101
FXUS64 KOHX 191116
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
616 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 613 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

- Calm weekend, but a couple of high temperature records are in
  jeopardy at BNA today and tomorrow.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances return late Sunday into Monday,
  but the threat for severe weather is very low.

- Warm next week with shower and thunderstorm chances. No
  hazardous weather expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1023 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

All is calm this evening across Middle TN. Satellite imagery shows
an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes area while an upper-
level ridge is just off to our east. This has steered a 35-45 knot
850mb jet over Middle TN which was responsible for gusty winds
Friday afternoon. While the strongest wind gusts have lessened
with the loss of daytime mixing, stronger upper-level winds will
keep winds breezy at 10-15 mph overnight.

A mostly calm weekend is still in store. The aforementioned Great
Lakes low will push a cold front south on Saturday, however, this
front stalls just to the north of TN where it will stay through
the weekend. This keeps the area warm and dry both Saturday and
Sunday with highs in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1023 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

By Sunday night and into Monday, an upper-low deepens as it moves
across the southern Rockies and onto the Great Plains along with a
surface low developing over the OK area. This will finally push a
cold front eastward across Middle TN Sunday night and into Monday.
With this front, high chances (60-80%) for rain and thunderstorms
will reenter the forecast. The good news is that the threat for
severe thunderstorms is still very low. CAPE values through the
day Monday increase to around 300-500 J/kg, particularly across
the east ahead of the front. 0-6km shear values near 40 knots
could be enough to support more organized storms, however,
forecast soundings are still not particularly impressive with
long, skinny CAPE profiles not being good for robust updrafts.
Stronger, pulse-like thunderstorms could be capable of producing
small hail and strong winds, but the overall severe weather threat
is still very low.

A relative cooldown arrives behind the front Monday and into
Tuesday, but a more summer-like pattern presents itself by mid-
week with a series of shortwaves bringing additional rounds of
rain and thunderstorms. Best chances for scattered storms will be
each afternoon. Fortunately, with forecast bulk shear values less
than 20 knots, the chance for organized or severe storms is still
low with any activity next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

We`ll have some high clouds around today and tonight, but VFR
conditions are expected for this entire TAF cycle. Southwest winds
will pick up at all terminals by 14-15Z with gusts of 20 kts
expected until about 22-23Z this afternoon before relaxing below
10 kts for the night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      88  65  87  66 /   0   0   0  20
Clarksville    85  64  85  65 /  10  10  10  40
Crossville     84  61  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       87  65  86  66 /   0   0   0  10
Cookeville     84  64  83  65 /   0   0   0  10
Jamestown      85  61  83  63 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   86  65  85  66 /   0   0   0  10
Murfreesboro   88  65  87  67 /   0   0   0  10
Waverly        85  65  84  64 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Unger