193
FXUS64 KOHX 272348
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
648 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 644 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

- Active weather returns this weekend with medium severe weather
  chances late Sunday afternoon/evening. Confidence is increasing
  for areas along and west of I-65 (though all of Middle TN will
  have at least some severe threat).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

We are going to see a great evening and overnight across Middle
TN. High pressure is off to our east and short wave riding builds
in tonight. After seeing warm highs in the 70s we will fall into
the 50s tonight. High clouds will start to build in from the
south towards daybreak as a short wave slowly pushes out of TX,
otherwise mostly clear for the overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1107 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Over the last several hours, very light rain has been seen on
radar over the northeast half of Middle TN. Some of this is
getting to the ground, but at best we`re talking about a hundredth
or two. Most are barely reaching a trace. In the last hour,
however, radar returns have diminished and this trend is expected
to continue. Over the rest of the mid-state, nary a cloud can be
seen on the visible satellite at forecast time. Of course, without
the clouds in this area, temperatures have started to warm nicely
into the upper 50s under this northwest flow aloft. At the
surface, winds have turned to the southeast since yesterday and
should become southerly by this afternoon. This is going to signal
the start of a slow but certain moistening trend over the next
couple of days. Because of this, look for a much warmer start to
the day tomorrow and even warmer afternoon temperatures. Most will
be the 70s by tomorrow afternoon and BNA might even touch 80. See
where I`m going here? Yeah, rain`s on the way.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1107 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

By first thing Saturday morning, a trough over the southern US will
begin to push to the northeast and bring rain chances into our
western counties, then across the rest of the mid-state throughout
the day on Saturday. Forecast soundings have been very consistent
showing no threat of severe weather on Saturday. Saturated soundings
along with little to no CAPE suggest high chance of showers, low
chance of even getting thunder. Saturday shouldn`t be a complete
washout, but scattered showers will be around throughout the day.

As Saturday`s activity moves east of Middle TN Saturday night, we
remain squarely in southerly surface flow ahead of another upper
level system that is forecast to push into the center of the country
Sunday morning. Because of the southerly surface flow and us being
in the first prolonged warm sector of any system so far this season,
instability is expected to flourish Sunday afternoon. Values
north of 1500 J/Kg are running in the 50-60% likelihood. This
would be more instability than we`ve seen all spring. Along with
healthy shear/helicity values, curved hodographs and mid-level
lapse rates running between 7-8 deg/Km, all severe modes would be
possible. There`s a couple of interesting tidbits to discuss
still: first, forecast soundings are capped throughout the day on
Sunday. That`s not a great thing. Breaking that cap in the early
evening with the front closing in on the area could make for
explosive storms. However, number 2 needs to be factored in and
that is: there is a trend of a later arrival over the last 24
hours in our larger scale models. Potentially late evening and
close to midnight before storms break across the TN River. This
could limit some amount of severity. I`m not jumping completely on
that bandwagon just yet. We will start getting into our CAMs and
hi-res guidance tomorrow, which will offer a clearer picture on
timing. For now, we`ll maintain a late afternoon/early evening
arrival on the TN river with storms traversing the rest of the
mid-state through the rest of the evening hours. Location-wise, I
like areas along and west of I-65 for the most severe threat. That
doesn`t mean there won`t be a severe threat for the rest of
Middle TN; just lower. Bottom line: remain weather aware as we
head towards Sunday. It`s worth monitoring closely.

After Sunday, we should be quiet and dry for a few days. Extended
guidance shows our next system arriving in the Wednesday-Thursday
time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

No changes with this update. TAFs remain VFR through the period
with S winds easing tonight then increasing through Friday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      56  81  61  77 /   0  10  10  40
Clarksville    56  80  61  75 /   0  20  20  50
Crossville     50  75  57  73 /   0  10   0  20
Columbia       55  78  61  75 /   0  10  10  30
Cookeville     52  77  59  74 /   0  10   0  30
Jamestown      51  77  58  74 /   0  10   0  20
Lawrenceburg   55  78  61  74 /   0  10  10  30
Murfreesboro   54  80  60  77 /   0  10  10  30
Waverly        57  78  62  73 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Mueller
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Cravens