408
FXUS64 KOHX 281729
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1129 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1122 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

- Elevated fire danger through this evening with low relative
  humidity and 10-15 mph southwest winds gusting to 25-30 mph.

- High chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday. Confidence is
  low for the potential for severe thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1057 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

The weather is beautiful today across Middle TN today with clear
skies and temperatures sitting in the 50s. We are still very dry,
and gusty southerly winds are drying us out further with current
dewpoints in the 20s. Zooming out of Middle TN, there is a cold
front approaching us from the northwest. This cold front sweeps
through the area tonight and into early Saturday morning. With no
moisture associated with this front, dry conditions will persist.
But temperatures will cool through the weekend. High temperatures
Saturday will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler compared to today, and
continued CAA with northerly flow will result in 40s for highs on
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1057 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

A more active pattern presents itself early next week with a couple
upper-level lows moving out of the southern Rockies. The first one
tracks across the Great Plains Monday, and ahead of this, our winds
become southerly which helps our temperatures begin to bounce back
from this weekend. This low weakens significantly as it approaches
Middle TN, but its enough to warrant low chances (20 to 30 percent)
for rain Monday afternoon and evening. With no strong moisture
advection ahead of this system, our rain totals are expected to be
light with only a 30% chance that our totals exceed a tenth of an
inch through Tuesday morning.

A much stronger low then tracks onto the Great Plains Tuesday,
and it and its cold front will send a line of showers and storms
through Middle TN through the evening and overnight hours. With
this very dynamic system, wind shear isn`t a question. But as
previous discussions have mentioned, the moisture is. Dewpoints
ahead of this system are expected to remain in the 40s with no
strong moisture advection to help build the necessary moisture and
instability. This continues to be our limiting factor. It`s still
something we are watching closely for the potential for severe
weather Tuesday and Tuesday night.

This system exits our area early Wednesday with drier and cooler
weather being favored for the second half of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

VFR conditions persist this taf cycle. SSW winds are sustained
near 10 kts and gusts up to 25 kts are expected through roughly
06Z. Winds will relax some and start shifting at this time out of
the WNW ahead of a cold front that will move through the area
from west to east early Saturday morning. No rain is expected, but
winds behind the front will shift out of the NNW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      68  44  53  27 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    67  40  48  24 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     59  40  49  20 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       68  43  54  25 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     62  40  49  22 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      60  40  48  19 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   67  43  54  24 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   68  42  53  24 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        67  41  50  25 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Baggett