334
FXUS64 KOHX 052318
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
618 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 615 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

- After several cooler than normal days, temperatures will climb
  to normal levels late this week. Humidity will be tolerable.

- A 20 to 40 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms most
  days through the forecast period. The severe storm threat is
  very low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1110 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

No big changes or surprises have come to the forecast today. A
broad, weak trough over the region was keeping our temperatures
several degrees cooler than normal with more clouds than usual
and generally low coverage of diurnal showers. Much greater shower
and thunderstorm coverage was noted from the Gulf coast to the
Carolinas where deep moisture was present with converging onshore
flow.

Our forecast will stay much the same for tonight into Wednesday
under the weak, sluggish trough. Skies will be partly to mostly
cloudy with patchy overnight fog. Afternoons will bring generally
isolated showers or brief storms. Lows will be mostly in the mid
to upper 60s with highs Wednesday mostly mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1110 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Late week through the weekend, the trough will lift away as a strong
ridge centered over the southwest states expands eastward. The
ridge will remain centered well to our west, but its increasing influence
will help raise temperatures. Many areas will climb just over 90
each day this weekend. Humidity will be tolerable by August
standards, so heat index values should stay below triple digits
this weekend. Those index values may crack 100 next Monday and
Tuesday. There will be enough low level moisture for daily chances
for showers and storms, mostly in the 20 to 40 percent range. As
temps warm up, instability will increase bringing potential for a
few brief "strong" storms with heavy downpours and gusty winds.
The threat for widespread or organized severe wx will remain very
low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

VFR conditions currently prevail, but cigs and vis are expected to
start falling after 06Z tonight. Look for CSV/SRB to catch the
worst of it with LIFR to VLIFR cats from 09Z to 13Z with these
slowly improving back to VFR by early afternoon. MQY/CKV should
see some MVFR fog after 08Z. Winds will be light and vrb.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      71  89  71  90 /  10  20  10  20
Clarksville    69  89  69  90 /  10  20  10  10
Crossville     64  82  64  82 /  20  40  30  50
Columbia       67  88  68  89 /  10  20  10  20
Cookeville     66  84  66  85 /  10  30  20  30
Jamestown      65  83  65  83 /  20  40  20  40
Lawrenceburg   66  87  67  87 /  10  30  10  30
Murfreesboro   69  89  68  90 /  10  30  10  30
Waverly        67  88  68  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Unger