593
FXUS64 KOHX 161105
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
605 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 603 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms will return to Middle Tennessee this
  weekend. There is low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms
  in areas near the Tennessee River Saturday evening into Saturday
  night.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through the week, peaking
  in the mid to upper 80s on Saturday.

- Look for significantly cooler temperatures from Sunday onward.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

A surface ridge remains situated just to the northwest of Middle
Tennessee tonight, with high pressure also situated aloft. The
air mass remains quite stable across the region. The evening
sounding from OHX shows an absence of any moist layers, although
precipitable water has crept up to 1.28", which sits between the
75th and 90th percentiles climatologically. However, this is more
a result of the air mass being so warm. Overnight, we don`t
expect any appreciable radiation fog, and afternoon temperatures
tomorrow will be similar today`s. The forecast remains dry through
Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

A developing cold front will approach Middle Tennessee on
Saturday, with fropa expected late Saturday and early Sunday. So
PoPs will return to the forecast by Saturday afternoon, with the
best rain and storm chances occurring Saturday evening and
overnight, then tapering off from west to east on Sunday. At this
time, there is a severe weather risk over western portions of the
mid state Saturday evening and maybe Saturday night just ahead of
the actual surface boundary. In addition, there is a marginal to
slight excessive rainfall risk Saturday and Saturday night in
areas mainly west of the Cumberland Plateau. The 01Z NBM gives a
34% probability of 1+" of rainfall at BNA from 12Z Saturday until
12Z Sunday, with some QPF carrying over into Sunday. However, the
flooding risk at this time appears to be quite low owing to the
speed of this system and the lack of antecedent rainfall. Also, it
is worth mentioning that record high temperatures are possible
Saturday afternoon as warm air piles up ahead of the cold front,
which does tend to occur with systems of this nature during the
cool season. From Sunday onward, temperatures will cool off to
seasonal normals with still some lower rain chances continuing
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals as high pressure
continues to dominate the region. NE winds will be mostly light
(10KT or less), but occasionally gusting to 15KT during the
afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      81  53  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    80  52  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     72  46  74  56 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       81  53  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     74  49  77  59 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      71  45  75  57 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   80  51  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   79  51  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        80  54  82  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....13