114
FXUS64 KOHX 092323
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
523 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1102 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Showers continue to move north and east this morning, and obs
sites west of the TN river are now showing some of that precip
reaching the ground. CAMs show showers running into drier air over
the mid state early this afternoon for most of the area before
finally able to break through later in the afternoon and
especially this evening. Areas west of I-65 will likely see
showers put down a tenth to maybe three quarters of an inch of
rain before this evening. As the strong Plains low continues
northward, additional WAA and moisture will move in, and will
allow for some thunderstorms to develop this evening and
overnight. Not expecting anything severe with the lack of stronger
instability but there is decent deep layer shear that could yield
some gusty winds with any stronger updrafts. Southerly winds will
remain strong overnight outside of showers and storms, with speeds
around 10 to 20 mph and gusts as high as 30 mph, especially at
higher elevations. Cold front will push east Sunday, and rain
chances will also increase and push east during the afternoon
hours. Rain chances should come to an end Monday morning and the
front will be completely through the mid state by then also.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1102 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

After the rain moves through Sunday night, we are still looking at
around a half inch to an inch on the Plateau, and 1 to 2 inches
for the rest of the mid state through the weekend. Drier air will
move in Monday with somewhat zonal flow aloft. A weak shortwave
trough will move into the region Tuesday but looks dry, and
ridging will move in right behind it. The ridge will be short
lived as a stronger trough moves east from the Plains later on
Wednesday, and will bring in our next shot at rain. Ensembles are
not in complete agreement on timing yet, and even the
deterministic solutions are not completely on board with rain
Wednesday into Thursday. But nevertheless that trough will be our
next shot at seeing more needed rainfall across the area. Models
do agree that we will be a little cooler after this trough, with
highs in the 60s Thursday through Saturday and lows in the 40s for
most of the mid state. Drier weather returns Thursday into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

We are going to see areas of rain this evening across much of the
area with low cigs in the MVFR/IFR range, lower vis will be also
be possible at times. Showers will linger into the overnight along
with borderline MVFR cigs. Showers for the most part will push
north tomorrow morning with VFR cigs but a line of showers and
isolated thunderstorms will push in from the west after 19z and
will work east during the afternoon and evening. This will also
bring the return of MVFR cigs. Southerly winds increase overnight
becoming 10-15 knots, we will also see low level wind shear
overnight WS020/18045kt. The breezy winds will persist throughout
the morning gradually lower during the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      61  72  55  72 / 100  80  70   0
Clarksville    61  71  49  69 /  90  90  30   0
Crossville     53  64  53  68 /  70  70  90  10
Columbia       59  72  55  72 /  90  80  80   0
Cookeville     57  68  55  68 /  80  80  90  10
Jamestown      55  67  54  67 /  80  80  90  10
Lawrenceburg   59  71  56  72 /  90  60  80   0
Murfreesboro   59  72  57  72 /  90  70  80  10
Waverly        60  71  51  69 / 100  90  50   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnwell
LONG TERM....Barnwell
AVIATION.....Mueller