276
FXUS64 KOHX 261721
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1221 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1210 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

- Temperatures will increase next week, approaching record values
  on Tuesday.

- An unsettled pattern will return next week with medium to high
  chances for showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday through
  Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

An upper level trough and surface low are tacking into the
Northeast pushing a cold front through Middle TN. As the front
works south through the region we will see clearing skies behind
the front and will have a nice afternoon and evening. Highs will
be a touch cooler today with them coolest in the north with lower
70s and mid to upper 70s south. Mid to high level clouds will work
back into the area this evening and overnight as a short wave
spins around the long wave ridge set up over the central part of
the country. This will keep fog chances low tonight with
temperatures falling into the 50s.

Upper level ridge will be building in from the west on Sunday with
surface high pressure sitting to our north. This will bring great
weather with highs in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Overall we will continue to see quiet weather for the start of the
week as the apex of the ridge sets up over us and high pressure
pushes to our east. This will bring southerly flow and warm us
back into the 80s. A weak short wave spinning around the ridge may
bring a low chance for shower on Monday but the chances look very
low.

A robust short wave trough will then track out of the northern
Rockies with a surface low deepening over the northern Plains and
Great Lakes. This will bring active weather to the Midwest Monday
and push a cold front south into our area Tuesday afternoon.
Ensembles favor stalling the cold front out right near the TN/KY
boarder but there is some uncertainty on far south the front will
make it. The better instability and dynamics is expected to remain
to our north but we will still see 800-1300 j/kg of CAPE build in
during the afternoon. 0-6 km shear will be 25-35 knots and lapse
rates don`t look awful. If the forcing with the front pushes far
enough south we could see a few stronger storms Tuesday afternoon
and evening, the best chances would be north towards the TN/KY
boarder. The front will linger across the region on Wednesday
likely setting up just to our north. This will keep showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast.

As we head into Thursday a trough will come out of the Four
Corners region and that will lift the stationary front north and
then push a cold front into our area Thursday evening into
Thursday night. Parameters don`t look bad for some stronger storms
mainly over the western part of the area but this is still many
days out and a lot can change with timing and location of things.
The front may linger over eastern areas into Friday afternoon
keeping showers in the forecast. Upper level ridge will bring the
return of quiet weather next weekend. Highs will be in the 80s
throughout the week with some cooling back into the 70s Friday and
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

MVFR Clouds are slowly clearing out and expect SKC to SCT VFR
clouds to linger at BNA and MQY through the afternoon, but
sticking around for SRB and CSV until 00Z. Overnight, skies will
be clear with winds becoming northeasterly by 12Z, with speeds
decreasing slightly to around 5kts or less. Models indicate some
mid to high clouds will return late in the TAF period, but
remaning VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      53  75  58  87 /   0  10  10  20
Clarksville    52  72  56  86 /   0  10  10  10
Crossville     46  73  54  79 /   0   0  10  20
Columbia       52  75  57  85 /   0  10  10  20
Cookeville     49  73  56  81 /   0  10  20  20
Jamestown      46  72  53  80 /   0  10  20  20
Lawrenceburg   51  75  58  84 /   0   0  10  10
Murfreesboro   51  75  57  86 /   0  10  10  20
Waverly        52  72  57  87 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....05