Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 081756
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1156 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1155 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

 - High chance of snow accumulation and travel impacts Friday
   into early Saturday.

 - Cold temperatures this week with lows in the teens tonight.

 - Temperatures below freezing during nighttime hours next week
   will re-freeze any melted snow, resulting in black ice and
   continued hazardous travel especially on secondary roads.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1104 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

Weak trough bringing enough lift across the area to see some
flurries and light snow, especially near the Plateau where
topographic help can get a bit more snow out of this system. Light
accumulations will be possible especially on the Plateau through
the mid afternoon or so. As the trough continues east, additional
CAA will allow for lows tonight to get into the teens for most of
the area, and possibly even single digits in the more cold prone
areas. Temps expected to warm up above freezing for most during
the day Thursday as upper ridging moves in ahead of the next
trough.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1104 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

Not much has changed in the forecast with the upcoming snow event.
Models have hinted at a slightly further north track, which may
allow for warmer air to move further north as well. This could
allow for some rain to mix in with the snow especially near the AL
border area. Any rain at all would rob moisture for the snow, and
lessen snow amounts in that area. But, a further south track would
limit moisture in northern zones, and lower snow amounts in that
area. So, this is a difficult forecast in regards to snow amounts.
At least the chances for sleet and freezing rain are very low with
current model data. GFS and GEFS remain the most aggressive with
snow and textbook isentropic lift over most of the day Friday,
resulting in the heaviest snowfall. NAM has ramped up a little but
remains below the GFS, and the ECMWF and ensembles remain on the
lower end. Still, 10th percentile snow amounts are in the 1-2 inch
range, and 90th percentile is in the 5 to 7 inch range, so we
still have a decent spread between the models. Still have 3 to 6
inches across the mid state, with some locally higher amounts
possible especially if any mesoscale bands develop with higher
snowfall rates. Some of the CAMs are getting into the onset of the
snow and suggest snow could start a little earlier than
anticipated by a few hours, but either way, Friday will definitely
have travel impacts regardless and travel should be avoided.

Temps will likely be cooler if we get the snowfall currently in
the forecast, so temps will struggle to get above freezing on
Saturday. This will keep roads in rough shape especially on less
traveled and secondary roads. Lows Saturday night will be in the
teens, but there may be some relief Sunday with weak ridging and
getting temps to the upper 30s. But another weak Midwest trough
will swing through Sunday night into Monday, and could bring some
flurries/light snow to the area. At the very least it will bring
cloud cover, so any help from the sun on the roads doesn`t look
likely. Lows in the teens/20s are expected each night next week,
which any melting will result in re-freezing, keeping travel
difficult with black ice on any cleared roads.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

Visible satellite imagery and upstream sfc obs indicate low
clouds/MVFR CIGS should begin to clear out from west to east over
the next few hours, but guidance indicates low clouds will stick
around at CSV through most of the night. Light north-northwest
winds will decrease overnight, and may become calm at times, then
after daybreak tomorrow become light and variable/southeasterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      33  18  37  26 /  10   0   0  60
Clarksville    29  16  36  25 /   0   0   0  60
Crossville     29  11  34  19 /  20  10   0  30
Columbia       34  16  38  25 /   0   0   0  70
Cookeville     29  14  34  22 /  20  10   0  40
Jamestown      26  11  33  18 /  20  10   0  20
Lawrenceburg   35  15  39  25 /   0   0   0  70
Murfreesboro   34  15  37  23 /  10  10   0  60
Waverly        34  16  39  27 /   0   0   0  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night
for TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnwell
LONG TERM....Barnwell
AVIATION.....05