690
FXUS64 KOHX 180349
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
949 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Not a whole lot going on at update time. There are a couple sprigs
of rain on radar coming out of West TN, but even if they do
produce a few minutes of pavement wetters here in the mid-state,
they likely won`t register in any rain buckets. Otherwise, partly
cloudy and mild out there with brief, isolated patches of fog in
any area that sees an extended period of clearing between the
clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Upper level ridge is built over the southeast with surface high
pressure just to our east. This will bring great weather for this
Sunday with mild highs pushing into the upper 60s to lower 70s.
High clouds will be moving through but we will still get to enjoy
some sunshine. As we head into the overnight it will remain quiet
with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Overall fog chances look
low and we will continue to see high clouds but still maybe some
patchy stuff in the typical fog prone areas.

We will get to enjoy one more quiet day on Monday with mild highs
once again in the low to mid 70s. An upper level low will be
lifting out of the Baja of CA with a low deepening over the
Plains. This will bring weak warm air advection to our area and
more cloud cover. It does look to remain dry during the day
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

We are going to be in for some big changes during the extended
period of the forecast. Upper level trough and deep low will
continue to lift into the Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday.
This will push a cold front into Middle TN. Showers ahead of the
cold front will start to push into the western part of the area
late Monday, mainly after midnight. They will continue to push
east during the night into Tuesday morning. Showers will gradually
end from west to east during the afternoon and evening. This low
will be very dynamic bringing a lot of deep layer shear to our
area but we will be lacking instability keeping severe chances
away and even thunderstorm chances low. Still may see a few
rumbles of thunder with activity ahead of the front. Cooler air
will build in behind the front and that will bring some cooling
Wednesday.

An upper level low will then develop over the Great Lakes mid-
week. This will bring us a push of much cooler air Thursday into
next weekend. Models always struggle with exact placement and
timing of upper level lows but we should start to slowly see it
push south and east later Wednesday into Thursday. This will bring
some scattered showers mainly to the eastern part of the area.
Cold air will continue to filter in Wednesday night with much
cooler highs by Thursday afternoon only reaching the mid 40s to
lower 50s. We will also see an increased pressure gradient over
the region bringing breezy winds Wednesday and Thursday. Wind
gusts up to 35 mph will be possible. This will make it feel very
unpleasant and even colder. Moisture will be limited with this
upper level low over our area but we could see some snow flakes
mix in with any showers over the Plateau Thursday morning and
again Thursday evening. No snow accumulation and even the chance
of seeing snow is low with the NBM giving the Plateau a 10-30%
chance of seeing snow mix in.

We will remain in cool northwest flow over the weekend as
ridging builds to our west. This will keep it cool with highs
staying in the 40s to lower 50s. Overnight lows starting Wednesday
night will be chilly in the 30s with some upper 20s over the
Plateau. Nashville has yet to see a freeze this season, the NBM
gives Nashville about a 40% chance of a freeze this weekend. Other
areas outside of Nashville have much higher chances of seeing a
freeze.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 943 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Through the rest of the night, high pressure located east of
Middle Tennessee will continue to bring VFR conditions with light
SSE winds. One exception will be brief episodes of fog at SRB.
Scattered to broken mid and high clouds will move overhead.

VFR conditions are expected daytime Monday into Monday evening.
South winds will gradually increase to around 10KT. An approaching
front will begin to bring some vicinity showers to CKV by the end
of the taf period. Showers will spread across all of Middle TN
shortly after 19/06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      53  74  62  72 /  10  10  90  80
Clarksville    54  72  62  73 /  10  10  90  60
Crossville     44  67  50  62 /   0   0  50  90
Columbia       50  74  61  70 /  10  10  90  80
Cookeville     49  70  56  66 /   0   0  60  90
Jamestown      46  67  52  65 /   0   0  50  90
Lawrenceburg   49  73  60  69 /  10   0  90  80
Murfreesboro   50  74  59  70 /  10  10  80  90
Waverly        54  72  62  72 /  10  10  90  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Unger
SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....13