501
FXUS64 KOHX 111737
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1237 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

- Afternoon rain chances increase this week with highest rain
  chances of 50 to 70% on Wednesday. Severe weather threat is very
  low.

- High temperatures will be slightly above normal over the next
  week. Heat index values will reach around 100 for many areas
  through this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

A high pressure system near the East Coast continues to gradually
move off shore, so its influence is starting to lessen across
Middle TN today. Light E to SE winds continue and there`s been an
uptick in moisture per mesoanalysis and our 12z RAOB. However,
mid-level dry air and subsidence continue to be an issue which is
inhibiting higher rain chances despite increasing PWs. Convection
this afternoon is favoring the Cumberland Plateau where the best
moisture availability will be through the afternoon. PoPs today
are 10-30%. Otherwise, we`re looking hot and somewhat humid today
with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s once again.

Moisture will continue to increase through the area tomorrow with
a more southerly low-level flow extending into TN as shortwave
moves into the Ohio Valley. HREF mean PWs of 1.8-2.0" suggest
more scattered convection area-wide, with higher coverage
possible. PoPs are generally 40-60% tomorrow. Afternoon
temperatures should be knocked down a couple degrees as a result
of clouds/rain, but it will be more muggy.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Wednesday continues to be the most active day of the week from a
rain/storm perspective. Sufficient moisture will remain in the
area and the approach of a weakening shortwave trough should help
alleviate mid-level subsidence. A diffuse surface front will also
move into the area from the northwest. With an overall increase in
forcing and instability, as well as a 20-30 kts of westerly flow
aloft, we`ll need to watch for a few stronger storms in the
afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible. No organized
severe weather or flash flooding is expected at this time,
however. Scattered showers/storms are also expected on Thursday
with residual effects of these features.

The remainder of the long-term period (Fri-Sun) appears fairly
routine. Temperatures, however, will favor above-normal values
through the weekend with continued humidity. Heat index values in
the low 100s are forecast each afternoon with isolated
showers/storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

VFR conditions continue across Middle TN this afternoon with
sct/bkn cumulus 040-060 and winds now favoring E at 5-7 kts. Winds
become SE this evening with a brief reduction in cloud cover.
However, increasing low-level moisture will support MVFR cigs
after 09z which appear to impact all sites through tomorrow
morning. Convection tomorrow afternoon will need TAF inclusion on
the next cycle, but went ahead with a PROB30 for SRB and CSV.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      75  91  74  93 /  10  40  20  60
Clarksville    74  91  73  92 /  10  40  20  50
Crossville     68  83  68  83 /  20  50  30  70
Columbia       72  90  71  92 /  10  50  20  60
Cookeville     70  85  70  86 /  10  50  30  60
Jamestown      69  84  69  85 /  10  50  30  70
Lawrenceburg   71  88  71  90 /  10  50  20  60
Murfreesboro   72  90  72  91 /  10  60  30  60
Waverly        72  89  71  92 /  20  40  20  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....Sizemore