174
FXUS64 KOHX 280519
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1219 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1218 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

- Highs warm closer to normal Thursday into next week.

- Generally dry pattern, but very low rain chances in the far
  southern counties Thursday into Friday. Low rain chances mostly
  southeast half Sunday into next week.

- Low RH values and dry fuels will cause localized marginal fire
  weather conditions with worsening drought levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Long wave troughing is set up over the Northeast US with a ridge
to our west. Surface high pressure is in place over the region but
will weaken on Thursday as a short wave spins around the apex of
the ridge to our west. This has brought high clouds to the region
and those clouds will stick around. The main forcing with the
short wave will remain to our west but we could see a few light
showers late afternoon into the evening mainly in the far
southwest part of the area. Any shower activity will have to
fight large amounts of dry air in the mid-levels before producing
rain at the surface. Highs will be similar to Wednesday pushing
into the low to mid 80s. Dew points will remain low but should not
fall as low as they did on Wednesday, we should see them in the
mid 40s to low 50s.

Not a lot of change is expected as we head into Friday. The short
wave will be pushing into the Southeast US. As it does it will
start to advect higher dew points north but they will still remain
comfortable for late August in TN staying under 60. A few showers
may sneak into the far southern part of the area during the
evening and early overnight but chances are very low. Highs will
start to tick up some also on Friday pushing back into the mid to
upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

The upper level ridge will retreat further west and amplify over
the West Coast as troughing remains in place over the eastern US.
This will keep the comfortable air mass in place into next week.
Highs will remain in the mid to upper 80s over the weekend and
into next week. A few short waves will be embed in the long wave
trough and will bring low shower chances at times mainly early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast. Winds will be
around 5 kts or less with a variable direction.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      86  59  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    86  56  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     77  54  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       84  57  88  60 /   0   0  10  10
Cookeville     78  56  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      78  54  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   82  56  85  59 /   0   0  10  10
Murfreesboro   84  57  88  59 /   0   0   0  10
Waverly        84  57  87  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Reagan