162
FXUS64 KOHX 300627
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
127 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 114 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Surface obs this morning show a mild and humid morning across the
midstate with temperatures and dewpoints in the 60s. Dewpoints
depressions are near zero areawide, and have seen occasional
dense fog at a few stations. Remains uncertain if we will see
widespread dense fog due to scattered cloud cover, but if so a
dense fog advisory may be necessary for parts or all of the area
by sunrise.

Otherwise, satellite imagery early this morning shows the upper
low / remnants of Helene continues to spin away across Middle
Tennessee and is currently centered near Celina. Guidance
indicates the upper low will gradually shift northeast away from
the area today as another upper trough swings through the
Northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Despite this, anticipating
another mostly cloudy and humid day with a few showers rotating
around the area. However, with some sunshine highs should reach
the 70s areawide this afternoon.

The upper low will finally leave the region on Tuesday as the
next upper trough approaches through the Midwest, forcing a cold
front through the area late in the day. With a moist airmass
still in place, isolated showers appear possible once again
especially during the afternoon hours. However, more sunshine is
anticipated on Tuesday so highs will reach the mid 70s to low
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 114 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

An extended dry period appears likely for the rest of the week
into the first weekend of October as northwest flow remains in
place through the extended forecast. Highs will be in the 70s/80s
each day with lows in the 50s. No precip chances appear warranted
until potentially early next week as the next cold front moves
through the region. Will also have to keep an eye on the tropics
as global models indicate another tropical system may form in the
Gulf, but the current forecast pattern would keep any such system
well to our south.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Excessive rainfall over the past several days has resulted in a
saturated ground, and as a result of the dampness and the calm
wind, we expect dense fog and low stratus to develop shortly and
to last into the morning before gradually dissipated. LIFR and
VLIFR conditions are probable during the overnight and early
morning period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      79  65  82  61 /  20   0  20   0
Clarksville    79  63  81  55 /  20   0  10   0
Crossville     72  56  75  57 /  20  10  10   0
Columbia       79  62  81  57 /  20  10  20   0
Cookeville     73  59  77  59 /  20  10  10   0
Jamestown      72  59  75  59 /  20  10  20  10
Lawrenceburg   77  61  80  58 /  20   0  20   0
Murfreesboro   79  63  81  59 /  20   0  20   0
Waverly        78  62  81  55 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....Rose