928
FXUS64 KOHX 082331
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
631 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

- Rain and storm chances become more widespread on Wednesday and
  Thursday. The overall severe threat this week remains low.

- Localized flash flooding, frequent lightning, and gusty winds will
  be possible with any storms this week.

- Heat indices will reach the upper 90s to low 100s today through
  Tuesday across most of Middle Tennessee west of the Cumberland
  Plateau, with the heat easing up starting on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1058 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

At forecast time, skies are mostly sunny and we have started to
warmup -- though not quite as quick as yesterday. This has lead
to slower Cu development, but don`t you worry; it`s starting to
pop. As we`ve reached those convective Ts (86 deg) this morning,
we`ve started to see a Cu field develop which means the pump is
primed for the scattered to numerous thunderstorms we expect to
see this afternoon. We`re already seeing some activity to our west
that will likely be the initial instigator for today`s storms.
With plenty of surface based instability in place by this
afternoon, any outflows from these storms will likely get things
fired up for us. A few CAMs limit the afternoon development, but
they did yesterday, too, and that didn`t quite work out for them
as many saw at least some rain yesterday afternoon. CAMs do show
that DCAPEs will increase towards 1000 J/Kg later this afternoon
for areas north of I-40 and west of I-65. This might slightly
increase the wind threat, but with only 15-20 kts of deep layer
shear and only double digit helicities, updrafts will struggle to
be maintained. For this reason, the threat of severe weather
continues to be low, but wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible.
The bigger issue will continue to be the amount of moisture in the
atmosphere. Both last night`s 00Z and this morning`s 12Z OHX
soundings have displayed PW values of 1.97". While not records,
definitely in the 90th percentile for this time of the year. With
slow movers and that much built-up moisture, look for rain rates
that could lead to localized flooding issues, especially for those
who saw copious rain yesterday. As storms die off this evening,
more patchy fog should develop after midnight.

While temperatures will start to back off tomorrow, the diurnal
storm coverage will be maintained, along with similar parameters as
described above. If there is any difference between today and
tomorrow, it`s the helpful hand of an upper level trough over the
region. This should provide *slightly* better support for updrafts.
While the severe threat remains low tomorrow, there is some
indication from the HREF (similar to what we saw yesterday) of a 10%
chance of 3+ inches of rain falling somewhere west of I-65. 00Z HREF
progs put it along I-40, west of Nashville Metro. This is worth
mentioning as a combination with Monday and today`s rain could cause
more than nuisance flooding in this area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1058 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

The forecast doesn`t get much drier as we move into the second half
of the week and into this weekend. Even as we lose some of the
influence of the upper trough, airmass thunderstorms will continue
to be on the docket each afternoon. Coverage may not be quite as
much this weekend, but you will still need to monitor the forecast
if you have outdoor plans. Any storms that develop will continue to
provide at least low chances for gusty winds, lightning and heavy
rainfall each afternoon and evening. In addition, while temperatures
should fall back to seasonal norms for this time frame, there is
some indication the heat will start to crank back up next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Widely scattered thunderstorms remain on radar this evening,
though terminals are currently clear of any activity. Storms have
developed in a nearby radius of SRB and CSV, so VCTS has been
included in the taf. Activity will dwindle down for the most part
after midnight. Patchy fog will be possible overnight, especially
at CKV, SRB, and CSV. Scattered thunderstorms are once again
expected tomorrow with a focus during the 18Z-00Z timeframe.
PROB30 groups have been included in the taf. Winds will favor a SW
direction, generally remaining at or below 5 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  90  73  90 /  30  60  30  70
Clarksville    73  88  72  89 /  20  50  40  60
Crossville     67  85  67  83 /  20  70  50  80
Columbia       71  89  70  88 /  20  70  30  80
Cookeville     69  86  69  86 /  20  70  50  80
Jamestown      68  85  67  83 /  20  70  50  80
Lawrenceburg   71  88  70  87 /  20  70  40  80
Murfreesboro   71  90  71  89 /  20  70  40  80
Waverly        71  87  70  88 /  30  60  30  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Baggett