005
FXUS64 KOHX 061122
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
622 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 619 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

- Expect mostly sunny skies on Sunday and continued hot. Isolated
  thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and early
  evening.

- Better rain and storm chances will return to Middle Tennessee
  starting on Monday with medium to high chances persisting
  throughout the week. The risk of severe storms is very low.

- Afternoon heat indices will reach the upper 90s to low 100s
  today through Tuesday across most of Middle Tennessee west of
  the Cumberland Plateau, with the heat easing up starting on
  Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

It`s been a quiet night weatherwise across Middle Tennessee as we
gear up for another hot and mostly sunny day. Afternoon heat
indices are likely to top out in the upper 90s to low 100s across
most of the mid state west of the Cumberland Plateau, so this will
keep us below Heat Advisory criteria. We do expect isolated
storms to develop later this afternoon and maybe into the evening,
as there is plenty of instability present. The chance of severe
storms is very low, but any storms that do develop will be capable
of producing strong wind gusts, along with frequent lightning and
high rainfall rates. There are better rain and storm chances
starting tomorrow as the high pressure that has dominated our
weather pattern starts to loosen its grip.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Clouds have mostly cleared out of the area and temperatures have
dropped into the 70s. Things will be mostly quiet overnight with the
potential for patchy dense fog development, especially over areas
that received rain today. A weak shortwave will push just north of
Middle TN tomorrow, mostly bringing a bit more cloud cover to our
northwest counties. Another round of diurnually-driven thunderstorms
will be possible tomorrow as we heat into the mid 90s, however,
large dew points depressions at the surface are noted with very
limited moisture aloft, so most will likely stay dry. Similar to
tonight, patchy dense fog will be likely overnight Sunday into
Monday. Upper-level troughing will continue to push down into the
area come Monday, bringing an increase in rain chances across all
of Middle TN, around 30-50%. Looking at the NAMNest, while
thunderstorms remain scattered, it appears a boundary will be
moving through the area, providing more widespread coverage than
we`ve seen in previous days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Tuesday is more or less the same setup as Monday with afternoon
storm chances. Model soundings aren`t too impressive in terms of
severe potential with lapse rates and shear remaining low. Bulk
shear is around 15 kts and mid-level lapse rates are ~6 C/km.
There is a considerable amount of CAPE (~2000 J/kg), DCAPE (~850
J/kg), and higher than average PWATs (~1.90"), outlining that the
biggest threat with storms this week will be gusty winds caused by
heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and localized flash
flooding. Wednesday and Thursday will be the best chance of
rain/thunderstorms with the highest rain chances lingering around
40-60%. Point soundings show a little bit more shear building in
during this time, though not enough for a widespread severe
threat, however, a stronger storm or two cannot be ruled out. Near
the end of the work week, a front pushes through, cooling
temperatures off a bit. Into the weekend, expect diurnally-driven
storms, classic summertime activity.

With this week`s highs being in the mid 90s, light winds, and high
PWATs it`s safe to say it will be an uncomfortable week. The heat
index is something to keep an eye on this week as we might come
close to heat advisory criteria (heat index values near 105).

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

High pressure will maintain its grip on Middle Tennessee`s weather
pattern for one more day. There is some morning fog that should
dissipate by 1230Z. Afterwards, look for VFR wx the remainder of
the day, with light winds across the region. There are very low
PoPs during the afternoon and early evening, but not enough to
warrant mention in any of the TAFs just yet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      95  74  95  74 /  20  10  40  10
Clarksville    93  73  91  74 /  10  10  60  20
Crossville     88  67  89  68 /  20  10  40  10
Columbia       93  71  93  72 /  10   0  40  10
Cookeville     90  70  90  70 /  10  10  40  10
Jamestown      89  68  89  68 /  10  10  30  10
Lawrenceburg   93  71  92  71 /  10   0  40  10
Murfreesboro   94  71  94  72 /  20   0  40  10
Waverly        93  71  91  72 /  10  10  50  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Rose