043
FXUS64 KOHX 241708
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1208 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

- Fall-like temperatures are on the way for the work week, with highs
  10-20 degrees below normal expected.

- Dry days ahead, with the probability for severe weather low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1128 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

The day has arrived! Our first false fall has begun. The cold front
has passed through, turning our winds northerly and clearing the
skies over Middle Tennessee. Today will be the last day for a bit
that the highs reach 90 degrees in some areas. Dewpoints across the
mid-state have already dropped into the 60s, so starting to feel a
little better already.

Tonight, despite a drier air mass, patchy fog will once again be an
issue on the Cumberland Plateau. Not expecting much given the
dropping dewpoints, however. Expect a cooler night with lows in the
50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1128 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Guidance continues to show temperatures 10-20 degrees below normal
into mid-week next week. Best of all, less moisture in the incoming
air mass means very low precipitation chances next week and a
continued drier feeling to the air outside. Rain chances do increase
slightly starting Thursday, but remain low (<30%). The low pressure
system that is behind the cold front we experienced earlier will
stay to our north, putting us in northwest and eventually westerly
flow. This pattern means UL disturbances can pass through Middle
Tennessee with ease, and some of these disturbances look to affect
us and areas south towards the end of the work week. Hard to say
with certainty if rain chances will remain low, but right now it
looks like some areas will see isolated showers and others will not
see a drop from any of these disturbances. High temperatures will be
in the mid 70s to mid 80s through the period, with lows in the 50s
initially then increasing into the low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Northerly winds
will be breezy this afternoon with occasional gusts around 15
knots, but winds will relax to less than 10 knots after 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      60  83  59  80 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    55  82  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     53  74  52  73 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       58  83  59  80 /   0   0  10   0
Cookeville     55  76  54  75 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      54  75  52  73 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   56  81  58  78 /   0   0  10   0
Murfreesboro   58  82  58  80 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        57  81  56  80 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Clements