090
FXUS64 KOHX 010709
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
209 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 113 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Cold front has pushed south of Middle Tennessee this morning with
cooler and drier air gradually filtering in from the north.
Dewpoints have fallen into the 60s across most of the forecast
area, with 50s dewpoints just north of the border, so lows are
still anticipated to reach the upper 50s to mid 60s near or just
after sunrise. Today will feel quite un-July-like thanks to this
cooler and drier airmass, with highs only expected to reach the
upper 70s to the mid 80s - which is up to 5 degrees below normal
for early July.

Unfortunately, this nice weather will not last long as a strong
upper level ridge with 500mb heights near 596dm shifts eastward
and centers itself across the state on Tuesday. This will bring
both the heat and humidity back in earnest, with highs back into
the 90s for most of the midstate and dewpoints rising into the
60s and 70s through the day. No precipitation is anticipated
though due to the suppression from the upper ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 113 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Both the heat and low level moisture will continue increasing
into Wednesday as the upper ridge remains in place and southerly
flow deepens across the state. Highs are anticipated to be a few
degrees above Tuesday`s readings with near 90 on the Plateau and
low to mid 90s - and possibly some upper 90s - elsewhere. The
increased heat and humidity on Wednesday looks to bring heat index
readings up into the 105-110 range from many areas west of the
Plateau, so a Heat Advisory appears likely. A few isolated showers
and storms are possible during the afternoon as well, but once
again the strength of the upper ridge should keep these limited.

Heights aloft will begin falling on July 4th as the upper level
ridge sinks to our south due to the main jet stream edging down
into the Midwest. Even so, still appears quite hot and humid with
temperatures only slightly below Wednesday`s levels, and another
Heat Advisory will likely be needed. However, guidance shows a
weak shortwave trough passing eastward across the region on the
north side of the upper ridge, which should give us decent rain
chances during the day with chance to likely pops. NBM pops
appear too high compared to the GFS/ECMWF and nudged them down
somewhat. Most guidance shows shower/storm coverage diminishing
significantly by evening, so hopefully most July 4th activities
won`t have to also deal with nature`s fireworks.

Upper level ridging will continue to weaken from Friday through
the weekend as an upper trough digs southward through the Midwest.
This pattern will push another cold front into the midstate on
Saturday with the front making it through the cwa by Sunday.
Therefore expect fairly high pops for Friday and Saturday before
rain chances drop to just low chances by Sunday and Monday.
Temperatures will also be knocked down another notch with highs
only in the mid 80s to low 90s over the weekend. By early next
week, temps will start going back up once again, but a persistant
upper trough over the Great Lakes and Midwest will give us daily
chances for summertime showers and storms.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

TAFs are VFR. High pressure is currently building in from the
north following yesterdays fropa. Winds will stay up a few knots
owing to a relatively strong pressure gradient.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      85  64  94  76 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    82  59  93  75 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     80  59  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       86  61  94  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     79  61  88  70 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      79  59  87  68 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   85  61  92  73 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   86  61  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        82  60  93  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....Rose