804
FXUS64 KOHX 142344
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
644 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 630 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms return this weekend.

- Temperatures will be above normal through the week, peaking in
  the mid 80s on the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Warm, dry, and windy conditions were observed today as our area of
high pressure remains aloft. Temperatures ranged from low 70s to
low 80s across Middle TN today. BNA got up to 81 degrees this
afternoon. As mentioned in yesterday`s afternoon update, winds
were a bit more breezy this afternoon as a thermal trough
developed over the area. Highest wind gusts today were anywhere
between 10 to 22 mph.

This evening, winds are light and temperatures are falling with
the loss of solar radiation. Lows tonight drop into the low 50s
for most, some will see upper 40s across the Plateau. Winds remain
light tonight and with dewpoint depressions around 5 degrees or
so, not seeing much of a chance for widespread fog development.
Wednesday brings another beautiful fall day with dry weather and
temperatures warming into the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds will
remain out of the NE between 5-10 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Upper level ridge is set up over the central part of the country.
This is bringing us quiet weather with clear skies. Highs this
afternoon will push into the mid 70s to around 80 which is a bit
above average from this time of year. Overnight lows will cool to
seasonal norms falling into the upper 40s to lower 50s. We won`t
see much change in the forecast as we head into Wednesday as we
remain on the eastern part of the ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Quiet weather is going to continue for the start of the extended
forecast but we will see some weather as we head into the weekend.
Until then the upper level ridge will build east keeping warm and
dry conditions in place through the end of the week. Highs will
remain in the mid 70s to mid 80s with lows in the upper 40s to mid
50s.

The weather will become a bit more active over the weekend. An
upper level low that is currently bringing an early season rain to
California will lift into Canada on Saturday pushing a cold front
south into the Plains and Middle TN. This system will be more
dynamic with bulk shear pushing to 30+ knots and dew points in the
upper 50s to mid 60s ahead of the front. There is uncertainty
with the timing of the front and how much CAPE we see build in
ahead of the front in our area. Right now parameters for more
organized thunderstorms and the better forcing is off to our west
over southern MO into northern AK and into western TN during the
afternoon when CAPE is highest. Some of the ensembles and clusters
do show a faster frontal passage which would push the threat for
organized thunderstorms more east and possibly into our far west.
Will have to keep an eye on trends if that happens but for now the
severe threat will overall remain to the west of the TN River
with a very low threat for a strong storm or two from the TN River
east to about Nashville. Timing right now would favor the
evening. The front will continue to push east through Middle TN
Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Highs will remain warm on Saturday pushing into the upper 70s to
mid 80s but cooler air starts to filter in behind the front on
Sunday. Highs will fall back into the 70s. Quiet and dry weather
returns next week as an upper level ridge slowly builds back over
the region. This will also bring a gradual warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

VFR conditions expected for all mid-state terminals over the next
24 hours. Winds will be light from the northeast at 10 kts or
less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      53  82  57  80 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    52  82  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     48  75  49  73 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       51  82  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     50  76  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      49  74  49  71 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   50  80  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   51  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        51  80  55  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Cravens
SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Unger