661
FXUS64 KOHX 040506
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1206 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1202 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

- A few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible
  Thursday. Gusty winds will be the primary threat.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms Friday evening through
  Saturday before dry weather returns next week.

- Temperatures will peak on Friday in the 90s, and decrease back
  into the 70s and 80s by the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

An upper level low is sitting over the northern Great Lakes. This
will push a cold front south into Middle TN after daybreak. A
few showers and thunderstorms can be expected along and ahead of
the front for the morning hours. Activity along the front will
increase during the afternoon as it pushes south. This will bring
a medium to high chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms to
areas south and east of Nashville. We will see more shear Thursday with
bulk shear 25-35 knots and 1000-2000 j/kg of CAPE. Mid-level lapse
rates won`t be great but given the shear and CAPE we still could
see some strong to severe storms. Gusty winds up to 60 mph would
be the main concern with any strong cells. Locally heavy rain can
also be expected but with somewhat quick storm motion flooding is
not expected to be a concern. Highs ahead of the front will push
into the low to mid 80s.

Thunderstorm activity will diminish by 9 PM and we will see dry
condition Thursday night. Patchy fog will be possible with lows in
the low to mid 60s. Upper level flow will become more zonal on
Friday and that will keep things quiet and mainly dry through the
afternoon. The upper level low that was over the Great Lakes will
slowly move north into Canada and will push another stronger cold
front south later Friday into Saturday. We will see increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday evening into Friday
night. Bulk shear will increase to 30-40 knots by Friday evening
but at this time it looks like we will lack enough instability to
see severe storms. Still can`t rule out isolated gusty winds with
any storms that develop in the early evening, by the overnight
that threat should be very low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

A cold front will be making its way through Middle TN on Saturday.
It will start out in the north with showers and isolated thunderstorms
and move south into the early afternoon. There is some
uncertainty on how much instability we see build in ahead of the
front in the southeast part of the area. Shear will be marginal
for some stronger storms around 25-35 knots or so. If the front is
a bit slower and we see higher instability we could see a few
storms produce gusty winds. Highs Saturday will be cooler in the
low to upper 70s, warmest in southern areas.

Behind the front quiet and cooler weather will settle in as a
strong area of high pressure builds over the Northern Plains and
slowly pushes east into early next week. Highs will be in the mid
to upper 70s with some locations making to around 80 Sunday and
Monday. By the middle of the week the upper level ridge will start
to amplify over the Plains. This will bring a warming trend with
highs pushing back into the mid to upper 80s by the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Conditions tonight will primarily be VFR, however, there is a low
chance for patchy fog in areas that received rain today. Fog will
diminish by 14Z. A front moves through the area Thursday, bringing
additional showers and storms to the area. Storm chances are low
at CKV, but medium to high at BNA, MQY, CSV, and SRB. TEMPO groups
were maintained for best time frame for impacts which may include
heavy downpours, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Winds will
shift from southerly to northwesterly behind the front. Storms
will taper off around 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      87  66  95  64 /  60   0  50  70
Clarksville    83  63  94  59 /  40   0  60  80
Crossville     78  61  86  62 /  70  20  40  50
Columbia       87  65  95  62 /  40   0  30  60
Cookeville     80  62  88  62 /  80  10  40  60
Jamestown      77  61  86  62 /  90  20  40  60
Lawrenceburg   85  64  93  63 /  40  10  30  50
Murfreesboro   87  64  95  63 /  60  10  40  60
Waverly        85  63  94  57 /  30   0  60  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Clements