087
FXUS64 KOHX 120528
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1228 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1222 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

- Unsettled conditions through Tuesday with a medium to high
  chance for showers and thunderstorms. No severe storms expected
  at this time.

- Warming trend begins Wednesday, with above-normal temperatures
  forecast into the upcoming weekend.

- Showers and thunderstorms return Friday. Monitoring for severe
  weather potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 817 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

A surface and upper low are circulating over Louisiana this
evening, and the southerly flow coming out of the gulf is pushing
abundant moisture into Middle Tennessee, which is one reason why
we`ve experienced an increase in convective activity late this
afternoon and evening. During the next 48 hrs., this system will
track across or very close to the mid state, and this will help
maintain medium to high PoPs over the area through Tuesday.
Fortunately, the risk of severe storms remains very low during
this period. The active weather pattern will settle down somewhat
by Tuesday evening, but the reprieve will be only temporary.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 817 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Temperatures are going to warm considerably Wednesday and Thursday
while our rain chances remain low. Thursday`s high temperatures
will approach 90 degrees across a large portion of Middle
Tennessee, and the mid to upper 80s on Friday. Rain and storm
chances will resume by Friday, and an early look at forecast
soundings suggests that considerable instability will develop in
this warm and relatively moist environment. An upper trough looks
to come through the mid state late Friday or Friday evening, so we
will be paying close attention to our severe storm potential
during this time frame. Low to medium rain chances will persist
through the weekend with continued warm temperatures. The 6-10 day
outlook suggests no cessation in this pattern, although the 8-14
day outlook hints at cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Waves of moisture will continue to push sporadic showers and
thunderstorms across the region. A large shield of MVFR cigs is
moving north and will impact terminals in the next 2 to 3 hours.
Light and widely scattered showers are noted on radar at this
time, with an increase in activity expected after 12Z. VFR cigs
look to return after 18Z with TSRA chances through the afternoon.
Easterly winds will shift out of SSE through the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      79  61  77  62 /  60  40  90  20
Clarksville    77  59  77  61 /  70  30  70  10
Crossville     73  58  72  56 /  70  40 100  30
Columbia       78  59  75  60 /  60  30  80  20
Cookeville     76  59  72  59 /  70  40 100  20
Jamestown      75  58  74  56 /  70  40 100  20
Lawrenceburg   77  59  74  60 /  60  40  80  20
Murfreesboro   79  59  76  61 /  60  40  90  20
Waverly        76  59  75  60 /  60  30  70  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Baggett