Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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088 FXUS64 KOHX 081756 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1156 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1155 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025 - High chance of snow accumulation and travel impacts Friday into early Saturday. - Cold temperatures this week with lows in the teens tonight. - Temperatures below freezing during nighttime hours next week will re-freeze any melted snow, resulting in black ice and continued hazardous travel especially on secondary roads. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1104 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025 Weak trough bringing enough lift across the area to see some flurries and light snow, especially near the Plateau where topographic help can get a bit more snow out of this system. Light accumulations will be possible especially on the Plateau through the mid afternoon or so. As the trough continues east, additional CAA will allow for lows tonight to get into the teens for most of the area, and possibly even single digits in the more cold prone areas. Temps expected to warm up above freezing for most during the day Thursday as upper ridging moves in ahead of the next trough. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1104 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025 Not much has changed in the forecast with the upcoming snow event. Models have hinted at a slightly further north track, which may allow for warmer air to move further north as well. This could allow for some rain to mix in with the snow especially near the AL border area. Any rain at all would rob moisture for the snow, and lessen snow amounts in that area. But, a further south track would limit moisture in northern zones, and lower snow amounts in that area. So, this is a difficult forecast in regards to snow amounts. At least the chances for sleet and freezing rain are very low with current model data. GFS and GEFS remain the most aggressive with snow and textbook isentropic lift over most of the day Friday, resulting in the heaviest snowfall. NAM has ramped up a little but remains below the GFS, and the ECMWF and ensembles remain on the lower end. Still, 10th percentile snow amounts are in the 1-2 inch range, and 90th percentile is in the 5 to 7 inch range, so we still have a decent spread between the models. Still have 3 to 6 inches across the mid state, with some locally higher amounts possible especially if any mesoscale bands develop with higher snowfall rates. Some of the CAMs are getting into the onset of the snow and suggest snow could start a little earlier than anticipated by a few hours, but either way, Friday will definitely have travel impacts regardless and travel should be avoided. Temps will likely be cooler if we get the snowfall currently in the forecast, so temps will struggle to get above freezing on Saturday. This will keep roads in rough shape especially on less traveled and secondary roads. Lows Saturday night will be in the teens, but there may be some relief Sunday with weak ridging and getting temps to the upper 30s. But another weak Midwest trough will swing through Sunday night into Monday, and could bring some flurries/light snow to the area. At the very least it will bring cloud cover, so any help from the sun on the roads doesn`t look likely. Lows in the teens/20s are expected each night next week, which any melting will result in re-freezing, keeping travel difficult with black ice on any cleared roads. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025 Visible satellite imagery and upstream sfc obs indicate low clouds/MVFR CIGS should begin to clear out from west to east over the next few hours, but guidance indicates low clouds will stick around at CSV through most of the night. Light north-northwest winds will decrease overnight, and may become calm at times, then after daybreak tomorrow become light and variable/southeasterly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 33 18 37 26 / 10 0 0 60 Clarksville 29 16 36 25 / 0 0 0 60 Crossville 29 11 34 19 / 20 10 0 30 Columbia 34 16 38 25 / 0 0 0 70 Cookeville 29 14 34 22 / 20 10 0 40 Jamestown 26 11 33 18 / 20 10 0 20 Lawrenceburg 35 15 39 25 / 0 0 0 70 Murfreesboro 34 15 37 23 / 10 10 0 60 Waverly 34 16 39 27 / 0 0 0 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnwell LONG TERM....Barnwell AVIATION.....05