626
FXUS64 KOHX 110514
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1214 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1208 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

- Dry conditions continue through next week

- Gradual warming trend with highs back into the mid 80s next week

- Despite another prolonged dry stretch, afternoon relative
  humidity values should remain sufficiently high to prevent any
  fire weather concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Calm conditions persist across Middle TN tonight as a centered
area of high pressure sits just off to our northwest.
Temperatures will cool into the upper 40s to low 50s overnight
with areas of patchy dense fog. The HREF is giving portions of
the southern CWA and along the Plateau a 60% to 70% chance of
visibility dropping below a 1/2 mile with only pockets of dense
fog elsewhere across the CWA. Be cautious of this overnight if
have to travel. Saturday`s forecast continues our dry and warm
stint with less cloud coverage as the low over the Great Lakes
pushes ever so slightly east. Afternoon temperatures will in turn
be a touch warmer, near 80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

The long term synoptic pattern is a busy and progressive one, though
Middle TN`s position in it all favors continued dry and warming
conditions. A large ridge present over the central US will
gradually build east through the week, keeping rain chances near
0% with a gradual warming trend. With northwesterly flow aloft,
instances of increased high cloud cover will be likely, most
notably mid- week when an upper level disturbance rounds the base
of the ridge, moving through the Ohio River Valley. No rain
expected with this feature, but a temporary slight decrease in
temperature looks to follow it. Overall, temperatures in the long
term will be a few degrees above-normal with highs in the low to
mid 80s, but not too far off from seasonal norms. For context, the
normal high at Nashville for this time of year is 76. With the
prolonged period of no rain, this will likely exacerbate ongoing
drought conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

High pressure will remain over the area through the taf period.

Radiation fog will impact all terminals overnight. BNA will have
brief MVFR vsby around daybreak. Elsewhere, mainly MVFR vsbys will
mix with episodes of LIFR cigs/vsbys.

After 13Z, all sites will report VFR with northeast winds around 6
kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      79  51  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    79  49  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     71  45  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       79  47  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     74  47  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      71  46  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   76  46  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   78  47  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        78  50  78  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....13