/snow
mix inland. Ultimately, it will come down to how quickly the
cold air departs and the exact track of the low passing to the
southeast. Point being, it is too early to be specific with any
details, but does bear watching.

High pressure then follows for Wednesday into Thursday with below
normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Strong low pressure remains over southeastern Canada with high
pressure well southwest of the region through Friday.

VFR through the TAF period.

Winds and gusts continue to diminish with gusts ending for a period
overnight for the non-NYC terminals, and the NYC terminals likely
seeing gusts at some point become more occasional overnight. West
winds then increase once again around 12Z-14Z Friday with gusts
upwards of 30-35 kt. Some gusts to 40 kt are possible. Winds once
again diminish late Friday evening into Friday night.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts in NYC may be occasional through tonight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night: VFR. Diminishing W winds

Saturday: VFR. NW flow with gusts 15-20 kt.

Sunday: VFR in the morning then MVFR or lower with rain during the
afternoon and at night. S flow with gusts 15-20 kt.

Monday: VFR. Slight chance of showers in the morning.

Tuesday: MVFR. Chance of rain/snow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA hazards remain the same as previous forecast with SCA for
all waters until 6AM EST early this morning. Then the gale
warning goes in effect for all waters until 6PM EST this
evening. NY Harbor gale warning ends at 6PM EST this evening while
the rest of the waters have their gale warning continuing until
midnight tonight. Thereafter, would expect mostly SCA range
wind gusts on the waters late tonight into early Saturday
morning. Seas will eventually trend to less than SCA thresholds
Saturday. A period of sub-SCA conditions for all waters follows
until Sunday and Sunday night with SCA conditions returning to
most of the forecast waters for wind gusts and ocean seas return
to SCA levels.

High pressure will then follow for Monday with sub-SCA
conditions. A coastal low could bring a return to SCA conditions
on Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through the middle of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to midnight EST tonight
     for ANZ331-332-335-340-345-350-353-355.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening
     for ANZ338.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BC/MW
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM