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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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821 FXUS64 KOHX 301141 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 641 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tonight) Issued at 206 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Radar this morning shows widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms popping up along and north of I-40. This activity is occurring ahead of a cold front currently across the Midwest that will sink southward later today and tonight. A very humid airmass is in place across the midstate this morning with dewpoints in the 70s to near 80, so anticipating additional scattered showers and storms to bubble up through the morning mainly over our northern half. By midday into the afternoon, more widespread showers and storms are expected to develop along and south of I-40 per the HRRR model, before all activity moves south of the area this evening thanks to the incoming front. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values peaking near 2000 J/Kg in our south this afternoon with very high PWAT values well over 2 inches. Therefore, even though we are not outlooked by SPC, some of the storms this afternoon could get strong with damaging wet microburst winds possible. Precipitation and associated cloud cover today will keep temperatures down considerably from yesterday with highs only in the 80s to low 90s. Subsequently, heat index values look to stay well below our widespread 105+ criteria except perhaps in our southwest counties - so I`ve trimmed the north and east sides of the Heat Advisory accordingly in coordination with MEG and HUN. Regardless, will still be hot and very humid throughout Middle Tennessee today. Much drier and cooler air will filter into the region tonight with dewpoints falling into the 50s, so temperatures will see a dramatic change from the past few nights with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 206 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Monday and Monday night both look fantastic thanks to the cool and dry airmass arriving from the north, with temperatures running well below normal for the first part of July. Highs are only expected to reach the upper 70s to mid 80s on Monday, with lows once again dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s. Unfortunately this brief cooldown will be shortlived as an H5 ridge centered over the Arklatex builds eastward into the Tennessee Valley, with the heat and a gradual return of deeper low level moisture arriving for Tuesday. Highs will be 5-10 degrees above Monday`s readings in the mid 80s to mid 90s, with lows Tuesday night in the mid 60s to mid 70s. The upper ridge will remain in place for Wednesday before shifting south of the state the rest of the week as the upper level jet stream sinks southward into the Midwest. This pattern will favor continued heat and humidity through the extended forecast but not as hot as we have seen the past couple of weeks, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s. There will also be a notable increase in rain chances, with chance to likely pops from Thursday through Saturday. By Sunday, another weak cold front is currently indicated by 00Z guidance to move through the region, which should lower or briefly stop our rain chances towards the end of the current forecast period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Not many changes in thinking from the 06Z TAF. For the most part VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. A cold front is working its way through the mid south and Tennessee. It is summertime and cold fronts tend to loose umph this time of year. Some TS continue to be possible this morning and into the early afternoon with this front. Confidence is not all that great in the storms lasting too long in one place so indicated the best time with P6SM -SHRA/VCTS. The only way conditions won/t stay VFR at a TAF site is if a thunderstorms passes directly over a terminal. In this case the storms should move in such that they won/t be long lived. Winds will be W/NW and swing around to N with the weak frontal passage. High resolution models are still indicating some gusty winds after sunset /after 01/00Z/. Have included gusts up to 20kts after 22Z for BNA/MQY/CKV. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 91 64 86 64 / 60 10 0 0 Clarksville 88 61 83 60 / 50 0 0 0 Crossville 87 57 80 57 / 70 20 0 0 Columbia 92 63 84 60 / 70 10 0 0 Cookeville 87 59 79 59 / 70 30 0 0 Jamestown 85 57 78 57 / 70 20 0 0 Lawrenceburg 92 62 84 60 / 70 10 0 0 Murfreesboro 92 62 85 60 / 70 10 0 0 Waverly 89 62 82 61 / 50 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening for Bedford-Giles-Lawrence-Lewis-Marshall-Maury-Wayne. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION.....12