520
FXUS64 KOHX 011727
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1227 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Low clouds have been quite stubborn across much of the Plateau and
southern areas this morning. Things will brighten up this
afternoon for these areas and temps will warm into the 70s.
Already sunny areas west of the Plateau will reach the lower 80s.
Clouds will build up again and there will be a few scattered
showers this afternoon and early evening as a cold front pushes
into the area. That front was showing up nicely on satellite
northwest of Tennesse. Surface observations showed significantly
drier air behind the front with Missouri dew points in the upper
30s and lower 40s vs our muggy dew points in the 60s.

Later tonight, low clouds and areas of fog will form, especially
for the Plateau and south half where the surface boundary will
slow down. Drier post frontal air will mitigate fog for our
northwest areas, but low clouds are still likely.

After early morning low clouds and fog lift, Wednesday will turn
into a very nice day with highs in the 70s and mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

The extended forecast will be mostly rain-free with west to
northwest upper level winds. Daytimes through the weekend will be
mainly sunny and warm. Most nights will bring areas of fog,
especially for the Plateau and typical favored valleys.

There will be a couple of cold front passages during the extended
forecast period. The first front could bring a small shower
chance Friday. The front will then reinforce dry air through the
weekend, but it will stay quite warm with weekend highs in the
80s.

The next front will arrive Sunday evening. No rain is expected
with it, but it could bring a nice shot of cooler air with lows in
the 40s and highs in the 70s early next week.

There is a lot of talk about potential tropical wx brewing in the
Gulf of Mexico next week. It looks like the upper air pattern is
expected to keep the TN Valley Region nice and dry, suppressing
any tropical action well to our south.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Low cigs in the east will rise over the next few hours and all
terminals will see VFR conditions this afternoon and evening. A
few showers will be possible this afternoon for eastern terminals.
Low clouds will develop from Nashville east after 06z and will
bring MVFR/IFR cigs. Patchy dense fog will also be possible for
KCSV and KSRB overnight. Cigs and low vis will rise after 16z.
Light northerly winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      59  76  56  83 /  20   0   0   0
Clarksville    53  75  51  81 /  20   0   0   0
Crossville     58  73  52  79 /  20   0   0   0
Columbia       56  76  53  83 /  20   0   0   0
Cookeville     58  72  54  80 /  20   0   0   0
Jamestown      58  72  52  80 /  20   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   58  75  53  83 /  20   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   60  75  54  83 /  20   0   0   0
Waverly        53  75  52  82 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Mueller