299
FXUS64 KOHX 061126
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
626 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

- A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 3 a.m. for portions of
  Middle Tennessee south of I-40.

- The majority of Middle Tennessee not under the Tornado Watch has
  transitioned exclusively to a flooding threat. Numerous Flash
  Flood Warnings are already in effect.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 936 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

A surface boundary currently bisects Middle Tennessee from
northeast to southwest. The deepest moisture is situated along
and behind the boundary, and widespread rain with embedded storms
is expected to last the night and well into the day tomorrow.
Hourly rainfall rates are under 1/2" most areas, and even under
1/4" in quite a few spots, although higher rainfall rates are
still occurring with the heavier cells. At this time, rainfall
estimates across northwest Middle Tennessee for this entire event
(going back to Wednesday) range from 5 to 11 inches across much of
the northwest half of the mid state, with amounts falling off
sharply in areas to the south and east of Nashville. Although it
has begun to push eastward, the surface boundary is still taking
its time exiting the region; it probably won`t shift east of the
Cumberland Plateau until sometime around mid-day Sunday. River
flooding will likely continue into at least the first part of next
week. Much cooler air is working its way into the area even now;
CKV is already down to 54F, and high temperatures tomorrow will
range from the mid 50s to low 70s due to the position of the slow-
moving front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 936 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

Fortunately, the weather pattern for much of next week will be
blessedly benign, and that will give us the chance to start drying
out. We probably won`t see full sunshine again until Tuesday, and
Wednesday should be much the same. We won`t re-introduce any PoPs
until maybe Thursday for a fast-moving, low-QPF frontal passage
that should be gone by the start of next weekend. The coolest
mornings look to be Tuesday and Wednesday, when we can look
forward to a widespread frost/freeze. After that, we`ll start to
warm back up.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

We will see see IFR conditions through the TAF period due to low
cigs OVC 005-009. Steady rain will push out of eastern areas over
the next few hours and then we will see lingering showers across
the area through the afternoon. Northerly winds up to 12 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      64  43  61  35 /  70  20   0   0
Clarksville    55  38  61  33 /  60  10   0   0
Crossville     67  42  52  30 / 100  50  10   0
Columbia       66  42  59  35 /  70  20   0   0
Cookeville     67  41  55  31 / 100  40   0   0
Jamestown      67  40  54  28 / 100  40   0   0
Lawrenceburg   69  43  58  35 /  70  20   0   0
Murfreesboro   67  42  59  33 /  80  30   0   0
Waverly        56  39  60  34 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TNZ005>011-023>031-
056>063-075-077-093>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Mueller