424
FXUS64 KOHX 010338
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1038 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1021 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

- Rain and thunderstorm chances continue through today. Frequent
  lightning and heavy rainfall are possible with stronger storms.

- Temperatures warm back well into the 90s late week with drier
  weather currently expected for Independence Day and the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

A cluster of showers and storms are ongoing along the Mississippi
River in West Tennessee. High res guidance wants to squash the
activity as it moves eastward toward the Tennessee River, but the
environment ahead of those storms is favorable for those storms to
continue with MLCAPE values ranging from 1500-2000 J/kg. If the
storms do hold together, I am not expecting anything severe.

More storms will develop late Tuesday morning ahead of the mid
level trough axis and surface cold front. The setup has not
changed with ample moisture ahead of the front with PWAT values
approaching 2", weak mid level lapse rates, and 10-15 kts of
effective bulk shear. This should translate to storms that are a
little more progressive which should keep the flood threat low,
but rainfall rates will be high at times. Severe storms are not
expected given the weak lapse rates and low shear.

The cold front will clear Middle TN by 03z Wednesday with a drier
pattern settling into the region. Some patchy fog is likely prior
to dawn on Wednesday. The air mass on Wednesday will be less humid
with dew points in the 60s instead of the 70s and highs in the
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

The upper pattern will see a upper ridge strengthening as we go
from Thursday into the weekend. This means temperatures will climb
into the low to mid 90s for Independence Day with plenty of
sunshine. The long weekend will be hot and dry with the upper
high in control. Some low diurnal storm chances may return as we
get into the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Showers and thunderstorms have dissipated near SRB and CSV, and
skies are clearing elsewhere. Guidance suggests MVFR cigs ahead
of a front by the early morning hours, with IFR potential at
SRB/CSV, which I`ve handled with TEMPOs. Lower cigs should stick
around for most of the morning with some improvement expected by
17-18z. By then, convection should start to increase in coverage
with embedded TS near the front. I`ve kept PROB30s in for now,
best chances are at SRB/CSV. Winds remain SW to W during the
afternoon at 5-8 kts. Once the front passes through, winds will
shift to NW, and we`ll be treated with drier air which should
result in less active weather for a few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  87  69  90 /  30  70   0   0
Clarksville    73  86  67  89 /  40  40   0   0
Crossville     67  81  65  84 /  40  90  30   0
Columbia       71  86  67  87 /  30  70  10   0
Cookeville     70  82  66  85 /  30  90  20   0
Jamestown      69  81  65  85 /  40  90  30   0
Lawrenceburg   70  85  67  87 /  40  70  10   0
Murfreesboro   71  87  67  89 /  30  80  10   0
Waverly        71  85  67  88 /  30  40   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Sizemore