039
FXUS64 KOHX 150758
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
158 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 119 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

A very distinct clearing line is slowly moving from west to east
across the western half of Middle TN tonight. For those under cloud
cover on the Plateau, you`ll likely wake up still socked in, but if
you`re around I-65 you have a better chance of a sunny sunrise
this morning. It`s been another mild night with lows staying in
the upper 40s for those stuck under clouds and dropping into the
low 40s under clearing skies. After the couple of damp days we`ve
had, expect things to dry out today as upper level ridging moves
over the eastern U.S. Temperatures should be a few degrees cooler
Saturday morning allowing for increased fog development then.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 119 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

The ridge axis will pass over the mid state on Saturday, but
we`ll stay dry with less and less cloud cover through Sunday. As a
broad trough slowly moves east across the plains states on Monday,
winds will turn out of the south over the Tennessee Valley. Showers
may arrive as early as Monday evening with much better chances
Tuesday. The surface low driving this round of rain will make a
run towards the Great Lakes leaving behind little support for
storms as the precip pushes into the west. With the warm
temperatures that will likely be in place, some rumbles of thunder
aren`t out of the question, but right now we`re not expecting
much more than that. Even precip totals look light. Ensembles are
hinting at less than a 20% chance the mid state will see more
than 1 inch of rain through Thursday. A deepening wave in the
upper trough is forecast to push into the Ohio River Valley as we
head into Wednesday and this threatens to bring another shot of
rain...still light...but perhaps more importantly a shot of colder
(or at least seasonably cool air). Even with this colder wave,
Nashville is unlikely to see freezing temperatures anytime in the
extended portion of the forecast. Ensembles do show Crossville
with at least a 30% chance of getting to 32 degrees next Friday
morning.

High temperatures will be in the low 70s Sunday through Tuesday,
then drop several degrees Wednesday through the end of the week as
an upper trough pushes across the eastern U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1042 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

MVFR cigs will continue to impact terminals through the TAF
period. Brief IFR and even LIFR cigs possible at KCSV/KSRB
overnight as well. Cloud edge off to the west is getting close to
KCKV, and may see VFR cigs, but models want to keep cloud cover
building in from the north. Northerly winds around 5 knots can be
expected, with VFR conditions possibly returning by mid to late
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      61  44  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    59  42  65  43 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     54  37  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       59  40  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     54  40  64  41 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      54  40  62  39 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   59  38  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   58  40  64  42 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        59  42  64  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Whitehead
LONG TERM....Whitehead
AVIATION.....Barnwell