550
FXUS64 KOHX 041125
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
625 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

- Below normal temperatures will continue through mid-week.

- An unsettled pattern is expected throughout the week, with low
  to medium rain chances each afternoon/evening. However, the
  severe thunderstorm threat is very low for at least the next 8
  days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Showers have come an end for today, but partly to mostly cloudy
conditions persist as low-level moisture remains and an inverted
surface trough hangs just off to our east. This trough, plus a
developing upper level trough over the midwest will do two things
for us here in Middle TN through Wednesday: 1. low to medium chances
for rain with a few rumbles of thunder each afternoon/evening (with
the best chances east of I-65 each day) and 2. keep temperatures
well below normal for everyone. Right now, I don`t see any signal
for heavy rain, like we had in Wilson county today. However, overall
flow will continue to be weak, so this will need to monitored. No
severe weather is expected, either.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Thursday looks to be a day of transition for us. Diurnal showers and
thunderstorms will still be around, but we begin to lose the
influence of the upper level troughing and (weak) high pressure
starts to reassert itself across the southeast United States. I
think we maintain the low to medium storm chances each day, where
not everyone will see rain, but with temperatures starting to climb
back into the low 90s for many, we will return to a much more
unstable air mass. Those that do see storms will run the risk of
seeing a few gusty winds, heavy rain and lots of lightning. This
should be the case for Friday right through next weekend.
Fortunately, forecast soundings for the second half of the workweek
look rather benign with 6.0 deg/km lapse rates or less, so the
threat of any severe weather should be very low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

MVFR cigs have taken over Middle TN this morning and this is
expected to persist through 16-18z. Winds are forecast to favor SE
at 5-7 kts through the afternoon with VFR, though continued cloud
presence 040-060. Rain chances are ~20% or less for the afternoon,
so no TAF mention (thunder chances are low as well). MVFR makes a
return to the area tonight, with IFR/LIFR cig/vis looking likely
for CSV.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      84  68  85  69 /  20  10  20  10
Clarksville    83  66  84  67 /  20  20  20  10
Crossville     78  62  76  63 /  30  30  40  30
Columbia       82  65  83  67 /  10  10  10  10
Cookeville     81  64  80  65 /  30  20  30  20
Jamestown      80  63  78  64 /  30  30  40  20
Lawrenceburg   81  64  82  66 /  10  10  10  10
Murfreesboro   84  66  84  67 /  10  10  20  10
Waverly        82  65  83  66 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Sizemore