200
FXUS64 KOHX 161756 CCA
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1214 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1213 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

- Next chance of widespread rains may not be until Sunday night or
  Monday but we are keeping an eye on Saturday for a conditional
  storm threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1028 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Surface high pressure is sliding across the region today, so we
are enjoying continued abundant sunshine with considerably lighter
winds than yesterday. The atmosphere across Middle Tennessee
remains quite dry. Precipitable Water from the 1530Z ACARS
sounding at BNA comes in at 0.287", for a PWAT+ value of 43
(observed PWAT is 43% of the daily mean value). Current dewpoints
are largely in the upper 20s to low 30s. Afternoon temperatures will
be a few degrees warmer today than on Tuesday, and tomorrow`s will
be even warmer, despite the addition of a few more clouds. A weak
shortwave will ripple across the mid state on Thursday. The deepest
moisture looks to stay north of us, but we can`t completely rule out
a stray shower or two north of I-40.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1028 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Temperatures will continue to warm on Friday, and here`s where
readings will level off for the foreseeable future. Highs and lows
going forward will stay remarkably even at least through next week.
Rain chances may return Saturday and Saturday night as a surface
boundary stalls out to our north and west. The NBM gives us better
probabilities of convection Sunday, Sunday night and early Monday
as the boundary makes slow progress. While the SPC hints at some
severe storm risk to the immediate W/NW of Middle Tennessee on
Saturday and Sunday, the risk of severe storms across the mid
state remains very low. And so do QPF values. The 13Z NBM gives
BNA an 83% probability of measurable rainfall from Sunday morning
until early Tuesday (48-hr QPF), but only a 39% of 1/2" or more.
So while we find ourselves transitioning to a wet pattern by the
start of next week, there doesn`t look to be any sort of "roller-
coaster" of temperature swings. Looking farther ahead, both the
6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center
favor above normal rainfall and above normal temperatures across
Middle Tennessee.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Clear skies through the
afternoon with mid to high level clouds building in during the
evening and overnight. Northerly winds under 10 knots this
afternoon shifting light out of the south this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      50  78  61  84 /  10  10   0   0
Clarksville    49  76  61  82 /  10  20   0   0
Crossville     41  69  54  78 /   0  10   0   0
Columbia       48  78  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     45  70  58  80 /   0  10   0   0
Jamestown      41  68  54  79 /   0  20   0   0
Lawrenceburg   48  77  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   46  77  60  83 /   0  10   0   0
Waverly        51  77  62  81 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Mueller