319
FXUS64 KOHX 010511
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1111 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1111 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

- Our precipitation chances will resume Monday afternoon and will
  continue into Tuesday. Storm total QPF values range from 0.5" to
  1" across Middle Tennessee.

- There are low to medium chances for light snowfall accumulations
  mainly north of I-40 Monday night and early Tuesday, especially
  northwest Middle Tennessee. Chances for 1" or greater
  accumulation are very low (<20%) at this time.

- Temperatures will remain below seasonal norms for the next
  several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1111 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Some high clouds out there right now on satellite across Middle
Tennessee. Radiational cooling should be a bit more successful
tonight, with lows getting into the low 20s and possibly even the
teens on the Cumberland Plateau.

An inverted trough will be entering the mid-state from the south
tomorrow afternoon, which will bring a large swath of precipitation
across the area through Tuesday morning/early afternoon. Guidance is
showing that we will start off this afternoon/evening with cold
rain, and transition into a wintry precipitation situation overnight
and into Tuesday morning in some areas. Mixed precipitation
continues to be a possibility, but probabilities continue. Right
now, the area north of I-40 looks to be the most likely to receive
this mixed/wintry precipitation. Probabilities of at least 0.01" of
freezing rain, so not a lot but still enough to cause some problems,
are less than 20%. This is a decent drop from the higher
probabilities in the models yesterday evening. Snow totals have also
dropped for this event, with expected snow totals right now under
half an inch. The area remains north of I-40 for those most likely
to see snow, with probabilities for over half an inch around 20 -
40% north of I-40.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1111 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

The pattern after this system will remain active in Middle
Tennessee. Another system will end our brief cold and dry period,
which will bring more precipitation to the mid-state. Looks like it
could be another mixed precipitation event as well, so we will
continue to monitor these tricky systems in the forecast. Below-
normal temperatures look to persist through the forecast period as
well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1025 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Northeasterly winds will become more easterly after 12Z, with
mostly high clouds through the day. In the 18Z-00Z time frame more
mid-clouds will begin to creep in, with a rapid reduction in CIGS
and VIS around 00Z as precipitation moves in from the south. by
about 03Z MVFR VIS and IFR CIGS can be expected at all TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      25  47  33  38 /   0  30 100  10
Clarksville    22  44  29  35 /   0  30  90  10
Crossville     20  46  30  37 /   0  30 100  40
Columbia       24  47  31  39 /   0  50 100  10
Cookeville     22  48  31  36 /   0  30 100  30
Jamestown      21  46  30  36 /   0  20 100  40
Lawrenceburg   23  48  32  38 /   0  50 100  10
Murfreesboro   23  49  32  38 /   0  40 100  20
Waverly        22  43  28  36 /   0  40 100  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....05